Category: Company analysis

Weekly Market Commentary | 14/05/2024 | AGFX, JDW, ULTP | Professional button pushers

Nvidia’s share price has risen by 8x in the last 18 months, yet it is not obvious which businesses their GPUs will disrupt.  Stocks covered AGFX, JDW and ULTP. The FTSE 100 rose +2.5% to 8,420 and continues to hit all-time highs. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.5% and +1.8% respectively. Oil was down […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 30/04/2024 | JET2, FTC, DARK | Accountability sinks

This week Bruce looks at long-term multi-bagger Jet2, up around 120x from its 2008 low, and Filtronic, which has announced a contract win with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Plus another bid from US Private Equity, this time for cybersecurity firm Darktrace. The FTSE 100 rose +1.9% to 8,175 last week. The US markets performed even better, […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 23/04/2024 | DOCS, AML | A Clairvoyant’s View of the Economy

This week Jamie returns to a topic mentioned late last year; the use of Google Trends to get a sense of how sections of the economy are performing. He then discusses what, if any, investment ideas can be narrowed down. He then reviews the travails of two ex-private equity businesses with similar names. One he […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 16/04/2024 | SDY, NXR | As Safe as Houses

This week Jamie talks about the economics of the UK housing market and why he thinks that the house builders’ apparent cheapness is an illusion. He then discusses what he believes are better ways to invest in housing construction and rounds off by reviewing the trading updates of two companies, whose fortune is somewhat determined […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 09/04/2024 | ARR, FDEV, FUTR | Rising from the Ashes

This week Jamie talks about the remuneration of investment companies, reveals one of his personal investment trust holdings and explains his rationale. He then reviews the current state of Frontier Developments, which has gone from micro-cap to super-star mid-cap and back again in the past few years. Finally, he provides a brief review of the […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 02/04/2024 | ZOO, KETL, TMG | Challenging Goliath

A look at a possible reason for the outperformance of large-cap US technology stocks, and what might reverse the trend in favour of smaller companies. Stocks covered: ZOO, KETL, TMG. The FTSE 100 was up +0.9% last week to 7,952. Nasdaq100 was down -0.3% while the S&P500 was up by a similar amount. China resumed […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 26/03/2024 | CEY, CBG, ANP | A couple of important break-outs

A look at two charts that suggest reasons for growing optimism, even as the UK performance has lagged other markets. Companies covered CEY, CBG and ANP. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% last week to 7,869. The Nasdaq100 was also strong up +3% and the S&P500 up +2.3%. China and Japan enjoyed contrasting fortunes last […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/03/2024 | HAT, CAPD, BGEO | As good as gold?

A look at the performance of gold, and some dividend yield paying shares which should also benefit from the rising gold price.  Companies covered: HAT, CAPD and BGEO.    The FTSE 100 was up +1% to 7,749 last week. Meanwhile, Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -1.2% and -0.2% respectively. The FTSE China 50 has now […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 12/03/2024 | BKS, FCH, NEXN | A good thing that the world doesn’t run on chocolate

A look at how commodity prices have performed since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Companies covered: BKS, FCH and NEXN. The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 7,629, as were the S&P500 and the FTSE China 50. The Nasdaq100 was down -1.5%. Bitcoin rose +9% to within touching distance of $70K and gold was up […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 05/03/2024 | ENSI, ADF, RMV | AIM cross-over approaching?

A trend following signal for AIM is close to turning positive, so we could see confidence return in smaller UK stocks.  Companies covered: ENSI, ADF and RMV. The FTSE 100 was down -0.4% to 7,659 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +2.0 and +1.0% respectively. In the US the bull market continues, with […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 27/02/2024 | BARC, HL., LOK, ARC | Where are all the shareholders’ yachts?

