Category: Company analysis

Even as equity markets have rebounded, some early warning indicators are showing consumer sentiment has deteriorated. Companies covered:  THG, CCC and BGO. Brent Crude (BR$SP) has risen to $104 per barrel and is now up +47% since 26th February, when hostilities began in Iran. Natural Gas prices have been diverging between the USA and Europe, […]

Bruce Packard highlights why, despite a darkening near-term outlook, investors may still have reasons to stay optimistic for the long term, as he examines developments across Burford (BUR), YouGov (YOU) and Treatt (TET). The FTSE 100 was up +2.3% in the last 5 days, and is now 10,195, helped by oil companies, miners and pharma […]

Bruce returns with a looks at some of AIM’s top performers (EEE, MTL, YU.) since the market peaked in Sept 2021.  Plus results from SRT and CRW. The FTSE 100 fell -1% but remained above 10,000 over the last 5 trading days. The Nasdaq100 was up +1%, while the FTSE China 50 fell -4.6%. Brent […]

Bruce takes a look at Cathie Wood’s research on previous tech bubbles and what peak Capex to GDP tells us about the current AI spending boom.  Companies covered SLP, SFOR, NFG and LUCE. The FTSE 100, though rose +1.2% to 10,329 over the last 5 trading days. Nasdaq was flat and the S&P500 up less […]

Bruce takes a look at the causes of volatility in the natural gas price, and what this might signal for equity markets.  Companies covered CKN, EYE, CTG. The FTSE 100 was down less than 0.5% over the last 5 trading days, but remains above the 10,000 level. Nasdaq was off less than -1%, while the […]

Bruce Packard reviews a year where gold has outshone global equity markets, with a muted Santa Rally doing little to close the gap. He examines the forces behind the surge and assesses a mix of consumer, mining and leisure stocks. Companies covered WINE, JLP, BOWL, XPF. The FTSE 100 was up +2% to 9,879 with […]

Bruce looks at what divergent performance between energy commodities and precious metals signal about industrial demand and Central Bank liquidity.  Companies covered CAPD, CLBS and BVXP. The FTSE 100 was rose +2.4% over the last trading days to 9,656. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +2.7% and +2.1% respectively. The CSI 300 Index (Shanghai) was […]

There could be a bubble in more speculative areas in the US, but with the UK having suffered billions of fund manager outflows, perhaps UK stocks could now prove a safe haven.  Companies covered DIA, IHC and TSTL.

As gold has continued to perform well, Bruce looks at shares in consumer brands that have historically done well in inflationary times.  Company results covered: RPI, GDWN and FUTR. The FTSE 100 was down less than -0.5% to 9,275 over the last 5 trading days. In the US, both the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both […]

Bruce takes a look back to the 1980’s, for inspiration on how to fix London’s broken IPO market. Companies covered: NFG’s disclosure around its Mach49 acquisition, and transport software group TRCS. The FTSE 100 fell -1% to 9,162 over the last 5 trading days, driven by banks (NatWest down -8%, Lloyds -5%) as a think […]

A look at the valuations achieved by US-listed dog walking apps, Wag and Rover. Companies covered STVG, GRG, CBG and OCN.   The FTSE 100 continues to hold it’s level above 9,000, but was up less than +0.5% over the last 5 days and currently sits at 9,165. The Nasdaq100 was down -0.7% and S&P500 -0.9%. […]

How confident can we be that the tech companies spending hundreds of billions of capex on LLM will generate adequate returns? Companies covered MANO and AOM. The FTSE 100 was up around +0.5% over the last 5 trading days. In comparison, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up just under +1%. Platinum (PT$) is now the […]

A look at the number of companies leaving AIM, and whether brokers’ hope of a recovery in IPOs will help investors. Companies covered SDI, CBG and BEG. The FTSE 100 was up less than half a percent to 8,717 over the last 5 days. The index is now flat versus the start of April, just […]

A look at what has gone wrong at AGFX, including management’s voluntary disclosure around liquidity risk versus the reality of zero-zero margins. Other companies covered MERC and ELIX. The FTSE 100 was up +1% to 8,422 in the last 5 days. US markets rallied much more strongly, with the Nasdaq100 up +9% and the S&P500 […]

A look at why bull markets climb a “wall of worry”, but crashes are fast and brutal. Companies covered VLX, BOOM and CNC.   It’s been a wild couple of weeks! Here’s a Sharescope chart of how the major indices have performed since 2nd April. Apologies for the amount of red in the chart… The […]

A look at Larry Fink’s letter to BlackRock shareholders. The US asset manager has $11.6 trillion of AuM, and saw $281bn of inflows in Q4 alone. Companies covered AVON, BWY, VTY and FRAN.   The FTSE 100 was flat over the last 5 days, at 8680. US indices had a difficult week, with the Nasdaq100 […]

Indicators in the government bond, corporate credit and commodity markets, suggest little contagion from the sell-off in US equities. Companies covered: JUST, SOM and SRC. – The FTSE 100 was up +2.5% in the last 5 days, to 8,710. Nasdaq100 is now down -5.7% YTD and the Nasdaq Composite is the worst-performing major index, down […]

