Weekly Market Commentary | 21/02/23 | KAPE, HL., BGEO | Cross border liquidity

Cross-border liquidity could be driving the market rally, so it’s worth keeping an eye on Central Banks in China and Japan.  Companies covered KAPE, HL. and BGEO.  The FTSE traded above 8,000 last week, up +0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 was up +0.4% while the S&P 500 was down -0.3%. The US 10Y bond yield has […]

Powertrain Transition – Are we Deluded?

I have written extensively about the forced transition from fossil-powered vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs). There is a lot to be said on the topic and from several market sectors, ranging from EV manufacturers, batteries, mining, recycling, and infrastructures, but what about the metals and the commodities? If you remain a lithium bull, then read […]

Getting to grips with Alternative Performance Measures

Companies publish alternative performance measures (APMs) that remove one-off costs and gains from profit to give us a better understanding of how they have performed. Like all financial statistics, though, APMs can be abused. Investors should always check how they are calculated. Since making profit is the reason for being in business, many Alternative Performance […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 14/02/23 | ULVR, RDW, EKF, RNO | AIM’s IPO buy signal

IPO activity on AIM has hit a 20-year low, which Maynard speculates could be a buy signal for shares on the junior market. Plus coverage of ULVR, RDW, EKF and RNO. Another weekly commentary from me while Bruce is away. I had hoped the FTSE 100 would add just 1.2% to surpass the 8,000 milestone […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Telecom Plus (LSE: TEP)

Higher energy bills are supporting significant dividend advances at Telecom Plus. Maynard Paton weighs up the group’s illustrious growth and ambitious targets against a leadership change and unusual marketing. Difficult market conditions have prompted many investors to find safety through attractive dividend shares. Hence a new screen to pinpoint companies that boast a dependable payout, […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 07/02/23 | GSK, DARK, SOM, TPX | New FTSE Highs

As the FTSE 100 reaches a new peak, Maynard looks at another blue-chip measure setting record highs. Plus coverage of GSK, DARK, SOM and TPX. Bruce asked me to compile these commentaries while he is away on holiday. Many private investors swear their portfolios perform better when they’re not watching the markets, and a record […]

My partner is an AI

Richard deploys ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence program, to help him understand two software platforms we can invest in that incorporate artificial intelligence. His conclusion: this is not a dystopia, it is the start of a partnership. Unless you have been living under a rock, you have surely heard of ChatGPT. It is an artificial intelligence […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 31/01/23 | SDRY, NFC, SAA, BOTB, CWR | An indiscriminate rally

With equity markets and industrial metals like copper rallying at the start of this year, Bruce looks at some companies geared into the recovery. SDRY, NFC, SAA, BOTB and CWR. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,774 in the last 5 trading days. In the US the S&P was up +2.5% and the Nasdaq 100 […]

Deep discount value fund worth putting on your radar – Chrysalis Investments

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If you are brave enough to be a growth investor – a tough vocation in the current climate – then I think at some stage you need to have some exposure to the world of private businesses, preferably fast-growing ones which might turn into tomorrow’s tech leviathans. The best way to get this exposure is […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 24/01/23 | ALPH, EQLS, CAPD | Currency markets and capital controls

Bruce looks at the government’s misguided attempt to defend the pound with capital controls in the 1970s. Companies covered are forex traders ALPH and EQLS, plus CAPD. The FTSE 100 was down 0.9% in the last 5 days to 7,791. The S&P500 was down -0.3% while Nasdaq100 was up +1.39% over the same time period. […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Quartix (LSE: QTX)

Quartix’s vehicle-tracking services have delivered consistently attractive financial ratios. Maynard Paton spotlights how new customers and a good-value workforce are counterbalancing pricing pressures and rising costs. Today I have revisited a SharePad screen that applies two ratios favoured by ‘quality’ investors — operating margin and return on equity (ROE). The exact criteria I re-used were: […]

Refining ROCE

Technically, Sharepad’s ROCE calculation is ROACE or Return on Average Capital Employed. It is a good refinement of perhaps the most revealing performance statistic for a business. Sometimes readers ask me why my figure for a certain financial statistic is different from SharePad’s, or the figure quoted by the company. Usually, it is because the […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 17/01/23 | GAW, TMG, FRAN, QTX | Terry Smith’s Triskaidekaphobia