Bruce looks at an old equity research note from 1993 and ponders if in some sectors customers receive a better deal than shareholders. Companies covered BARC, HL., LOK, ARC The FTSE 100 fell -0.6% last week to 7,683. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +0.5% and +1.7% respectively. The excitement was provided by Nvidia results, […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 20/02/2024 | GNS, ANIC | Yo Adrian, I did it

This week, Jamie discusses a solution to using return on capital employed when the capital employed part of the equation is missing. He does so through the lens of ARM Holdings, which became the third-largest UK company by market capitalisation last week. You have to feel somewhat for whoever compiled and proofread the trading update […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 13/02/2024 | RSW, DCC, BDEV | Rent vs. Own

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This week, Jamie talks about two types of equity investment those which should be held with the intention of an indefinite horizon and those that are expected to be sold. He then compares three companies, two of which he thinks should be long term holds and the other one only to be traded. The commentary […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 06/02/2024 | SDY, SDRY | Where there’s muck there’s brass

Jamie Ward takes over this week’s Weekly Market Commentary. Companies covered: SDY & SDRY. After a prolonged period of unpredictable economic data, most of the big releases last week were either in line with expectations or slightly better. Most of it wasn’t good in an absolute sense but taken as a snapshot, last week’s figures […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 30/01/2024 | FEVR, ELCO, FNX, BOKU | Gogi’s barometer

Bruce remembers a metaphor from the founder of the Georgian Stock Exchange and wonders how it might apply to Chinese financial markets. Companies covered: FEVR, ELCO, FNX, BOKU. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% to 7653 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.4% and 1.1%. Brent Crude was up +4% in the last 5 […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Sosandar (LSE: SOS)

Fashion website Sosandar plans to open shops to bolster its sales and margins. Maynard Paton weighs up management’s bold financial ambition against the wider sector’s haphazard progress. Fashion website Sosandar provides a fascinating dilemma for small-cap growth investors. Bulls will highlight the online retailer’s very rapid expansion and bold ambition to raise profits to £10 […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 23/01/2024 | DPP, NXQ, CRPR | Following the fund flows

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While active fund managers are seeing redemptions, platforms like AJB and IHP have been reporting healthy quarterly inflows.  Other stocks covered DPP, NXQ, CRPR. The FTSE 100 fell -1.7% last week to 7,466. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.9% and 1.25% respectively. US markets are enjoying a reasonably strong start to the year, and are […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 16/01/2024 | JUP, ASHM, IPX, POLR, PMI | Terry Smith and other historians

Terry Smith has published his annual performance update letter, plus a look at companies in the listed active fund manager sector. Companies covered JUP, ASHM, IPX, POLR, PMI.   The FTSE 100 fell -1% to 7613 last week. The Nasdaq100 was up +3.2% and the S&P was up +1.8% in the last five trading days. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 09/01/2024 | JD., CMCX | How the yield curve got it wrong

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Bruce looks at why the inverted yield curve seems to have sent a false signal about a recession.  Companies covered: JD. and CMCX.   The FTSE 100 fell -0.9% to 7,658 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -3.5% and the S&P500 was down -1.8%. The FTSE China 50 was the worst performing index, down -4.7% […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 03/01/2024 | AVAP | What’s in store for 2024?

Bruce reviews 2023 performance and the outlook for this year. Plus a detailed write-up of aircraft leasing business AVAP.   Last year the Nasdaq 100 was the best-performing major index, up +54%, followed by Japan’s Nikkei. Not something that many people would have predicted. The S&P500 also did well +24% last year, followed by the […]

Christmas Commentary | 29/12/23 | DWHT/DWHA | Google is your friend | Screening for Bargains

This week, Jamie Ward briefly talks about the latest update from Dewhurst. He then demonstrates that markets are frequently not efficient by reviewing the performance of a couple of the COVID winners to see if it can inform future investment decisions. Finally, he shows how to use Sharepad to screen for businesses that attempt to […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/12/2023 | AJB, HL., CHRT, MSI | Central Banks turn dovish

With Central Banks turning dovish, Bruce looks for the 16 / 64 day moving average crossover to call the turn to a more bullish market in 2024. Stocks covered investment platforms AJB, HL. plus defence stocks CHRT and MSI. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 7617 last week. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 12/12/2023 | CML, SOLI, SDI | Instability from property?

Bruce looks at the prospects for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and wonders if this will become a source of market instability in 2024. Companies covered CML, SOLI, and SDI. The FTSE 100 was flat last week, hovering around the 7,500 mark. In the US, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than half a […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 5/12/2023 | MPE, LTHM, MIND | The Singapore Comparison

Bruce ponders why some companies that operate in the same sector enjoy such radically different fortunes. Companies covered MPE, LTHM, and MIND. The FTSE 100 rose +0.6% to 7,506 last week. The Nasdaq100 was flat, while the S&P500 rose +0.8%. The price of gold rose +2% to $2,035, which seems to have been driven by […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 28/11/2023 | DPLM, SRC, CRH | Trust Your Process

