Watches of Switzerland shares have been stellar performers since listing on the London market nearly four years ago. However, since peaking at over £15 at the end of 2021, they have more than halved in value. This is despite profits continuing to grow and forecast guidance being maintained. The sales of luxury watches boomed during […]
Category: Company analysis
Weekly Market Commentary | 18/04/23 | AGFX, JTC, SIS, SDRY| Some thoughts on averaging down
Bruce shares some thoughts on averaging down when a share price falls versus supporting a company that needs to raise capital. Companies covered AGFX, JTC, SIS, and SDRY. The FTSE 100 was up +2.0% in the last five days to 7,902. The Nasdaq100 was up +0.1% and S&P500 +0.8% over the same time period. The […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: James Latham (LSE: LTHM)
Screening for a growing dividend, lowly valuation, net cash and decent director ownership leads to 40-bagger James Latham. Maynard Paton studies the timber distributor’s history, financials, management and prospects. I have embarked on further ‘back to basics‘ filtering to unearth a potential long-term winner for my portfolio. This new screen identifies companies that offer rising […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 11/04/23 | RAT, FRAN, G4M | Tech disconnecting from banks
We have seen a disconnect between the performance of Nasdaq 100 (+19% YTD) versus US regional banks (-28% YTD). Companies covered: two large acquisitions by RAT, FRAN plus G4M’s profit warning. The FTSE 100 was up +2% over the last 5 trading days to 7,788. The S&P500 was flat, while the Nasdaq100 was down -1% […]
Can Domino’s Pizza deliver again for shareholders?
Not so long ago, Domino’s Pizza was seen as an attractive growth stock with a lot going for it. Investors viewed the company as a classic retail “roll out” situation where strong growth from existing stores could be turbocharged by opening lots of new ones. This was then rounded off with an asset-light business model […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 04/04/23 | TM17, TBLD, KWS, AQX, BUR | Platforms for shareholder democracy
Platforms have made it easier for retail shareholders to vote at company AGMs, remuneration committees should take note. Plus a look at the computer games sector: TM17, TBLD, KWS and a couple of financials AQX and BUR. The FTSE 100 rose to 7,685 last week, an increase of +2.9%. The Nasdaq100 and the S&P500 were […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 28/03/23 | KAPE, SDRY, ALPH, EQLS | The End of Alchemy
The Swiss Central Bank’s balance sheet in 2022 shows signs that Credit Suisse’s problems were well understood, but harder for the authorities to resolve. Companies covered KAPE, SDRY, ALPH and EQLS. The FTSE rose +1% to 7476 in the last five days, most of which was on Monday morning. The Nasdaq100 was up +2% and […]
Is now a good time to buy Howden Joinery shares?
Shares in kitchen supplier Howden Joinery have rewarded long-term investors handsomely. For me, it is one of the highest quality UK businesses in the FTSE 250 index. It is very shareholder friendly, whilst its annual report is one of the best I have read when it comes to explaining how a business works. Howden has […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 21/03/23 | BUR, TCAP | Who is next?
With the ‘rescue’ of Credit Suisse over the weekend, Bruce ponders what might happen next and which indicators to focus on. Companies covered BUR and TCAP. The FTSE 100 fell -2.5% to 7,358 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.4% and 5.8% respectively, indicating that the sell-off in markets has […]
Small-Cap Spotlight Report Revisited: WANdisco (LSE: WAND)
WANdisco has owned up to ‘significant accounting irregularities’ and the prospects for shareholders now look grim. Maynard Paton revisits the software developer to identify the warning signs Small-Cap Spotlight Report Revisited: WANdisco (LSE: WAND) You can become a better investor by occasionally visiting the stock-market graveyard. One company that now seems destined for the cemetery […]
Born in the UK
Although Arm will list in the USA, there should be nothing to stop us buying shares in Britain’s top tech company after it floats. This idea leads Richard to a potentially rich seam of investments he has not previously explored: UK firms listed in the USA. Judging by the headlines, news that Arm is to […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 14/03/23 | IPO, FRAN, BGEO / TBCG | We wanted flying cars…
Following the rescue of Silicon Valley Bank, Bruce looks at possible read across to recent IPOs and IP Group. Companies covered IPO, FRAN and Georgian Banks BGEO / TBCG. I suggested last week that the rally was running out of steam. I was not expecting a bank run in Silicon Valley though (SIVB total assets […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 07/03/23 | CAPC, RMV, RCDO | Banking on Equity Returns
With the rally running out of steam, Bruce looks at long-run equity returns. The two banks which compete to publish this data have performed much worse than the average equity. Companies covered SHC, RMV and RCDO. The rally seems to be running out of steam. The FTSE 100 was down -0.2% to 7,917. The Nasdaq […]
Roll your own alternative performance measures
Richard looks at the good and the ugly in Hollywood Bowl’s alternative performance measures and concludes that the company has put a positive gloss on adjusted profit. In Getting to grips with Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), I explained that exceptional items are costs or gains that obscure the underlying performance of a business. This does […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 28/02/23 | AVAP, SLP, GBG| Letter from Berkshire
Bruce looks at the Berkshire Hathaway 2022 shareholder letter, which Buffett published over the weekend. Stocks covered AVAP, SLP and GBG. The FTSE 100 remained just below 8,000, and was down less than -1%, recovering from a sell-off early last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 sold off more heavily, down -3.9% and -3.0% respectively. The […]
Can Fevertree regain its fizz?
