Category: Company analysis

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Focusrite

From touring with Led Zeppelin to a £193 million shareholding: Phil Dudderidge has enjoyed enormous success leading music-equipment specialist Focusrite. Maynard Paton recaps the investment story. The market continues to wobble and I have therefore kept with my ‘back to basics’ filtering. Applied the other week to identify James Halstead, this screen short-lists companies that […]

Weekly Market Commentary 21/03/22 | FNX, TCAP, LIT | Off Ramps

Based on conversations with a first hand source, Bruce believes the narrative about Ukraine may be too optimistic.  But would be very happy to be proved wrong in the next week or two if a cease fire is signed AND upheld.  Companies covered Fonix Mobile PLC, TP ICAP Group PLC and Litigation Capital Management. The […]

Weekly Market Commentary 14/03/22 | CKN, BGO, FCH | Frameworks for resolution

Bruce remains in risk averse mode, keeping an open mind and updating beliefs to see how the conflict in Ukraine might resolve.  He looks at Clarkson, which should benefit from high commodity prices, and also Bango and Funding Circle. The FTSE 100 was up +2.7% to 7,178, having had a very volatile week. The S&P […]

Weekly Market Commentary 07/03/22 | CLX, NICL, SPA | The rich trade of the Black Sea and beyond

Bruce looks at the root causes of the conflict in Ukraine, and outlines two scenarios that the Bank of Georgia research team (who know a thing or two about Russian invasions) have discussed.  Plus 3 companies reporting last week.  “All civil wars are dynastic wars, my lord King; all overseas wars are trade wars…Troy commanded […]

Weekly Market Commentary 28/02/22 | NWG, LLOY, BARC, HSBA | Banking on Price to Book

Bruce looks at UK banks’ FY Dec 2021 results and draws out some themes on revenue, profitability, “one off items”, competition, interest rates and price / book valuation.  The FTSE 100 sold off sharply last week down -4% on Thursday last week. US markets were more sanguine with the S&P500 down -1.4% and the Nasdaq100 […]

Roll-out, Roll-up and public market arbitrage | SBRY, PRZ, COST, DCC, MRL, BREE

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Jamie Ward takes a detailed walk through two expansion strategies and outlines the types of company and sectors where investors are likely to find these strategies as well as highlighting how to spot companies using them well. Two common ways for profitable growth for many companies can be summarised as roll-out and roll-up. Roll-out is […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: James Halstead (LSE:JHD)

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A wobbly market prompts Maynard Paton to search for potential ‘safe havens’. Filters for net cash, high margins and a pandemic-defiant dividend lead to vinyl flooring specialist James Halstead. Recent market wobbles have prompted some ‘back to basics’ filtering. Hence a new screen to identify companies that have strong balance sheets, robust margins and a […]

Weekly Market Commentary 21/02/22 |STAN, HEIQ, THG, FLTA, FRAN| Banking on the metaverse

Bruce remembers a former colleague, who preferred face to face interactions and was rarely at his desk during the afternoon (clue: he wasn’t in the metaverse either).  Plus comments on Standard Chartered, HeiQ and Franchise Brand’s bid for Filta. The FTSE was down -1.5% to 7,543 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -0.6% and the […]

Beazley PLC | Property & casualty insurance and diversification (LSE : BEZ)

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The task of investors is to find businesses that have created value, have a good chance of doing so in the future and are run by honest actors. This task is complicated by certain sectors where businesses don’t ‘look’ like most businesses. Jamie Ward returns with a look at Insurance through the lens of one […]

Weekly Market Commentary 14/02/22 |PZC, K3C, SOLI| Never says “never banks” again?