This week, Jamie Ward talks about why missing out on some great investments might not be a bad thing, especially when thinking of the wider context where you may have invested in something better. He believes that having a process is far more important than whether you did or did not buy a security and […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 21/11/2023 | DCC, OCN | Low-Cost Mediocrity

This week, Jamie Ward returns to talk about how passive investing is logical but isn’t really investing. He also posits that passive investment cannot exist without active investment but the reverse is not true. Companies covered: DCC, OCN.  US inflation data set the tone for markets last week. The previous readings for US core and […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Judges Scientific (LSE: JDG)

Judges Scientific has delivered mega-bagger returns for its very early shareholders. Maynard Paton studies the growth and success of the ‘buy and build’ operator. Today’s rough market for small-cap shares could be the exact time to hunt for your next great portfolio winner. Take Judges Scientific, the £540 million group of scientific instrument manufacturers, which […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 14/11/2023 | DGE, BEZ, WRKS | Excessive Ebullience

While away on an Australian retreat, Bruce asked ex-fund manager and private investor Jamie Ward to manage his weekly commentary for the upcoming weeks. Jamie takes a look into Diego DGE, Beazley BEZ and The Works WRKS. Markets had a poor end to an otherwise rather uneventful week. This resulted in equity markets being down […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 7/11/23 | AML, ULTP, HEIQ | The bids keep coming

With two more bids coming in for small-cap stocks, Bruce looks at the average premiums being offered by buyers. Companies covered: AML, ULTP and HEIQ.   The FTSE 100 was up +1.3% to 7,426 last week. Meanwhile, there was a very strong rally in the US markets with Nasdaq100 +6.4% and the S&P500 up +5.9%. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 31/10/23 | CABP, OMG, IPF | CAB crash

As two more bids come in for small-cap listed companies, and another Private Equity IPO disappoints, Bruce looks at the trends that are shrinking public stock markets. Companies covered: CABP, OMG, IPF.   The FTSE 100 was down -1.5% to 7,291 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -2.6% and the S&P500 was down -2.5%. US […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 24/10/23 | STJ, HL., BPM, LIO, TMG | Forced selling creating an opportunity?

Bruce looks at UK fund manager outflows, both at an industry level and manager-specific level. Companies covered: STJ, HL., BPM, LIO, TMG. The FTSE 100 was down -3.2% last week to 7,384. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were also both down -2.9% and -2.4% respectively, with the FTSE China 50 off even more steeply at -4.7% over […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 17/10/23 | IPX, SDG, YOU, OXIG, MRK | Misbelief and markets

Bruce looks at what we can learn from Oscar Wilde and a half-bearded psychology professor on flawed narratives that capture people’s imagination. Companies covered: IPX, SDG, YOU, OXIG and MRK.    The FTSE 100 was up +1.35% to 7,596. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than +0.5% in the last five days. In Japan, […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 10/10/23 | BOO, PEEL, MTRO | Widening direct equity ownership

Attempts to widen direct equity ownership in the UK stock market are gathering pace, even as the high dividend yields on fund managers are signalling problems with that business model. Stocks covered BOO, PEEL, MTRO. The FTSE 100 was up +0.3% to 7,536 last week. The Nasdaq100 rose +1.8% and the S&P500 was up +0.5%. […]

Journeo PLC: Navigating the Road to Transport Innovation

Visiting an old friend in today’s fast-evolving tech landscape, few sectors remain as untouched by innovation as the world of transportation. At the helm of this transformation, one finds Journeo PLC (AIM: JNEO), a trailblazer in information systems and services explicitly curated for transport and local governments. The company’s recent accomplishment — a £2m purchase […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 03/10/23 | PZC, YU, SCE, GTC | Solving Greenspan’s conundrum

Bruce uses Sharepad to look at recent movements in the US long bond yields USTSY10 and the bondholder total return TLT ETF. Companies covered, PZC, YU, SCE and GTC.   The FTSE 100 fell -1.8% in the last 5 trading days to 7613. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were flat and down -0.75% respectively. The FTSE […]

Is SDI cheap?