A look at Buffett’s rudimentary textual analysis of management discussion of mistakes and errors. Companies covered: QTX, IPF, WATR. The FTSE 100 was up +2% in the last 5 days to 8,832, helped by a blistering rally in Aerospace and Defence stocks, Rolls Royce +28% and BAE Systems +18%. Over the same time, the Nasdaq100 […]

A look at some of Cathie Wood’s “Big Ideas” and ARKK ETF portfolio. Companies covered PRV, PZC and BATS. The FTSE 100 ended the week around 8,735, up +0.4%. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.2% and +0.5%, respectively. The best-performing index YTD has been the FTSE China 50, +15% followed by the German DAX […]

A look at Rory Sutherland’s idea of “slow intelligence”, and if it makes sense to make processes less efficient. Companies covered: RNWH, BBSN, FEVR.   We’ve seen significant volatility over the last couple of weeks, first with Nvidia’s reaction to DeepSeek’s AI model then Donald Trump’s tariff announcements. After all that, the FTSE 100 ended […]

A look at a couple of stocks that are off 80-90% from their highs, but which may have formed a bottom with a +20% bounce last week. ONT and FDEV, plus taking a look at IKA. The FTSE 100 bounced +3.6% last week to 8,524. That’s ahead of the Nasdaq100 up +2.8% and the S&P500 […]

A review of investing ideas for 2025, including AVAP and AT. plus financials WISE and FCH.  Also covered TMG’s disposal of its US operations.   The FTSE 100 didn’t see much of a “Santa Rally”, down -1% since the start of December. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.9% and down -1.5%, despite enjoying a very […]

A look at the capex boom from Artificial Intelligence and data centres, and who the winner(s) might be. Companies covered: W7L’s bid for BAR, EAH and VNET.   The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 8,328. The Nasdaq100 was much stronger +3.3%, while the S&P was up around +1% over the last 5 trading days. […]

A look at whether rising Natural Gas prices might threaten the market rally, and whether renewables might help offset the pain. Companies mentioned NESF, TAM, TRU and MTEC. The FTSE 100 was up +2.3% last week to 8,294, helped by a weak pound. The pound has fallen -6% from 1.34 against the dollar to 1.26 […]

A look at how different asset classes have responded to the US election result, and whether there might be some inconsistent thinking therein.  Companies covered: ZTF, TCAP and SFOR, plus a brief look at the AQX bid approach.   The FTSE 100 was down around -0.5% last week to 8,125. In the US, the Nasdaq100 […]

A look at the movements at the long end of the government bond yield curve, and the implications for equity investors. Companies covered GBG, CER and PCIP. The FTSE 100 was down -1% last week to 8,223. The Nasdaq100 was flat, while the S&P500 was down -1%. The price of palladium was up +9% last […]

A look at what might be causing the divergence in performance between the FTSE Small Cap (SMX) index -8%, which has outperformed FTSE AIM (AXX) -44% since Sept 2021. Companies covered CAV, WYN and TET. The FTSE 100 was down -0.75% to 8,244 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up just over +1%. […]

A look at stimulus coming from the People’s Bank of China and deficit spending by Western governments, both of which seem expansionary. Companies covered:  IPO, OMG and ABDP.  The FTSE 100 was flat last week, bouncing around 8,270. In the USA, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than +1%. China on the other […]

Bruce looks at the reversal in the copper price, and what this might signal about global growth and interest rate expectations.  Companies covered WOSG, HVO and FEVR. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 8,273. US markets were much stronger, with the Nasdaq100 up +6.% and the S&P500 up +4%. That seems to be driven by […]

A look at UK retail fund flow data, from the Investment Association, which represents UK Fund Management Firms. Companies covered CLX, AQX and ESYS. The FTSE 100 was up +0.5% to 8,369 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -0.7% and the S&P500 was flat. Both of these US indices are up +25% YTD, whereas AIM […]

A look at Nvidia, which is forecast to grow sales by 11x since 2020, compared to Cisco Systems valuation in the previous technology bubble. Companies covered BUR, CGEO and GHH. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 8,294 last week. The Nasdaq 100 has recovered strongly from its wobble earlier in August, and was up +5.4% […]

A difficult start to August seems to be driven by the Japanese carry-trade unwinding. Companies covered: DATA, LTG, CRPR. Markets sold off heavily on Monday. The FTSE 100 fell -3.6% in the last 5 days to 7,974. Meanwhile, the futures market suggested that US markets would start the week badly. The FT contained an article […]

Some background reading on cybersecurity and hacking, topical in the wake of Crowdstrike-related chaos from last week. Companies covered TRST, RNO and CRL. The FTSE 100 rose +0.5% to 8,216 last week. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -4% and -2% respectively. For contrast, the Russell 2000 small cap index jumped +7%, encouraged by helpful inflation […]

After a difficult 3 years for London-listed smaller companies, Bruce looks at a couple of reasons to feel positive about the future. Companies covered: MOON, DUKE, EQLS. The FTSE 100 was up less than +0.5% last week to 8,194. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +3% and 1.6% respectively. China remains in the doldrums with […]