Investors are often intrigued with companies where the share price has fallen a long way. If it can recover, then there could be potential for big gains, especially if the company’s business can improve. Premium soft drinks company Fevertree was loved by the stock market five years ago, but has experienced a dramatic fall from […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 21/02/23 | KAPE, HL., BGEO | Cross border liquidity
Cross-border liquidity could be driving the market rally, so it’s worth keeping an eye on Central Banks in China and Japan. Companies covered KAPE, HL. and BGEO. The FTSE traded above 8,000 last week, up +0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 was up +0.4% while the S&P 500 was down -0.3%. The US 10Y bond yield has […]
Getting to grips with Alternative Performance Measures
Companies publish alternative performance measures (APMs) that remove one-off costs and gains from profit to give us a better understanding of how they have performed. Like all financial statistics, though, APMs can be abused. Investors should always check how they are calculated. Since making profit is the reason for being in business, many Alternative Performance […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 14/02/23 | ULVR, RDW, EKF, RNO | AIM’s IPO buy signal
IPO activity on AIM has hit a 20-year low, which Maynard speculates could be a buy signal for shares on the junior market. Plus coverage of ULVR, RDW, EKF and RNO. Another weekly commentary from me while Bruce is away. I had hoped the FTSE 100 would add just 1.2% to surpass the 8,000 milestone […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Telecom Plus (LSE: TEP)
Higher energy bills are supporting significant dividend advances at Telecom Plus. Maynard Paton weighs up the group’s illustrious growth and ambitious targets against a leadership change and unusual marketing. Difficult market conditions have prompted many investors to find safety through attractive dividend shares. Hence a new screen to pinpoint companies that boast a dependable payout, […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 07/02/23 | GSK, DARK, SOM, TPX | New FTSE Highs
As the FTSE 100 reaches a new peak, Maynard looks at another blue-chip measure setting record highs. Plus coverage of GSK, DARK, SOM and TPX. Bruce asked me to compile these commentaries while he is away on holiday. Many private investors swear their portfolios perform better when they’re not watching the markets, and a record […]
My partner is an AI
Richard deploys ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence program, to help him understand two software platforms we can invest in that incorporate artificial intelligence. His conclusion: this is not a dystopia, it is the start of a partnership. Unless you have been living under a rock, you have surely heard of ChatGPT. It is an artificial intelligence […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 31/01/23 | SDRY, NFC, SAA, BOTB, CWR | An indiscriminate rally
With equity markets and industrial metals like copper rallying at the start of this year, Bruce looks at some companies geared into the recovery. SDRY, NFC, SAA, BOTB and CWR. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,774 in the last 5 trading days. In the US the S&P was up +2.5% and the Nasdaq 100 […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 24/01/23 | ALPH, EQLS, CAPD | Currency markets and capital controls
Bruce looks at the government’s misguided attempt to defend the pound with capital controls in the 1970s. Companies covered are forex traders ALPH and EQLS, plus CAPD. The FTSE 100 was down 0.9% in the last 5 days to 7,791. The S&P500 was down -0.3% while Nasdaq100 was up +1.39% over the same time period. […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Quartix (LSE: QTX)
Quartix’s vehicle-tracking services have delivered consistently attractive financial ratios. Maynard Paton spotlights how new customers and a good-value workforce are counterbalancing pricing pressures and rising costs. Today I have revisited a SharePad screen that applies two ratios favoured by ‘quality’ investors — operating margin and return on equity (ROE). The exact criteria I re-used were: […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 17/01/23 | GAW, TMG, FRAN, QTX | Terry Smith’s Triskaidekaphobia
Bruce looks at Terry Smith’s 13th annual shareholder letter and compares what he’s now saying about his META investment to his commentary a couple of years ago. Companies covered GAW, TMG, FRAN, QTX The strong start to the year continues, with the FTSE 100 +1.64% to 7,851 in the last 5 days, approaching an all-time […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 10/01/23 | NXT, CNC, HEIQ, FDEV | Weathering the stormy markets
Bruce looks at how the warm weather in Europe has been affecting financial markets. Companies covered NXT and CNC, plus profit warnings from HEIQ and FDEV. The FTSE 100 has enjoyed a strong early January, up +3.4% to 7,705. OCDO was up +20%, while IAG (the old British Airways) and BT were up +17% and […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 03/01/23 | SDRY | Ideas for 2023