Shares in SDI have plummeted. Richard examines the price differential between the company, a manufacturer of scientific equipment, and Judges Scientific, a firm it is often compared to. In the last two weeks, my 5 strikes system* has only surfaced two new investment ideas: SDI and Goodwin. These businesses have good financial track records, but […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 26/09/23 | HL., CODE, 4BB | Not just the UK housing market

Bruce suggests that government bonds and mortgages have been beneficiaries of Basel banking regulations over the last few decades. The effects of rising interest rates won’t be limited to the UK housing market. Companies covered HL., CODE and 4BB. The FTSE 100 was down -0.3% to 7,630 over the last five trading days. The Nasdaq […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: NCC (LSE: NCC)

Many great companies still can’t resist ‘diworsifiying’ in the quest for growth. Maynard Paton studies IT specialist NCC and its costly folly beyond software escrow.   “Instead of buying back shares or raising dividends, profitable companies often prefer to blow the money on foolish acquisitions. The dedicated diworsifier seeks out merchandise that is (1) overpriced, […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/09/23 | ELIX, FEVR, FDEV | Investing against the flows

Bruce suggests that rather than ARM’s successful IPO, the likely catalyst for more companies coming to market will be retail flows into funds. Companies covered ELIX, FEVR and FDEV. The FTSE 100 was up +2.6% last week to 7,688 helped by mining stocks and financials. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both down less than -0.5%. […]

Four companies with (almost) unblemished financial histories

Richard picks holes in the financial histories of four companies and finds little to trouble him. Remarkably Cake Box, a company that published an annual report riddled with errors two years ago, is one of them. As fishing expeditions go, my daily trips in the last two weeks have been particularly unfruitful. Few companies have […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 12/09/23 | BUR, STVG, WINK, CVSG | Chaos Kings

Bruce reviews a recent book Chaos Kings, on investors who benefit from financial crises and volatility. Companies covered BUR, STVG, WINK and CVSG. The FTSE 100 was up 0.5% to 7,494 last week and was the best-performing major indices other than the Mumbai S&P BSE +2.1% over that time period. Nasdaq100 and S&P were down […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 05/09/23 | SDRY, BNZL, PBEE | Emotional dividends

If the price of trophy assets like football clubs are wildly above intrinsic value, perhaps there’s a way for less wealthy investors to benefit from the same theme? Companies covered SDRY, BNZL and PBEE. The FTSE 100 was up +2.4% at 7,511 last week. The index is exactly flat on 5 years, though what 5 […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 29/08/23 | CMCX, EYE, TRCS | Join the sinful to regain innocence

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Bruce looks at UK retail equity fund flows, and their implications for future expected returns.  Companies covered CMCX, EYE, TRCS. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to close at 7,338 over the bank holiday weekend. The Nasdaq100 was up +1.7%, while the FTSE China 50 was up very strongly +5.1% as their Ministry of Finance cut […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 22/08/23 | LGEN, JUST, TRMR | An opportunity in plain sight?

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Bruce suggests that the nature of cross border capital flows might present an opportunity in front of our eyes, in FTSE and AIM stocks. Companies covered LGEN, JUST and TRMR. Last week I suggested that with the VIX below 16, some complacency might be creeping back into markets. Right on cue, the FTSE 100 fell […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 15/08/23 | SDI, D4T4, JIM | Cross border imbalances creating instability

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The VIX index is currently below 16, signalling some complacency may be creeping back into markets, so Bruce looks at the deterioration in near term liquidity measures.  Stocks covered: SDI, D4T4 and JIM.   The FTSE 100 was down -0.6% to 7,509, while the Nasdaq100 fell -1.6% and the S&P500 was down -0.3%. The price […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 08/08/23 | GRG, TW., DEVO| The Outlook for Approvals

Bruce uses Sharepad to look at H1 mortgage approvals data going back to the mid-1990s, and house prices back to the 1950s. Companies covered: GRG, TW. and DEVO. All three of the FTSE 100, S&P500 and FTSE China50 were down -2.2% in the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 was even worse down -3%. The US […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 01/08/23 | LLOY, TSTL, RBGP | An Engine, Not a Camera

Bruce makes some broad observations about how economists’ models drive Central Bank behaviour and interest rate expectations.  Companies covered: LLOY, TSTL, RBGP The FTSE 100 was flat in the last five days at 7,688. Nasdaq100 was up +2% and the S&P500 was +0.75%. The FTSE China 50 Index was up +3.9% as the renminbi rose […]

AG Barr – Buying Boost may re-energise its profits but investors will have to wait