Bruce looks at Terry Smith’s 13th annual shareholder letter and compares what he’s now saying about his META investment to his commentary a couple of years ago.  Companies covered GAW, TMG, FRAN, QTX The strong start to the year continues, with the FTSE 100 +1.64% to 7,851 in the last 5 days, approaching an all-time […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 10/01/23 | NXT, CNC, HEIQ, FDEV | Weathering the stormy markets

Bruce looks at how the warm weather in Europe has been affecting financial markets.  Companies covered NXT and CNC, plus profit warnings from HEIQ and FDEV. The FTSE 100 has enjoyed a strong early January, up +3.4% to 7,705. OCDO was up +20%, while IAG (the old British Airways) and BT were up +17% and […]

Monthly Funds focus: US MLPs, Invesco Morningstar US Energy Infrastructure MLP UCITS ETF Dist

This month we have three fund ideas based for readers. Our main focus is on how to pick the right global equities index tracking fund – ETFs that track FTSE vs MSCI! We also put US energy infrastructure on the radar, why the dollar might be weakening, and why a currency pair ETF might be […]

Poolbeg Pharma

Regular readers will be aware that I have areas of interest when it comes to research and investing. The past few years these areas have been in the human microbiome, greener energy, including more recently in the transition to electric vehicles and the manufacturers of powertrains, electric batteries inside these motor vehicles, and pharmaceuticals. Today’s […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 20/12/22 | FCAP, GAW, ZTF | Mortgages v equity investing

Bruce looks at the BoE Financial Stability Report and ponders whether the rising cost of mortgages will cause forced selling in equity markets.  Companies covered FCAP, GAW and ZTF The FTSE 100 was down -1% in the last 5 days to 7,373, with the Nasdaq100 -2.8% and S&P500 -2.1%. The FTSE 100 was also flat […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 13/12/22 | K3C,SOLI, MSI, SDI | Redemption Song

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Bruce thinks that net outflows from professional fund managers could eventually create an opportunity for amateur investors because we’re not forced to sell when markets fall.  Companies covered K3C, SOLI, MSI, and SDI. The FTSE 100 was down -1.6% in the last five days to 7,446. The S&P500 -3.4% and Nasdaq100 -3.6% were even weaker. […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Strix (LSE: KETL)

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Strix is the world’s leading developer of kettle safety controls, but a recent profit warning has sent the shares tumbling. Maynard Paton wonders whether the group’s competitive advantage can support an eventual recovery. A profit warning and 32% share-price crash brought Strix to my attention the other week: This small-cap dominates the market for kettle […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 6/12/22 | C4XD, CRL, PEEL, FCAP | Santa Rally arrives early

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Bruce looks at the bounce in markets over the last 2 months and suggests some ideas that could benefit from a recovery in risk appetite.  C4XD, CRL, PEEL, FCAP We’ve had a strong rally in markets since the lows at the beginning of October, the pound is up +15% against the dollar and AIM is […]

How has 2022 been for UK stocks and any reason to be optimistic in 2023?

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Let’s look at the data. Yes, I am data-obsessed. Too many people speak twaddle without looking at the facts or data. By the way, here’s a good trick on social media when you find annoying twaddle, just put this into the comments “Data?”. Out of the 350 largest quoted companies on the London Stock Exchange […]

Monthly Funds focus: Literacy Capital, Cordiant Digital Infrastructure Ltd

This month another gaggle of four ideas for fund-oriented investors. I have included a short guide to buying US equity ETFs – as you can imagine there’s lots of choice and I think some of the less widely used indices are quite compelling. I also introduce what I think is a much more viable alternative […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1 | 22/11/22 |HVO, BMS | The Emperor’s New Blockchain

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Bruce ponders if any large corporates are exposed as social proof in crypto disappear.  Companies covered HVO and BMS   The FTSE has been flat at just below 7,400 for the last 5 days. The S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 are both down around -1%. The China FTSE 50, has enjoyed a +22% bounce from its […]

UK Stock Market & UK India Free Trade Agreement

I write to you from India. In fact from Asia’s largest tech summit. I’ve seen companies in AI, quantum computing, cancer detection, and rocketry (India launches UK satellites btw), and today India had its first private rocket launch. Then there were companies in Advanced Manufacturing, advanced materials and of course cyber security (they do have […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 18/11/22 |CMC |Globalisation and index returns

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Bruce questions why globalisation has been so bad for the FTSE All Share index versus the S&P500.  Plus a look at CMC Markets H1 results. The FTSE 100 was down -0.9% in the last 5 days, at just above 7,300 with some of the selling coming as the new Chancellor announced his plans for tax […]