Bruce asks the FinTwit community for some share ideas for 2023. Also looks at one retailer, SDRY, which could benefit from the recovery. The Santa Rally failed to materialise with the FTSE 100 was down -1.4% in December (and flat for the whole year). The S&P500 was down -19% in 2022, and down -5.7% last […]
Poolbeg Pharma
Regular readers will be aware that I have areas of interest when it comes to research and investing. The past few years these areas have been in the human microbiome, greener energy, including more recently in the transition to electric vehicles and the manufacturers of powertrains, electric batteries inside these motor vehicles, and pharmaceuticals. Today’s […]
One custom table to rule them all
Richard puts one last company through his process in 2022. It gives him a chance to reflect on how he has changed the way he uses SharePad this year. Towards the end of every year, I reflect on the year gone by, what has gone right and what has gone wrong, and how I can […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 20/12/22 | FCAP, GAW, ZTF | Mortgages v equity investing
Bruce looks at the BoE Financial Stability Report and ponders whether the rising cost of mortgages will cause forced selling in equity markets. Companies covered FCAP, GAW and ZTF The FTSE 100 was down -1% in the last 5 days to 7,373, with the Nasdaq100 -2.8% and S&P500 -2.1%. The FTSE 100 was also flat […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 13/12/22 | K3C,SOLI, MSI, SDI | Redemption Song
Bruce thinks that net outflows from professional fund managers could eventually create an opportunity for amateur investors because we’re not forced to sell when markets fall. Companies covered K3C, SOLI, MSI, and SDI. The FTSE 100 was down -1.6% in the last five days to 7,446. The S&P500 -3.4% and Nasdaq100 -3.6% were even weaker. […]
Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Strix (LSE: KETL)
Strix is the world’s leading developer of kettle safety controls, but a recent profit warning has sent the shares tumbling. Maynard Paton wonders whether the group’s competitive advantage can support an eventual recovery. A profit warning and 32% share-price crash brought Strix to my attention the other week: This small-cap dominates the market for kettle […]
A special business with financials to match
Market researcher YouGov is known for its predictions, but it may not be the accuracy of those predictions as much as their speed, quantity, and low cost that distinguishes the business. We have surely all heard of market researcher YouGov. A day barely goes by without the media disseminating the results of its polling. If […]
Weekly Market Commentary | 6/12/22 | C4XD, CRL, PEEL, FCAP | Santa Rally arrives early
Bruce looks at the bounce in markets over the last 2 months and suggests some ideas that could benefit from a recovery in risk appetite. C4XD, CRL, PEEL, FCAP We’ve had a strong rally in markets since the lows at the beginning of October, the pound is up +15% against the dollar and AIM is […]
Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 24/11/22 | CML | Nothing else matters
Bruce looks at a key aspect of long-term returns, holding on to your gains in down markets. Company covered CML. The FTSE 100 is up +1.8% in the last 5 days. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up +1.8% and Nasdaq100 was up +1.2%. China is worth keeping an eye on at the moment, as the […]
Putting the ‘f’ back into sustainability
Richard says finding a great business is only the first stage of finding a great investment. The second stage, establishing that what makes a company special is sustainable, is all about fairness. When buy and hold investors own a share of a business, we expect that share to grow in value as the business proves […]
Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1 | 22/11/22 |HVO, BMS | The Emperor’s New Blockchain
Bruce ponders if any large corporates are exposed as social proof in crypto disappear. Companies covered HVO and BMS The FTSE has been flat at just below 7,400 for the last 5 days. The S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 are both down around -1%. The China FTSE 50, has enjoyed a +22% bounce from its […]
Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 18/11/22 |CMC |Globalisation and index returns
Bruce questions why globalisation has been so bad for the FTSE All Share index versus the S&P500. Plus a look at CMC Markets H1 results. The FTSE 100 was down -0.9% in the last 5 days, at just above 7,300 with some of the selling coming as the new Chancellor announced his plans for tax […]
Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Trustpilot (LSE:TRST)
Many quoted companies trumpet their TrustPilot ratings. But is Trustpilot itself a 5-star investment? Maynard Paton evaluates the review website’s financial progress and business model. Read a set of company results, and chances are you will spot a reference to Trustpilot. Examples of quoted businesses mentioning the popular review website include: AJ Bell: “Our operational […]
Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1| 15/11/22 |HLN, BGEO| Timing the cycle
Bruce looks at a couple of stocks that have benefited from the US dollar strength / weak pound. HLN and BGEO. The FTSE 100 was up +0.65% to 7343 in the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were much stronger, +7.7% and 4.9%. Nasdaq has been strong despite the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX […]
Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 11/11/22 |ABF, AGFX | Questions left unanswered
Bruce suggests that company managements who are reluctant to physically meet investors could be facing a more uncertain outlook. Companies covered ABF and AGFX The FTSE 100 was up +1.4% in the last 5 days to 7296, while the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +0.8% and +1.0% respectively. The pound weakened slightly versus to 1.138 […]
Growing from a position of strength
As Richard trawls the stock market for high-quality businesses that are less pricey than they used to be, he takes a first look at Auto Trader, a company that is growing from a position of financial and competitive strength. Following on from Dechra Pharmaceuticals and Halma, Auto Trader is another high-quality business that has experienced […]
Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1 | 8/11/22 |ATOM,AFC | A look at hydrogen
Bruce looks at the FT30 index, which Sharepad has going back to 1935. Plus a couple of hydrogen stocks, that are currently too speculative for him: ATOM and AFC The FTSE 100 has recovered well in the last 5 days up +2.9%. By contrast, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -4.7% and 2.3% respectively in […]
Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 4/11/22 |LSEG, TCAP| You can’t eat vindication
Bruce looks at two financial businesses that recently reported Q3 results, both delivering around 7% RoCE. Yet one trades on 5x sales, and the other 0.7x. LSEG and TCAP. The FTSE 100 is up +0.7% in the last 5 days. Nasdaq100 is down -3.4% and the S&P500 was down -2.2%. Much of that sell-off came […]
Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1 | 1/11/22 |BGEO, CRPR| Costs for growth
Bruce looks at the history of Brompton’s growth, and the trade-offs required to fund expansion. Plus a look at UK banks margin trends and James Cropper CRPR profit warning. The FTSE 100 rose +0.65% in the last 5 days and managed to consolidate above 7,000. Despite US tech stocks reporting a difficult quarter last week, […]
Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 28/10/22 |SDRY, BARC, HSBA, LLOY, NWG, STAN| Numbers reflect reality
Bruce comments on Superdry’s auditor resignation and summarises Q3 trends at UK banks. The FTSE 100 rose above 7000 to 7,057. Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were around +3.0% and +4.5% over the last 5 days. Brent crude remains at mid $94 per barrel. The UK 10Y bond yield fell to 3.62% and the US […]
Ploughing through an economic blizzard
Digging deep into stock market sensation Halma’s history, Richard gains clues about the kind of businesses long-term investors should think about owning in an economic blizzard. I have never owned shares in Halma, in fact, I have never considered owning them even though the business has performed extraordinarily well. Halma: Proof that roll-ups can grow […]
Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1| 25/10/22 |AFX, WISE| Volatility subsides
Bruce looks at WISE and AFX, currency traders that are benefiting from the market volatility and rising interest rates. He compares their investment case to the UK banks reporting this week. Despite all the volatility of the last week, the FTSE 100 was actually flat at 6,937 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Redrow (LSE: RDW)
Difficult markets prompt Maynard Paton to search for asset-rich shares with depressed ratings. Screening for low price to books and net cash positions leads to house builder Redrow. Difficult market conditions have led to depressed ratings for many asset-flush shares. Hence a new screen to pinpoint companies offering cash-rich balance sheets and market caps below […]
Weekly Market Commentary 17/10/22 |AT., BDEV, DARK|Raising rates into a recession
Two very different US financial personalities believe that US interest rates are rising too fast. No doubt bankers and fund managers are talking their own book, but that doesn’t mean they’re wrong. Stocks covered AT., BDEV, DARK The FTSE 100 failed to consolidate above 7,000 and was down -3.8% last week. The Nasdaq100 was down […]
When growth stocks fall to earth
Richard takes a first look at Dechra Pharmaceuticals, a company that has grown profit at a compound annual growth rate of 19% since 2013, yet its share price has halved this year. The financial year ending in June 2022, was Dechra Pharmaceuticals’ 25th anniversary. It was also the year the company joined the FTSE-100 index, […]
Weekly Market Commentary 10/10/22 |IPX, SDRY, TSCO, AGFX, GRG| Coping with drawdowns