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Bruce suggests that while long term “expensive quality” investments have become increasingly popular as discount rates have fallen, a natural hedge for such a portfolio is bank shares, which could now benefit as rates rise with inflation. The FTSE 100 was up +2% to 7,617 last week. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 were flat. The real […]

Weekly Market Commentary 07/02/22 |RSW, JHD, JOUL| Quality can’t be quantified…

While he is away skiing, Bruce asked ex-fund manager (with 16 years experience) and private Investor Jamie Ward to manage his weekly commentary this week. Jamie looks at the best things about being a private investor compared to being in the Square Mile as well as results from three companies that at some points in […]

Weekly Market Commentary 31/01/22 |CBOX, DLAR, CNS|: All I want to know is…

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There’s considerable institutional pressure on financial analysts to be positive, but often the most valuable information is negative: what to avoid.  Bruce looks at a couple of case studies that reported last week. The FTSE 100 was flat last week, at 7,497. Matt Moulding’s THG fell to 134p, down -10% in the week and now […]

Cake Box Holdings has some accounting issues | Small-Cap Spotlight Report (LSE:CBOX)

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Cake Box’s shares have tripled as its franchisees sell more egg-free cakes and open more shops. But Maynard Paton discovers the accounts contain some unusual financial disclosures and alarming remarks from the auditor. Oh dear. I had expected this article to celebrate a dynamic growth company that had commendably prospered during the pandemic. I find […]

Rolls-Royce PLC | Investment in a greener future

As investors, we need to be nimble and embrace market developments wherever they may take us. Climate change, the topic of the moment, has sparked a cavalcade of “green” businesses that have caught my eye. My previous greener features include Insig AI (INSG), Kinovo (KINO), and *Powerhouse Energy (PHE) *before the valuation got silly. Rolls-Royce […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Ashmore

Ashmore PLC

Terrific margins, plenty of cash, a reliable dividend and a modest rating could make Ashmore a decent QARP stock. Maynard Paton studies the fund manager and discovers how lower charges have limited past growth. Shares offering ‘Quality At a Reasonable Price’ have been hard to find during the last few years. But recent market conditions […]

Marks Electrical plc | I liked the service so much, I nearly bought the company

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Richard was so impressed by his first look at newly listed Marks Electrical, he was tempted to buy something from the online retailer of cookers and other domestic appliances. As for the investment, he was tempted too… I do not know whether it is a glitch or a feature, but a quirk of SharePad has […]

DFS plc | Will the investment last as long as the sofa?

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Richard likes a business that is in control of its own destiny. He takes a look at DFS plc, the sofa seller that unexpectedly featured in his list of vertically integrated businesses. Of all the names that came up in my trawl for vertically integrated businesses, sofa seller DFS was perhaps the most surprising. To […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Goodwin

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30-bagger Goodwin has pivoted towards higher-margin contracts to widen its competitive ‘moat’. Maynard Paton weighs up the engineer’s haphazard financials with the delightfully old-school management. This quote from Richard Beddard caught my eye the other week: “If something truly special is incubating, we may profit from our investment for decades.” I am always up for […]

Four live pivots: Next, Goodwin, Bloomsbury Publishing and Victrex

Richard goes hunting in his own portfolio for companies incubating better businesses. They may be undervalued as a result. As promised, this week I am following up my last article on past pivots that worked with an article about live pivots that look like they are working. I used the word pivot to describe a […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Curtis Banks

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Specialist SIPP firm Curtis Banks has seen its dividend go up but shares go nowhere during the last five years. Maynard Paton now wonders whether the small-cap’s recurring income and high margins make it a ‘QARP’ stock. Shares offering ‘Quality At a Reasonable Price’ have been hard to find during the last few years. But […]

Should you buy SDI shares? | Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner

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Acquiring private companies that make precision instruments has propelled SDI shares to 12-bagger status over the last five years. Maynard Paton recaps the story and prospects of the ‘buy and build’ specialist. Everybody loves a share that keeps going up. SharePad lists 168 names that have delivered 15% or more annualised turns during the last […]

History of Games Workshop shares | When turnarounds become transformations

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Inspired by Maynard’s article on Hornby’s turnaround, Richard examines the history of Games Workshop to imagine what challenges lie ahead if Hornby is to emulate the success of this outwardly similar hobby business. The idea for this article came from Maynard’s article about Hornby. To my mind he convincingly described a turnaround that is already […]

3 questions about Oxford Instruments plc | Deep dive into financials

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Richard goes deep into Oxford Instruments’ annual reports and SharePad for answers to three questions to establish whether it is a good “pick and shovel play”. In my last article I explained how I used custom tables to find Oxford Instruments, a highly profitable business that seemed to have lost its way and then found […]