Electric-Vehicle Revolution Part IV

Lithium-ion Batteries, Recycling for Demand Between our obsession with mobile electronics and the growing popularity of electric vehicles, lithium-ion battery demand is growing at an astonishing rate. You may have noticed I have featured several articles these past months specifically on the evolution, of the ongoing transition from ICE vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs). Most […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Trustpilot (LSE:TRST)

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Many quoted companies trumpet their TrustPilot ratings. But is Trustpilot itself a 5-star investment? Maynard Paton evaluates the review website’s financial progress and business model. Read a set of company results, and chances are you will spot a reference to Trustpilot. Examples of quoted businesses mentioning the popular review website include: AJ Bell: “Our operational […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1| 15/11/22 |HLN, BGEO| Timing the cycle

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Bruce looks at a couple of stocks that have benefited from the US dollar strength / weak pound.  HLN and BGEO. The FTSE 100 was up +0.65% to 7343 in the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were much stronger, +7.7% and 4.9%. Nasdaq has been strong despite the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX […]

The Trader: US stocks had their second-best day in history this week.

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Michael looks at the price action of the indices over the last few weeks and includes two potential breakout trades. US stocks had their second-best day in history this week. The indices have continued to rally since I last wrote two weeks ago. Many UK stocks have seen uplifts in their valuations too. The market […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 11/11/22 |ABF, AGFX | Questions left unanswered

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Bruce suggests that company managements who are reluctant to physically meet investors could be facing a more uncertain outlook. Companies covered ABF and AGFX The FTSE 100 was up +1.4% in the last 5 days to 7296, while the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +0.8% and +1.0% respectively. The pound weakened slightly versus to 1.138 […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1 | 8/11/22 |ATOM,AFC | A look at hydrogen

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Bruce looks at the FT30 index, which Sharepad has going back to 1935. Plus a couple of hydrogen stocks, that are currently too speculative for him:  ATOM and AFC The FTSE 100 has recovered well in the last 5 days up +2.9%. By contrast, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -4.7% and 2.3% respectively in […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 4/11/22 |LSEG, TCAP| You can’t eat vindication

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Bruce looks at two financial businesses that recently reported Q3 results, both delivering around 7% RoCE. Yet one trades on 5x sales, and the other 0.7x.  LSEG and TCAP. The FTSE 100 is up +0.7% in the last 5 days. Nasdaq100 is down -3.4% and the S&P500 was down -2.2%. Much of that sell-off came […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1 | 1/11/22 |BGEO, CRPR| Costs for growth

Bruce looks at the history of Brompton’s growth, and the trade-offs required to fund expansion. Plus a look at UK banks margin trends and James Cropper CRPR profit warning. The FTSE 100 rose +0.65% in the last 5 days and managed to consolidate above 7,000. Despite US tech stocks reporting a difficult quarter last week, […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 28/10/22 |SDRY, BARC, HSBA, LLOY, NWG, STAN| Numbers reflect reality

Bruce comments on Superdry’s auditor resignation and summarises Q3 trends at UK banks. The FTSE 100 rose above 7000 to 7,057. Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were around +3.0% and +4.5% over the last 5 days. Brent crude remains at mid $94 per barrel. The UK 10Y bond yield fell to 3.62% and the US […]

Ploughing through an economic blizzard

Digging deep into stock market sensation Halma’s history, Richard gains clues about the kind of businesses long-term investors should think about owning in an economic blizzard. I have never owned shares in Halma, in fact, I have never considered owning them even though the business has performed extraordinarily well. Halma: Proof that roll-ups can grow […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1| 25/10/22 |AFX, WISE| Volatility subsides

Bruce looks at WISE and AFX, currency traders that are benefiting from the market volatility and rising interest rates.  He compares their investment case to the UK banks reporting this week. Despite all the volatility of the last week, the FTSE 100 was actually flat at 6,937 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and […]

What Do Experts Say About Portfolio Allocation During High Inflation

We’re not alone – if it makes you feel better. Look at the Americans. Of course, you could argue that the market will help when rates are rising according to history: It’s no secret that inflation can have a significant impact on your portfolio. During times of high inflation, it can be difficult to maintain […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Redrow (LSE: RDW)

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Difficult markets prompt Maynard Paton to search for asset-rich shares with depressed ratings. Screening for low price to books and net cash positions leads to house builder Redrow. Difficult market conditions have led to depressed ratings for many asset-flush shares. Hence a new screen to pinpoint companies offering cash-rich balance sheets and market caps below […]