Bruce updates a chart Terry Smith first published in the FT in 2014, looking at Tesco EPS progress versus declining Return on Capital. Other companies featured IPX, SDRY, GRG and AGFX. The FTSE 100 recovered to just above 7000 last week and the pound recovered to 1.12 to the dollar. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 […]
Weekly Market Commentary 03/10/22 |NFC, ASY, SMV, BGO & BOKU| A look at large caps
Bruce looks at the performance of large cap sectors YTD, and suggests rules of thumb for trying to time the turn in different sectors. Companies covered NFC, ASY, SMV, BGO and BOKU. The FTSE 100 was down -3.3% last week, falling below the 7,000 level. The S&P and Nasdaq100 were both down -1.3%. The UK […]
Clues between the segments
Richard takes a look at the segmental report of Cohort to gather insights into the company’s costs as it grows in complexity. The segmental report of another business shows how difficult it can be for companies to decide what they can and cannot tell us. I am a fan of some versions of the buy […]
Weekly Market Commentary 26/09/22 |MOON, FDEV, KWS| Gambling for Resurrection
Bruce suggests that political leaders need a risk manager, to prevent them from increasing risk as a position moves against them. Companies covered MOON, and computer games companies FDEV and KWS. The FTSE 100 was down -3.1% last week to 7,012. US markets were also weak, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 both down -3.0%. […]
Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Shoe Zone (LSE: SHOE)
Top of the shops this year is Shoe Zone with a 46% share-price gain. Maynard Paton explores the discount retailer’s post-Covid progress and wonders whether the 10x P/E offers re-rating potential. Top of the shops among this year’s market carnage has been Shoe Zone. The discount shoe retailer has enjoyed an amazing 46% share-price gain […]
Weekly Market Commentary 20/09/22 |SRC, FEVER, ITM| The second derivative of expectations
Bruce suggests that the rate of change of investors’ expectations is more important than expectations themselves. Companies covered SRC, and expensive but becoming more reasonably priced FEVR and ITM. The FTSE 100 was down -1% to 7280 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 sold off more steeply down -5.25% and -4.1% respectively. The UK 10Y Govt […]
The pension timebomb at the heart of our investments
Prompted by a SharePad user, Richard scares himself silly when he examines how sensitive the pension fund of one of his shareholdings is to changes in the rate of inflation. Other people notice things that we do not, which is one of the many reasons I value the emails from people who read my articles. […]
Weekly Market Commentary 12/09/22 |AFX, EQLS, PCIP|Interest by the pound
With the pound falling by -14% so far this year against the dollar, Bruce looks at two companies that help SME businesses manage currency risk: AFX and EQLS. Plus payments company PCIP. The FTSE was up +1.3% at 7373 last week, with power and commodity companies leading the way Centrica, Glencore, Antofagasta and Anglo American […]
Weekly Market Commentary 05/09/22 |BMS, CBOX, BGO| Winter is coming
Looking at the sectors that have been worst hit by the cost of living crisis, Bruce suggests a sector filter could be used to ‘read across’ where problems are yet to emerge. Companies covered BMS, CBOX and BGO. The FTSE 100 was down -3.5% last week to 7,210. The S&P500 was down -2.2% and the Nasdaq 100 […]
Risky business
Richard writes an obituary for RM, his investment, rather than RM the business. It surprised him when it updated its risk report mid-term last week, despite what he had already learned. Perhaps it is because I do not scrutinise interim (half-year) results very often, or perhaps it is because I generally avoid heavily indebted companies, […]
Weekly Market Commentary 30/08/22 |SMV, KBT, SPE| Interest rates: the first 5,000 years
Central Bankers are having their annual shindig in Jackson Hole, so Bruce looks at the long-term history of interest rates and questions how much policy rates control activity and inflation. Companies covered SMV, KBT and SPE. The FTSE 100 was down -0.7% last week. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 were also down less than -1% over […]
Small Company Champion: The Human Biome, a developing health frontier (Part 2)
Our second feature in this mini-series on the human microbiome explores skin health, which is far more complex as well as exciting in terms of addressing important skin health opportunities. In this feature Elric Langton looks at two very different British Companies, both leading the world in skin care products, and science. You can read […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Cerillion (LSE: CER)
Cerillion’s shares have five-bagged since their pandemic low and remain near their all-time high. Maynard Paton studies the software group’s revenue profile, cash conversion and current valuation. Another month and another round of ‘back to basics’ filtering. Introduced earlier this year to identify James Halstead, this screen shortlists companies that offer cash-flush balance sheets, robust […]