Phil asks whether AG Barr’s recent acquisitions can turn it into a growing business again. Soft drinks companies are a long-term favourite with investors. Their products are affordable, small and regular consumer purchases which can produce a nice blend of steady growth and resilience which can make them all-weather investments. The giants of the industry […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 25/07/23 | ONT, DARK, HL., AJB | Base effects

With inflation peaking in the UK (at least for now), Bruce looks at some larger cap stocks that have broken through their 200-day moving averages on the upside.  Companies covered: ONT, DARK, HL., AJB  The FTSE 100 enjoyed a strong week up 3.4% to 7,658 as last week the UK’s inflation data was better than […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 18/07/23 | SHOE, MEGP, ZOO | The Buy-to-Let burden

Bruce looks at the prospects for the UK Buy-to-Let market in the BoE’s Financial Stability Review, and wonders if rising interest rates are driving higher rents, which could be causing an inflationary feedback loop.  Companies covered SHOE, MEGP and ZOO. The FTSE 100 enjoyed a positive week up +1.9% to 7,415, while the Nasdaq100 was […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Hotel Chocolat (LSE: HOTC)

Devoted company bosses do not always create great returns for outside shareholders. Maynard Paton studies chocolate retailer Hotel Chocolat and the board’s decisions and composition. I love ‘owner managers’ — company bosses with significant shareholdings who live and breathe their business and want to build wealth for the long haul. Typically, entrepreneurs, and owner-managers who […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 11/07/23 | KOO, SUP, SMV | Bank deposits and dividend yields

While the dividend yield on the FTSE and AIM indices is not high relative to history, it does seem remarkable that >8% yields are available on companies in so many different sectors.  Stocks covered KOO, SUP and SMV. The FTSE 100 fell -3.5% in the last 5 days, with the Nasdaq 100 up +0.7% and […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 4/07/23 | WISE, TBLD, DPP | Safe haven investing

Bruce looks at the idea of tail risk hedging but thinks that the strategy might be too difficult for private investors to implement. Instead, companies significant cash could be an interesting theme for H2. Companies covered WISE, TBLD and DPP. The FTSE 100 rose +1.4% last week to 7556, while the Nasdaq10 and S&P 500 […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 27/06/23 | MANO, SOM, HOTC, BOTB | And Quiet Flows the Don

Bruce suggests that unemployment, rather than interest rates, will be the driver of banks’ bad debts. Companies covered MANO, and profit warnings from SOM and HOTC, plus Teddy Sagi’s bid for BOTB.  After an entertaining weekend in Russia, one observation from a military friend who was in the Donbass, now in Libya, is that a […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 20/06/23 | W7L, FDEV, VNET | Stale blows the London IPOs

Bruce looks at recent trends in the IPO market and questions whether attracting new listings at any price really is good news for investors in London’s equity capital markets.  Companies covered W7L, FDEV and VNET. The FTSE 100 was up +0.5% to 7,618 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +3.8% […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 13/06/23 | OMG, GHH, OCN, ADB | A bifurcating bull market

Bruce looks at the divergent performance of the Nasdaq100 +22% since its October lows, versus AIM which is flat over the same time period. Companies covered OMG, GHH, OCN and ADB. The FTSE 100 fell -0.3% to 7,573 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both flat over the last 5 trading days. A week […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Belvoir

Screening for consistently high margins and ROE leads to property franchisor Belvoir. Maynard Paton weighs up the small-cap’s acquisitive history, super cash flow, visible management and immediate prospects. Today I have revisited a SharePad screen that applies two ratios favoured by ‘quality’ investors — operating margin and return on equity (ROE). The exact criteria I […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 06/06/23 | BOWL, BMY, DOCS | Copper’s super contango

Bruce looks at 3 companies on low teens PERs that reported last week: BOWL, BMY and DOCS.  But he wonders if copper is suggesting negative macroeconomic news that is not yet priced in. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7646 last week. In the last 5 days, the Nasdaq100 was very strong, up +4.4% and […]

Moneysupermarket shares could keep on rewarding investors

A business that aims to save its customers money should be doing well during a cost of living crisis. Phil looks at Moneysupermarket.com and asks if the recent rally in its shares has further to go. The business Moneysupermarket (MSM) is the UK’s largest price comparison website. It aims to save people money on household […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 23/05/23 | BLV, SHOE, OTB | Does the house always win?