Weekly Market Commentary 17/10/22 |AT., BDEV, DARK|Raising rates into a recession

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Two very different US financial personalities believe that US interest rates are rising too fast.  No doubt bankers and fund managers are talking their own book, but that doesn’t mean they’re wrong.  Stocks covered AT., BDEV, DARK  The FTSE 100 failed to consolidate above 7,000 and was down -3.8% last week. The Nasdaq100 was down […]

The Trader: Academic Findings in Retail Trading

Michael looks at several academic studies covering retail investors and what we can learn from them. We last looked at an academic article on trading in the summer of 2020. For a refresher, there were several findings. 1. “Retail investors tend to trade as contrarians after large earnings surprises, both positive and negative” Retail investors […]

New UK IPOs 12/10/22 |Fintech Asia Ltd, Ikigai Ventures Ltd, Sondrel (Holdings) Plc|

Welcome back to our monthly examination of listings on the London Stock Exchange. This time, we will be introducing three companies, namely: Fintech Asia Limited Ikigai Ventures Limited Sondrel (Holdings) plc Fintech Asia Limited Opening Date: 15th Sep 2022 Issue Price: 50p Market Cap: £10.37m Ticker: FINA At the helm: Oliver Fox CEO of Fintech […]

Weekly Market Commentary 10/10/22 |IPX, SDRY, TSCO, AGFX, GRG| Coping with drawdowns

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Bruce updates a chart Terry Smith first published in the FT in 2014, looking at Tesco EPS progress versus declining Return on Capital.  Other companies featured IPX, SDRY, GRG and AGFX.   The FTSE 100 recovered to just above 7000 last week and the pound recovered to 1.12 to the dollar. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 […]

Weekly Market Commentary 03/10/22 |NFC, ASY, SMV, BGO & BOKU| A look at large caps

Bruce looks at the performance of large cap sectors YTD, and suggests rules of thumb for trying to time the turn in different sectors. Companies covered NFC, ASY, SMV, BGO and BOKU. The FTSE 100 was down -3.3% last week, falling below the 7,000 level. The S&P and Nasdaq100 were both down -1.3%. The UK […]

Monthly funds focus: Biopharma Credit, The all-singing discount play, Thematic ETFs

Welcome to my quick monthly round-up of interesting, listed funds, be they investment trusts (or closed funds, as they are sometimes called) or index tracking exchange traded funds (ETFs). To repeat earlier articles for SharePad, I’m still fairly bearish about prospects for global equity markets but I am starting to see some opportunities start to […]

Weekly Market Commentary 26/09/22 |MOON, FDEV, KWS| Gambling for Resurrection

Bruce suggests that political leaders need a risk manager, to prevent them from increasing risk as a position moves against them.  Companies covered MOON, and computer games companies FDEV and KWS. The FTSE 100 was down -3.1% last week to 7,012. US markets were also weak, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 both down -3.0%. […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Shoe Zone (LSE: SHOE)

Top of the shops this year is Shoe Zone with a 46% share-price gain. Maynard Paton explores the discount retailer’s post-Covid progress and wonders whether the 10x P/E offers re-rating potential. Top of the shops among this year’s market carnage has been Shoe Zone. The discount shoe retailer has enjoyed an amazing 46% share-price gain […]

Weekly Market Commentary 20/09/22 |SRC, FEVER, ITM| The second derivative of expectations

Bruce suggests that the rate of change of investors’ expectations is more important than expectations themselves.  Companies covered SRC, and expensive but becoming more reasonably priced FEVR and ITM. The FTSE 100 was down -1% to 7280 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 sold off more steeply down -5.25% and -4.1% respectively. The UK 10Y Govt […]

New UK IPOs 14/09/22 |Aurrigo Group plc, First Class Metals plc, Haleon plc|

In this article, Bernice will once again examine recent and upcoming listings on the London Stock Exchange. The three investment opportunities reviewed are: Aurrigo Group plc First Class Metals plc Haleon plc Aurrigo Group plc Opening Date: Mid-September 2022 Issue Price: 0.2p Market Cap: TBC Ticker: AURR At the helm: David Martin Keene Aurrigo’s CEO […]

Weekly Market Commentary 12/09/22 |AFX, EQLS, PCIP|Interest by the pound

With the pound falling by -14% so far this year against the dollar, Bruce looks at two companies that help SME businesses manage currency risk: AFX and EQLS. Plus payments company PCIP. The FTSE was up +1.3% at 7373 last week, with power and commodity companies leading the way Centrica, Glencore, Antofagasta and Anglo American […]