Weekly Market Commentary 22/08/22 | MANU, DARK, TET, GHH | Just a bus stop in Hounslow
Looking at the returns from investing in football clubs, Bruce suggests the key is to identify well managed teams that have developed an effective way of operating. Stocks covered DARK, and profit warnings from TET and GHH. The FTSE 100 was up +0.9% last week to 7,571. The S&P500 was down -0.5%, and the Nasdaq100 […]
XP Power Ltd: Stick, twist, or fold (LSE:XPP)
A fellow investor is in a dilemma about one of her holdings: “Not sure what to do with the shares…” she writes. XP Power Ltd faces unanticipated challenges and the share price has more than halved. What should she do? An email from a reader has prompted me to think hard about XP Power. She […]
Weekly Market Commentary 15/08/22 | HAT, TCAP, OCM | Trust in long time horizons
Bruce discusses how long term compounders capitalise on trust. When applied shrewdly, this can be very rewarding. Companies covered HAT, TCAP and OCN The FTSE 100 was up less than 1% last week to 7,492. The Nasdaq 100 was up +0.7%, while the S&P500 was stronger up +1.5%. The US 10Y government bond yield continued […]
Weekly Market Commentary 08/08/22|BGO, KWS, DUKE|The orthodoxy of St James’s
Bruce suggests that if you’re looking for uncorrelated investment returns, you are better to invest your own money, rather than give it to a poker-playing long-short hedge fund manager. Stocks covered BGO, KWS and DUKE. The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 7,438. The Nasdaq100 continued to show good momentum +2.9%, but the […]
Finding quality flotations
Finding good investment ideas among companies that have floated on the stockmarket recently can be like looking for a needle in a haystack. Richard thinks he knows what to look for, maybe it is Moonpig. Some of my favourite new investment ideas in recent months have been recent flotations, companies like Marks Electrical and Dr. […]
Weekly Market Commentary 01/08/22| JDG, GAW, BOKU| Whatever it takes…
Bruce suggests that government debt to GDP ratios should include unfunded pension liabilities, and some of the issues from the Eurozone crisis a decade ago remain unresolved. Companies covered JDG, GAW and BOKU. The FTSE 100 finished the week at 7,423 up +2.0%. The Nasdaq 100 was up +4.5% and the S&P500 +4.3% with July […]
Small Company Champion: The Human Biome, a developing health frontier
During the three decades of investing, I have always tried to adapt to the changing landscape of the equity markets. This has included the use of investment funds, tip sheets as well as following economic commentators, but I have a passion for doing my own research – not to pit myself against anyone, but myself. […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Liontrust Asset Management (LSE: LIO)
Poor fund performances, sizeable client withdrawals and generally rough markets have left the shares of Liontrust Asset Management yielding 8%. Maynard Paton weighs up the fund manager’s pros and cons. Difficult market conditions have prompted yet another bout of ‘back to basics’ filtering. Introduced the other month to identify James Halstead, this screen short-lists companies […]
Weekly Market Commentary 25/07/22| SDI, RBGP, HOTC | The capital cycle
Bruce considers whether profit warnings in the insurance and adtech signal that too much capital has been chasing too few opportunities. Sophisticated data models are no replacement for management turning cautious at the top of the cycle. Stocks covered SDI, RBGP and HOTC profit warning. The FTSE 100 recovered +1.6% last week to 7,276. Markets […]
Sanderson Design: What now?
The fabric and wallpaper business is cheap and has a profitable past. Richard considers whether recovery will lead to sustainable growth… I am looking into Sanderson Design because an investor I know rates it and because as a former investor in Colefax, a customer and a competitor of Sanderson, I know (a little) about the […]
Weekly Market Commentary 18/07/22| CKN, CRL, TM17| Brands warning on costs
Following the profit warnings from Fevertree and Creightons, Bruce questions the conventional wisdom that companies with strong brands do well in an inflationary environment. Companies covered CKN, CRL, and TM17. The FTSE 100 was down -1.6% last week to 7,082. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -2.95% and -2.8% respectively. The 2yr – 10yr yield […]
Weekly Market Commentary 11/07/22| PRV, EQLS, AGFX| The seeds have been planted
Bruce looks at the BoE twice-yearly Financial Stability Report and wonders if the regulator is too sanguine about the risks of stagflation. Companies covered PRV, the industrial filtration company, and forex/payments companies EQLS and AGFX. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,162, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 were up +2.0% and +4.5% respectively. That stock […]
Dr. Martens: fad or timeless staple?