A look at mortgage approvals data trends, and how the Election may impact the UK housing market. Companies covered WISE, YOU and IGP. The FTSE 100 rose +1.7% last week to 8,274. The Nasdaq100 and the S&P500 were both up +0.6%. The US 10Y Govt bond yield fell back to 4.25% and yield curves remain […]

A look at the decline of the London Stock Exchange, versus the remarkable performance of the LSEG share price. Companies covered: BGEO, RFX, AGFX The FTSE 100 fell -0.8% in the last 5 days to 8,203. The Nasdaq100 was up +2.5% and the S&P500 +1.3%. The Nasdaq is the second-best performing major index +13 YTD, […]

With the recent +67% spike in Natural Gas prices, Bruce wonders if Central Banks might have declared victory over inflation too soon. Companies covered: KLR, FUTR and AVAP. The FTSE 100 was down -1.2% to 8,317 in the last 5 days. The Prime Minister called an election and there will be lots of hot air […]

Nvidia’s share price has risen by 8x in the last 18 months, yet it is not obvious which businesses their GPUs will disrupt.  Stocks covered AGFX, JDW and ULTP. The FTSE 100 rose +2.5% to 8,420 and continues to hit all-time highs. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.5% and +1.8% respectively. Oil was down […]

This week Bruce looks at long-term multi-bagger Jet2, up around 120x from its 2008 low, and Filtronic, which has announced a contract win with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Plus another bid from US Private Equity, this time for cybersecurity firm Darktrace. The FTSE 100 rose +1.9% to 8,175 last week. The US markets performed even better, […]

A look at a possible reason for the outperformance of large-cap US technology stocks, and what might reverse the trend in favour of smaller companies. Stocks covered: ZOO, KETL, TMG. The FTSE 100 was up +0.9% last week to 7,952. Nasdaq100 was down -0.3% while the S&P500 was up by a similar amount. China resumed […]

A look at two charts that suggest reasons for growing optimism, even as the UK performance has lagged other markets. Companies covered CEY, CBG and ANP. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% last week to 7,869. The Nasdaq100 was also strong up +3% and the S&P500 up +2.3%. China and Japan enjoyed contrasting fortunes last […]

A look at the performance of gold, and some dividend yield paying shares which should also benefit from the rising gold price.  Companies covered: HAT, CAPD and BGEO.    The FTSE 100 was up +1% to 7,749 last week. Meanwhile, Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -1.2% and -0.2% respectively. The FTSE China 50 has now […]

A look at how commodity prices have performed since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Companies covered: BKS, FCH and NEXN. The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 7,629, as were the S&P500 and the FTSE China 50. The Nasdaq100 was down -1.5%. Bitcoin rose +9% to within touching distance of $70K and gold was up […]

A trend following signal for AIM is close to turning positive, so we could see confidence return in smaller UK stocks.  Companies covered: ENSI, ADF and RMV. The FTSE 100 was down -0.4% to 7,659 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +2.0 and +1.0% respectively. In the US the bull market continues, with […]

Bruce looks at an old equity research note from 1993 and ponders if in some sectors customers receive a better deal than shareholders. Companies covered BARC, HL., LOK, ARC The FTSE 100 fell -0.6% last week to 7,683. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +0.5% and +1.7% respectively. The excitement was provided by Nvidia results, […]

Bruce remembers a metaphor from the founder of the Georgian Stock Exchange and wonders how it might apply to Chinese financial markets. Companies covered: FEVR, ELCO, FNX, BOKU. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% to 7653 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.4% and 1.1%. Brent Crude was up +4% in the last 5 […]

While active fund managers are seeing redemptions, platforms like AJB and IHP have been reporting healthy quarterly inflows.  Other stocks covered DPP, NXQ, CRPR. The FTSE 100 fell -1.7% last week to 7,466. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.9% and 1.25% respectively. US markets are enjoying a reasonably strong start to the year, and are […]

Terry Smith has published his annual performance update letter, plus a look at companies in the listed active fund manager sector. Companies covered JUP, ASHM, IPX, POLR, PMI.   The FTSE 100 fell -1% to 7613 last week. The Nasdaq100 was up +3.2% and the S&P was up +1.8% in the last five trading days. […]

Bruce looks at why the inverted yield curve seems to have sent a false signal about a recession.  Companies covered: JD. and CMCX.   The FTSE 100 fell -0.9% to 7,658 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -3.5% and the S&P500 was down -1.8%. The FTSE China 50 was the worst performing index, down -4.7% […]

Bruce reviews 2023 performance and the outlook for this year. Plus a detailed write-up of aircraft leasing business AVAP.   Last year the Nasdaq 100 was the best-performing major index, up +54%, followed by Japan’s Nikkei. Not something that many people would have predicted. The S&P500 also did well +24% last year, followed by the […]

With Central Banks turning dovish, Bruce looks for the 16 / 64 day moving average crossover to call the turn to a more bullish market in 2024. Stocks covered investment platforms AJB, HL. plus defence stocks CHRT and MSI. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 7617 last week. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up […]