Weekly Market Commentary 05/09/22 |BMS, CBOX, BGO| Winter is coming

Looking at the sectors that have been worst hit by the cost of living crisis, Bruce suggests a sector filter could be used to ‘read across’ where problems are yet to emerge. Companies covered BMS, CBOX and BGO.  The FTSE 100 was down -3.5% last week to 7,210. The S&P500 was down -2.2% and the Nasdaq 100 […]

Risky business

Richard writes an obituary for RM, his investment, rather than RM the business. It surprised him when it updated its risk report mid-term last week, despite what he had already learned. Perhaps it is because I do not scrutinise interim (half-year) results very often, or perhaps it is because I generally avoid heavily indebted companies, […]

Weekly Market Commentary 30/08/22 |SMV, KBT, SPE| Interest rates: the first 5,000 years

Central Bankers are having their annual shindig in Jackson Hole, so Bruce looks at the long-term history of interest rates and questions how much policy rates control activity and inflation. Companies covered SMV, KBT and SPE. The FTSE 100 was down -0.7% last week. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 were also down less than -1% over […]

Small Company Champion: The Human Biome, a developing health frontier (Part 2)

Our second feature in this mini-series on the human microbiome explores skin health, which is far more complex as well as exciting in terms of addressing important skin health opportunities. In this feature Elric Langton looks at two very different British Companies, both leading the world in skin care products, and science. You can read […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Cerillion (LSE: CER)

Cerillion’s shares have five-bagged since their pandemic low and remain near their all-time high. Maynard Paton studies the software group’s revenue profile, cash conversion and current valuation. Another month and another round of ‘back to basics’ filtering. Introduced earlier this year to identify James Halstead, this screen shortlists companies that offer cash-flush balance sheets, robust […]

Weekly Market Commentary 22/08/22 | MANU, DARK, TET, GHH | Just a bus stop in Hounslow

Looking at the returns from investing in football clubs, Bruce suggests the key is to identify well managed teams that have developed an effective way of operating. Stocks covered DARK, and profit warnings from TET and GHH. The FTSE 100 was up +0.9% last week to 7,571. The S&P500 was down -0.5%, and the Nasdaq100 […]

Monthly funds focus: Hipgnosis Song Fund, Georgia Capital, Yellow Cake plus ETFs – VILX & ARKS

This month I have four new fund ideas for Sharepad susbcribers. As always, you can find out a lot more about these ideas via my regular newsletter at davidstevenson.substack.com. But for now, lets focus on some alternative investment ideas including both investment trusts and exchange traded funds (ETFs) – notably music royalty funds, investing in […]

New UK IPOs 19/08/22 |Alteration Earth plc, Ming Yang Smart Energy Ltd, Tertre Rouge Assets plc|

Bernice is back with her monthly  introduction to the investment opportunities recently admitted to the London Stock Exchange. This months companies are: Alteration Earth plc Ming Yang Smart Energy ltd Tertre Rouge Assets plc Alteration Earth plc Opening Date 1 Jul 2022 Issue Price £0.003 Market Cap £2.7m Ticker ALTE At the helm Martin Samworth […]

Weekly Market Commentary 15/08/22 | HAT, TCAP, OCM | Trust in long time horizons

Bruce discusses how long term compounders capitalise on trust. When applied shrewdly, this can be very rewarding. Companies covered HAT, TCAP and OCN The FTSE 100 was up less than 1% last week to 7,492. The Nasdaq 100 was up +0.7%, while the S&P500 was stronger up +1.5%. The US 10Y government bond yield continued […]

Weekly Market Commentary 08/08/22|BGO, KWS, DUKE|The orthodoxy of St James’s

Bruce suggests that if you’re looking for uncorrelated investment returns, you are better to invest your own money, rather than give it to a poker-playing long-short hedge fund manager. Stocks covered BGO, KWS and DUKE.    The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 7,438. The Nasdaq100 continued to show good momentum +2.9%, but the […]

Weekly Market Commentary 01/08/22| JDG, GAW, BOKU| Whatever it takes…

Bruce suggests that government debt to GDP ratios should include unfunded pension liabilities, and some of the issues from the Eurozone crisis a decade ago remain unresolved.  Companies covered JDG, GAW and BOKU. The FTSE 100 finished the week at 7,423 up +2.0%. The Nasdaq 100 was up +4.5% and the S&P500 +4.3% with July […]

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