The world’s biggest bootmaker Dr Martens may be the strongest single brand company available to UK investors, but before he becomes invested for the second time in his life, there are a couple of objections Richard must overcome. Today, I am taking a first look at Dr. Martens, for three reasons: It has just published […]
Weekly Market Commentary 04/07/22|SHOE, WISE, DDDD |Containership contango
Bruce sees more trouble on the horizon for the retail sector, fearing heavy discounting of unsold inventory later this year. Stocks covered SHOE, WISE and a post-mortem on DDDD. The FTSE 100 was down -0.6% last week to 7,160. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 fell -1.66% and -0.27% respectively. The US 10Y Government bond fell back […]
Weekly Market Commentary 27/06/22|STEM, K3C, REC| Wirecard: fraud and flawed
Bruce looks at Dan McCrum’s book on Wirecard and suggests that there are still a couple of details that don’t make sense about the fraud. Plus upbeat releases from STEM, K3C and REC. The FTSE 100 recovered +1.2% to 7,101 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up 0.9% and flat over the last 5 […]
The promise and the peril: Learning Technologies
Richard takes a first look at Learning Technologies, a company aggressively buying businesses that make employee training and development content and software. Learning Technologies’ is a slightly bewildering agglomeration of businesses that helps organisations get the best out of employees. It creates training content for employers and makes software both for the creation of training […]
Weekly Market Commentary 20/06/22|DEVO, FDEV, BOTB| Remembering the days of Pali
Bruce reminisces about the demise of Pali, a firm he worked at in 2008 and looks at a couple of computer games companies (DEVO and FDEV) plus BOTB that reported last week. Markets had a difficult week with the FTSE 100 was down -3% to 7,114. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 both fell -9% as the […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: IntegraFin (LSE: IHP)
Difficult markets prompt Maynard Paton to search for ‘quality’ companies at reasonable prices. Filters for robust financials and director shareholdings lead to investment platform IntegraFin. Difficult market conditions for highly-rated ‘quality’ shares have prompted further back-to-basics filtering. Hence a new screen to identify companies offering robust financials, respectable growth, useful director ownership… and a reasonable […]
Weekly Market Commentary 13/06/22|ORPH, MRK, AO|Life sciences catch the software bug
Bruce looks at the spread of expressions like ‘platform’ and ‘flywheel’ from software companies to other sectors, including life sciences. Companies covered ORPH, MRK and AO. The FTSE 100 was down -1.5% in the last 5 days to 7,418. That’s better than the Nasdaq100 -4.8% and S&P500 down -3.8% over the same time frame. Brent […]
When the facts change…
Events at Luceco and Oxford Metrics may tell us more about the companies’ strategies, and whether they might make good long-term investments. Richard investigates. It is hard to believe Luceco’s share price is below the price it floated at in 2016, when turnover was 71% higher in the year to December 2021 than it was […]
Weekly Market Commentary 06/06/22|SFOR, IPX, OMG|The Price of War
Bruce looks at the performance of the UK economy muddling through WWI and the Spanish flu pandemic, an era when global trade flows and productivity also went into retreat. Stocks cover SFOR, IPX and OMG. The FTSE 100 rose +1.3% to 7592, in a short week due to the Platinum Jubilee. The price of oil […]
Weekly Market Commentary 30/05/22| AIM, KNOS, RNT, MORE| Analysing the de-rating
Bruce looks at how the market has de-rated on a price to sales metric since Q4 last year. But there are still 111 AIM shares trading on more than 10x revenue. Companies this week KNOS, MORE and RTN. The FTSE 100 rose +2.5% to 7569 last week. The S&P500 +4% and the Nasdaq100 +3.4% both […]
JDG V SDI: The Battle of Buy and Build
Shortly after Judges Scientific makes its biggest-ever acquisition, Richard sets out to discover whether the pasture is greener over at SDI, a smaller listed business that does much the same thing: buys and builds companies that make scientific instruments. If I were to use one measure to compare highly acquisitive businesses it would be Return […]
Weekly Market Commentary 23/05/22| OWIL, EQLS, FUTR, MONY| The value of amnesia