Should you buy Hornby shares? | Small-Cap Spotlight Report

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Events at Hornby prove how turnarounds can take years. But fresh capital, better management and a return to profit could mean the model-train specialist is over the worst and finally heading towards a proper recovery. Turnarounds can be tempting. You find a business that has hit big trouble with a stock price at rock bottom… […]

Weekly Commentary 09/08/21: What $16 trillion of negative yields are signalling

Last week the FTSE 100 was up +1.1% to 7,111, Nasdaq was up 1.5% to 15,181, outperforming the S&P 500, up +0.8% to 4,429. Both the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong and the FTSE China 50 Index were up less than 1% last week. The US 10Y bond yield continued to fall to 1.19% […]

Should you buy ASOS shares? | Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner

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ASOS share news Fashion website ASOS is among the market’s greatest growth stocks, but a recent update knocked 18% off the share price. The P/E may not be outrageous if huge warehouse and IT costs can one day deliver a suitable return. One of my favourite screening strategies is to hunt for attractive growth companies […]

Making strides in forex: Should you buy Argentex shares?

I am sure many readers will be familiar with the impact of COVID-19 on the foreign exchange market. Subjugated to the rises and falls of major economies, the foreign exchange market faced wrath like so many other industries. As unemployment reached unimaginable figures, remittances fell to tragic lows. The year 2020 is a year of […]

Investing in Team17 shares: A team worth joining?

Richard is thinking about joining computer games developer and publisher Team17 as a shareholder. It would be a bold decision, but he would rather invest in Team17 shares than the closest alternative, Frontier Developments. The first thing that attracted me to Team17 was the financials. The second thing was the chief executive. That is because […]

Equals Group PLC: Are they making a comeback?

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  Equals Group Plc (EQLS) is a provider of international payment services. The company operates through the following segments: Currency Cards, International Payments, Travel Cash, Banking and Central. It develops a cloud-based person-to-person payments platform that enables personal and business customers to make payments in a range of currencies and countries. The company was founded […]

The Trader: Trading Turnarounds

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Everyone likes a turnaround. This is because people like the idea of buying at the bottom and reaping the rewards.

However, trading turnarounds can take a lot of time. Businesses are often slow to change and it is not a quick process.

This article will show you how to trade some potential turnaround stocks and give you some pointers to look at next time you are considering trading a turnaround.

Weekly Commentary: 22/02/21 – All Aboard for Mu Mu Land

At midnight, on 1st January this year, the K.L.F. released their back catalogue of music (hits such as 3AM Eternal, Justified and Ancient, Last Train to Trancentral) on Spotify and uploaded their old videos to YouTube. This was their first activity as a band since 1992, when they announced they were leaving the music industry […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: IG Group

For some time now IG Group has been flashing on my SharePad filters. The three screenshots just below show IG offers: High margins; Decent returns on equity; Cash-rich accounts; Attractive five-year growth; A lack of past acquisitions, and; A modest P/E. Those characteristics are an unusual mix in a market presently bereft of obvious quality […]

Roll up! Get yer easy returns here…

Bunzl, a company I investigated last year, is a classic roll up A distributor of everyday items consumed by businesses and organisations, it routinely acquires much smaller distributors, improves their efficiency and creates economies of scale. This reduces customer’s procurement costs, and improves the profitability of the mothership. To grow, the company has repeated this […]

Weekly Commentary: 18/01/21 – Reincarnation as the bond market

In the early days of a new Democrat presidency, the President’s campaign manager observed that: “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or a 0.400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate anybody.” The […]

Weekly Commentary: 14/12/20 – Taxes steering behaviour?