Bruce uses Sharepad to graph UK house prices and mortgage approvals data back to the 1980s. Companies covered BLV, SHOE and OTB. The FTSE 100 was flat in the last 5 days, at 7,774. The Nasdaq100 was up strongly +3.4%, as was the KBW US regional banks index (KRE) up +7.7% while the S&P500 was […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 16/05/23 | MANU, SDI, CGEO | Valuing a Trophy Asset

Bruce uses Sharepad to analyse the performance of MANU shares, listed on the NYSE. The football team presents some interesting challenges for valuing debt-funded intangible assets. Plus SDI’s profit warning, and CGEO’s Q1 results. The Bank of England raised interest rates to 4.5% last week, as the FTSE 100 rose +0.7% to 7,754. Since last […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Reach (LSE:RCH)

Newspaper publisher Reach trades on a P/E of 3. Maynard Paton believes the rock-bottom rating reflects a pension scheme ‘black hole’. Let me start by confessing this article covers pension deficits. What follows is therefore not thrilling and does require some concentration. But please stick with me, especially if you have ever fallen victim to […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 09/05/23 | HEIQ, SDRY, LLOY, HL., KITW | Professor Altman’s Average

Bruce looks at Prof Altman’s credit analysis, going back 4 decades, suggesting US corporate default rates might rise above average, so understanding Sharepad’s Altman Z score could prove valuable. Stocks covered HEIQ, SDRY, LLOY, HL. and KITW. The FTSE 100 fell -1.2% to 7,737 in the last 5 days. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 were […]

Is SSE an undervalued renewable energy business?

Phil Oakley takes a look SSE (formerly known as Scottish & Southern Energy), which despite its history of unsustainable growth highlighting the dangers of investing solely on the basis of dividend yield may still be undervalued given long-term potential of its renewable energy portfolio. The dangers of investing for high dividend yields For years SSE […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 02/05/23 | BARC, NWG, MGP, NUM, SMV, AOM | A liquidity crunch?

UK banks BARC and NWG reported Q1 results, with contrasting trends in customer deposits. Also covered: bid approaches for MGP, NUM and SMV, plus a look at AOM. Last week the FTSE 100 was down -1.3% to 7,812. The Nasdaq100 was up +1.3% while the S&P 500 was broadly flat in the last 5 days. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 25/04/23 | MONY, KMK, THRU | Inflation and banking deposits

Bruce looks at the influence double-digit inflation is having on bank deposits. Companies covered MONY, KMK and THRU. The FTSE 100 was up +0.4% to 7,907 over the last 5 days, while the Nasdaq 100 fell -0.6% and the S&P500 was flat. The Natural Gas contract (NG-MT) was up +31% in the last 5 days […]

Have investors wrongly called “time” on Watches of Switzerland?

Watches of Switzerland shares have been stellar performers since listing on the London market nearly four years ago. However, since peaking at over £15 at the end of 2021, they have more than halved in value. This is despite profits continuing to grow and forecast guidance being maintained. The sales of luxury watches boomed during […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 18/04/23 | AGFX, JTC, SIS, SDRY| Some thoughts on averaging down

Bruce shares some thoughts on averaging down when a share price falls versus supporting a company that needs to raise capital. Companies covered AGFX, JTC, SIS, and SDRY. The FTSE 100 was up +2.0% in the last five days to 7,902. The Nasdaq100 was up +0.1% and S&P500 +0.8% over the same time period. The […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: James Latham (LSE: LTHM)

Screening for a growing dividend, lowly valuation, net cash and decent director ownership leads to 40-bagger James Latham. Maynard Paton studies the timber distributor’s history, financials, management and prospects. I have embarked on further ‘back to basics‘ filtering to unearth a potential long-term winner for my portfolio. This new screen identifies companies that offer rising […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 11/04/23 | RAT, FRAN, G4M | Tech disconnecting from banks

We have seen a disconnect between the performance of Nasdaq 100 (+19% YTD) versus US regional banks (-28% YTD). Companies covered: two large acquisitions by RAT, FRAN plus G4M’s profit warning. The FTSE 100 was up +2% over the last 5 trading days to 7,788. The S&P500 was flat, while the Nasdaq100 was down -1% […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 04/04/23 | TM17, TBLD, KWS, AQX, BUR | Platforms for shareholder democracy

Platforms have made it easier for retail shareholders to vote at company AGMs, remuneration committees should take note. Plus a look at the computer games sector: TM17, TBLD, KWS and a couple of financials AQX and BUR. The FTSE 100 rose to 7,685 last week, an increase of +2.9%. The Nasdaq100 and the S&P500 were […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 28/03/23 | KAPE, SDRY, ALPH, EQLS | The End of Alchemy

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The Swiss Central Bank’s balance sheet in 2022 shows signs that Credit Suisse’s problems were well understood, but harder for the authorities to resolve. Companies covered KAPE, SDRY, ALPH and EQLS.  The FTSE rose +1% to 7476 in the last five days, most of which was on Monday morning. The Nasdaq100 was up +2% and […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 21/03/23 | BUR, TCAP | Who is next?