Bruce ponders the ingredients required to precipitate a systemic crisis, and why memories are so short in financial services. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7413 over the last 5 days. US markets had a more difficult week with the S&P500 -0.75% and Nasdaq100 -0.60%. The S&P500 is approaching bear market territory down […]
Weekly Market Commentary 16/05/22 |WATR, CCT, TET| Come on Eileen
With the BoE now suggesting inflation peaks at 10% later this year, Bruce goes back to 1982 when Dexys Midnight Runners were topping the charts to compare household indebtedness then v now. Stocks covered WATR, CCT and TET. The FTSE 100 fell -1.3% to 7286 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -7% and the S&P500 […]
New companies for the watchlist
Richard surveys the latest annual reports for promising long-term investments. Big Technologies, Digitalbox, Somero, and Xaar catch his eye, but only one of them holds his gaze. Still, a strike rate of one out of four is not bad. Almost every weekday I open a table of all the shares listed in London in SharePad […]
Weekly Market Commentary 09/05/22 |LUCE, RCH, SFOR, LTG| Lazy formulas
Bruce looks at how successful formulas, if copied without thought, can become lazy thinking. He looks at a profit warnings from last week LUCE and RCH. Plus a couple of acquisitive “roll-ups” which the auditors delayed signing off the results: SFOR and LTG. The FTSE was down -0.9% at to 7,443 last week. The US […]
Weekly Market Commentary 03/05/22 |ZOO, SWG, SMV| An infinite puzzle with no edge
Bruce discusses the concept of “edge” – now that we all have access to the same information, how can anyone enjoy an advantage? Companies covered this week ZOO, SWG, SMV. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,516 over the last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -2% and -2.4% over the same time period. […]
Portmeirion Group PLC: Portmeirion goes back to the future (LSE:PMP)
Richard re-examines one of his worst trades and considers whether changes at Portmeirion, the manufacturer of tableware and other home accessories, are enough to make him reconsider. Half a failed trade Portmeirion is one of the more severe of many blots on my trading history. I added Portmeirion to the model portfolio I run for […]
Weekly Market Commentary 25/04/22 |NFLX, CBOX, SOLI, CAPD| Lion King v Tiger King
Bruce questions whether the value of intangible assets on Netflix’s balance sheet are of the same character as Disney’s intangible assets. Plus a mix of UK stocks that reported last week CBOX, SOLI and CAPD. The FTSE 100 was down -0.2% to 7,563 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -3.5% as Netflix was the latest […]
Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Beeks Financial Cloud (LSE : BKS)
Beeks Financial Cloud offers investors a convincing growth story backed by recurring revenue balanced by hefty expenditure and a racy valuation. Maynard Paton weighs up the pros and cons. Every share has a bull case and a bear case. Our job as investors should be to consider the arguments from both sides, and decide which […]
Weekly Market Commentary 19/04/22 |ARKK, PZC, MRK, AGFX | Growth Stocks and the St Petersburg Paradox
Bruce digs out an obscure 1957 paper on growth investing, that Warren Buffett refers to when answering a shareholder question at his AGM and applies the thinking to the ARKK Innovation ETF. Plus PZC, MRK and AGFX trading updates last week. The FTSE 100 closed ahead of the Easter weekend at just above 7,600, that’s […]
Morgan Advanced Materials | Follow the fd (LSE : MGAM)
Prompted by the notion that executives sometimes vote with their feet, Richard takes a first look at Morgan Advanced Materials. It recently poached Victrex’s chief financial officer. A by-product of attending the Victrex Annual General Meeting earlier this year was the opportunity to ask its chief financial officer why he was leaving for the arguably […]
Weekly Market Commentary 11/04/22 |DEVO, IGP, AFM, ELIZX | Clubs money can’t buy
This week Bruce takes a look at Elon Musk’s Twitter activism and what the London Stock Exchange might learn from Musk’s other activities. Companies covered computer game publisher DEVO, online identity company IGP and management consultancies AFM and ELIX. The FTSE 100 was 7,619 +1.1% last week. The UK index of blue chips has been […]
Weekly Market Commentary 04/04/22 | TND, BUR, EQLS | Diversification through time
Bruce looks at how pound-cost-averaging can help when the investing environment is particularly uncertain or the relationship between asset classes breaks down. Companies covered BUR, TND and EQLS. The FTSE 100 was up +0.8% last week to 7535. The Russian stock market was up +28%, after it re-opened following it being closed for a month, […]