After a strong November and start of December the FTSE 100 was largely unchanged this week at 6566. More broadly, the signs of a cyclical recovery are evident: oil price rose through $50 a barrel and copper and other industrial commodities have also been strong. Airbnb IPO’ed with the shares closing on their first day […]

Nichols: More than Vimto

Having prospected for investments in the soft drinks industry, I think Nichols is perhaps the most intriguing of quite an interesting group. It has been enormously profitable and a steady grower, unlike the other candidate, Fever-Tree, which has experienced both extraordinary profit and extraordinary growth. Fever-Tree makes me nervous. Explosive growers rarely keep growing rapidly […]

Weekly Commentary: 07/12/20 – Vaccine inoculating risk tolerance

The best performing FTSE 100 stock last week was Rolls Royce, up 19%. The worst was Unilever down 6.5%, which suggests expectations of a vaccine are inoculating investors against risk. On Nasdaq, the vaccine stock Moderna, was the best performing up 44% in the last 5 days, while Zoom was the second worst performing down […]

Weekly Commentary: 30/11/20 – The platform bandwagon rolls on

FTSE weakened slightly to 6300 in the second half of last week, but the bounce of former “Covid losers” continued with Rolls Royce, Glencore, Shell and BP all up 8% in the last 5 days. Nasdaq continued to rise to 12152 and Tesla’s value exceeded half a trillion dollars. airbnb IPO Last week airbnb filed […]

Weekly Commentary: 23/11/20 – Expectations rising

We are beginning to see companies operating in the “real” economy announce raised guidance. Somero (exceeding previous revenue guidance by +7%), but also Headlam (materially ahead), Acesso (comfortably ahead). Saga share price was also up +57% during the week. The FTSE 100 is currently 6378, which is the same level as early March this year. […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Manolete Partners

I am always looking for ‘multi-baggers’ — investments that can double, triple, quadruple or more. And here’s some very good news: I have stumbled on a company that can find them for me. Not just the occasional five-bagger or ten-bagger mind, but 20-baggers. It’s incredible stuff, especially as the track record of success extends for […]

Weekly Commentary: 09/11/20 – Study silence to learn the music

The US Presidential election turned out to be closer than most people expected. Nasdaq up almost +10% over the week to 12078. Tech stocks reacted well to the uncertainty, but so did 10 year US Bond yields, which initially jumped to 0.9% before falling back to 0.78%. I’m not sure if you’d predicted the result, […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Jarvis Securities

Today I have returned to one of my favourite SharePad screens. This screen applies two ratios favoured by ‘quality’ investors — operating margin and return on equity (ROE). The main filter criteria are: 1) An operating margin (latest and 10-year average) of 20% or more, and; 2) An ROE (latest and 10-year average) of 20% […]

Weekly Commentary: 02/11/20 – Insiders selling at the top?

Last week markets sold off into the rising cases of Covid. The FTSE 100 fell 5% last week to 5561. Large UK banks HSBC and NatWest reported encouraging results, although the sector remained unloved. Directors selling Given the strength of the market’s rally over the last 6 months, and then last week’s sell off, I […]

Floored

James Halstead makes vinyl flooring, the kind we see in hospital corridors, GP surgeries, clinics, schools, offices, laboratories, prisons, factories, shops, trains and boats around the world. James Halstead’s biggest brand is Polyflor. The company’s social media accounts are a good way to get a feel for the product and you can take the Commercial […]

Weekly Commentary: 19/10/20 – On network effects and fads

“Fad companies are companies with good business models or good products. So, why would we be interested in shorting a company that has a good product? Because of the threat it presents to others and their likely response to that threat. For example, Netflix had a terrific idea of renting DVDs through the mail, which […]

Weekly Commentary: 12/10/20 – On content, distribution and kurtosis

Last week the FTSE recovered to just over 6000. The (perhaps inappropriately named) Bond film No Time to Die, was postponed until next year by its Hollywood studio, MGM, which has left cinemas in trouble. Cineworld is on the brink, a victim of an overly leveraged balance sheet but no product to distribute. Up until […]

Weekly Commentary: 05/10/20 – On uncertainty and confidence

Last week Andy Haldane at the Bank of England gave an interesting speech on “Economic Anxiety” noting that pessimism can be as contagious as the disease. Haldane is most famous for his “Dog and the Frisbee” speech, which he co-wrote with the famous psychologist Gerd Gigarenzer in 2012. Catching a frisbee is difficult; theoretically it […]

What does not kill a business can make it stronger

This article was not supposed to be about paper maker James Cropper. I set out to write about Animalcare, a veterinary pharmaceutical company, but I quickly became disillusioned, wretched even. You probably will hear about Animalcare one day, because it is an interesting business, but it is also complicated and its complicatedness was epitomised by […]

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