With the ‘rescue’ of Credit Suisse over the weekend, Bruce ponders what might happen next and which indicators to focus on. Companies covered BUR and TCAP. The FTSE 100 fell -2.5% to 7,358 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.4% and 5.8% respectively, indicating that the sell-off in markets has […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report Revisited: WANdisco (LSE: WAND)

WANdisco has owned up to ‘significant accounting irregularities’ and the prospects for shareholders now look grim. Maynard Paton revisits the software developer to identify the warning signs Small-Cap Spotlight Report Revisited: WANdisco (LSE: WAND) You can become a better investor by occasionally visiting the stock-market graveyard. One company that now seems destined for the cemetery […]

Born in the UK

Although Arm will list in the USA, there should be nothing to stop us buying shares in Britain’s top tech company after it floats. This idea leads Richard to a potentially rich seam of investments he has not previously explored: UK firms listed in the USA. Judging by the headlines, news that Arm is to […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 14/03/23 | IPO, FRAN, BGEO / TBCG | We wanted flying cars…

Following the rescue of Silicon Valley Bank, Bruce looks at possible read across to recent IPOs and IP Group. Companies covered IPO, FRAN and Georgian Banks BGEO / TBCG. I suggested last week that the rally was running out of steam. I was not expecting a bank run in Silicon Valley though (SIVB total assets […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 07/03/23 | CAPC, RMV, RCDO | Banking on Equity Returns

With the rally running out of steam, Bruce looks at long-run equity returns. The two banks which compete to publish this data have performed much worse than the average equity. Companies covered SHC, RMV and RCDO. The rally seems to be running out of steam. The FTSE 100 was down -0.2% to 7,917. The Nasdaq […]

Roll your own alternative performance measures

Richard looks at the good and the ugly in Hollywood Bowl’s alternative performance measures and concludes that the company has put a positive gloss on adjusted profit. In Getting to grips with Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), I explained that exceptional items are costs or gains that obscure the underlying performance of a business. This does […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 28/02/23 | AVAP, SLP, GBG| Letter from Berkshire

Bruce looks at the Berkshire Hathaway 2022 shareholder letter, which Buffett published over the weekend.  Stocks covered AVAP, SLP and GBG. The FTSE 100 remained just below 8,000, and was down less than -1%, recovering from a sell-off early last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 sold off more heavily, down -3.9% and -3.0% respectively. The […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 21/02/23 | KAPE, HL., BGEO | Cross border liquidity

Cross-border liquidity could be driving the market rally, so it’s worth keeping an eye on Central Banks in China and Japan.  Companies covered KAPE, HL. and BGEO.  The FTSE traded above 8,000 last week, up +0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 was up +0.4% while the S&P 500 was down -0.3%. The US 10Y bond yield has […]

Getting to grips with Alternative Performance Measures

Companies publish alternative performance measures (APMs) that remove one-off costs and gains from profit to give us a better understanding of how they have performed. Like all financial statistics, though, APMs can be abused. Investors should always check how they are calculated. Since making profit is the reason for being in business, many Alternative Performance […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 14/02/23 | ULVR, RDW, EKF, RNO | AIM’s IPO buy signal

IPO activity on AIM has hit a 20-year low, which Maynard speculates could be a buy signal for shares on the junior market. Plus coverage of ULVR, RDW, EKF and RNO. Another weekly commentary from me while Bruce is away. I had hoped the FTSE 100 would add just 1.2% to surpass the 8,000 milestone […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Telecom Plus (LSE: TEP)

Higher energy bills are supporting significant dividend advances at Telecom Plus. Maynard Paton weighs up the group’s illustrious growth and ambitious targets against a leadership change and unusual marketing. Difficult market conditions have prompted many investors to find safety through attractive dividend shares. Hence a new screen to pinpoint companies that boast a dependable payout, […]

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