Last week the FTSE recovered to just over 6000. The (perhaps inappropriately named) Bond film No Time to Die, was postponed until next year by its Hollywood studio, MGM, which has left cinemas in trouble. Cineworld is on the brink, a victim of an overly leveraged balance sheet but no product to distribute. Up until […]
The Trader: A look at the hospitality sector
The hospitality sector has been smashed in recent months. This is for several reasons. Lower footfall in high streets, offices closed and the work from home trend, and finally because many were already being hit in the casual dining crisis that is far from over. In the aftermaths of the Great Financial Crisis restaurants boomed. […]
Weekly Commentary: 05/10/20 – On uncertainty and confidence
Last week Andy Haldane at the Bank of England gave an interesting speech on “Economic Anxiety” noting that pessimism can be as contagious as the disease. Haldane is most famous for his “Dog and the Frisbee” speech, which he co-wrote with the famous psychologist Gerd Gigarenzer in 2012. Catching a frisbee is difficult; theoretically it […]
What does not kill a business can make it stronger
This article was not supposed to be about paper maker James Cropper. I set out to write about Animalcare, a veterinary pharmaceutical company, but I quickly became disillusioned, wretched even. You probably will hear about Animalcare one day, because it is an interesting business, but it is also complicated and its complicatedness was epitomised by […]
Dynamic 35: RTW Venture
I have a new addition to my Dynamic 35 list of investment trusts and closed end funds. It is called RTW Venture and it is a venture capital fund which invests in life sciences businesses – mainly in the biotech and MedTech space. Its key differentiator is that it invests in later stage private businesses […]
Weekly Commentary: 28/09/20 – Beginner’s mind and Buy and Build
Markets sold off last week as virus case rises rose (FTSE 100 fell to below 5800 before recovering slightly later in the week, Nasdaq down 4% to 10,800). The virus itself seems reasonably predictable, everyone has been expecting cases to rise as summer turns to autumn. What hasn’t been predictable is Government responses around the […]
The Trader: The Impact of Coronavirus on Trading
One of the effects on Coronavirus has been to crash the entire stock market only to see it recover strongly. However, the impact of Coronavirus for the private investor and retail trader has been huge. Social media has contributed to market inefficiency It is a widely held view that the internet has created a more […]
Weekly Commentary: 21/09/20 – The long journey to exoneration
The FTSE 100 just about held its level above 6000 last week. Last week was Chilean Independence Day. It is a little known footnote in history that Lord Cochrane, who was involved in the great Stock Exchange scam of 1814 (accused of starting rumours of Napoleon’s death via the Admiralty’s semaphore telegraph) helped not one, […]
This time is different for Design Group
If you watch Design Group’s annual results presentation, you may detect a bashful smile on chief executive Paul Fineman’s face. Paul Fineman, chief executive of Design Group. Source: Design Group Full Year Results 2020 (video). Despite unexpected tariffs on products imported into the USA from China and the onset of the pandemic, Design Group was […]
Weekly Commentary: 14/09/20 – Americans on AIM
The oil price fell to a 3 month low in the middle of last week to below $40 a barrel. Oil is in contango (futures price higher than spot price) which suggests that despite production cuts, traders are still worried about demand over the next few months. Ironically Tesla shares were off even more sharply […]
The Trader: Spread Betting
Spread betting is another way of buying and selling shares. Instead of buying the actual stock when we purchase through our broker, in spread betting we are literally placing a bet on the stock that it will either rise or fall as defined by the spread. The spread is the price to buy and the […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Fuller, Smith & Turner
First, a wealth warning. The last price-to-book ‘bargain’ I looked at for SharePad was Hammerson. Back then the property group’s £5 billion asset base could be acquired for a £1.6 billion market cap. Investors were in theory able to purchase £1 of assets for just 30p. Twelve months on, and the share price below tells […]
Weekly Commentary: 07/09/20 – Come back on St Leger Day
St Leger Day, as in ““Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger Day”, is approaching. I’ve always wondered who St Leger was, and why a saint might have had a horse race named in his honour. Was Saint Leger the patron saint of book making? Well no, it turns out […]
A company that is already successful
It would be convenient to report that I diligently pick every share I investigate from a Sharepad filter of exquisite construction, but it would be untrue. Sometimes I click around randomly until I find an interesting stock. I had heard Bunzl had had a “good pandemic”, and when I saw that its PE ratio and […]
Weekly Commentary: 31/08/20 – Let the future ≠ the past
Nasdaq continued to hit new highs, at 11,666 up +30% from the start of the year and up 2.5x in the last 5 years. I can’t think of anyone suggesting in January that all three of I) Gold, II) Govt bonds and III) Nasdaq would be up strongly from the start of the year. Such […]
My two ETF Growth Portfolios
This week I am focusing not on my usual subject of investment trusts but switching attention to exchange traded funds or ETFs. These are a useful vehicle for investors, and I think they can easily sit alongside investment trusts. What do I mean by that? Let’s say for instance that you want to have exposure […]
The Trader: Working Through Rough Periods
Unless you’re an Instagram trader, set with a laptop by the pool and a Lamborghini in the background, everybody goes through rough patches in trading. It is a fact. So much of this business is uncertain, and ironically people want to get into trading for the ‘freedom’ it provides. But free we are not, and […]
Weekly Commentary: 24/08/20 – Searching for uncorrelated returns
Rightmove released a survey showing that the UK housing agreed sales picked up strongly to a record £37bn. A day later Persimmon reported half year results to end of June, adding that reported sales since the start of July were up 49% vs the same period last year. This would not have come as a […]
The Trader: A Day In The Life of a Stock Trader
One of the questions I’m frequently asked is how I structure my day. Time is a trader’s most important currency because sometimes it can be the first person eats, the second person goes hungry. Being alert and organised is the key to performing well. My day starts early compared to most at 04:45. Before I […]
A safety first stock
I found James Latham a couple of months ago when I was trawling for cheap shares with strong balance sheets. The shares are still cheap, James Latham’s Price Earnings (PE) ratio is 13, and the balance sheet should remain strong… Centuries trading timber James Latham has a long and storied history. It manufactured plywood for […]
UK banks – in the eye of the storm?
Every crisis presents opportunities. A contrarian strategy of buying bank shares during the point of maximum gloom during a recession has often, but not always, been a good idea. It most definitely failed in 2008 when banks needed to raise capital and had to rely on Government bail outs. But it has worked in previous […]
Weekly Commentary: 10/08/20 – The last “forever” stock
The last “forever” stock For Jeremy’s last weekly note he reviews his value investing mistakes and aims to find the stock that in 10 years’ time will ensure he is remembered fondly. Read more
Preparing for the worst, capitalising on the best
Listening to Porvair’s long-standing chief executive Ben Stocks talk about the challenges ahead, it is clear the company is bracing itself. Phrases like “preparing for the worst, hoping for the best”, and “the overall balance is negative”, come readily to him. This is a company I have long admired, but I have never had the […]
The Trader: Knowing Your Market
We have covered many aspects of trading in previous articles, such as Why You Should Be Using R, Exit Strategies, and How To Avoid Blowing Your Account, and having had conversations with recent traders it is clear that knowing your market in what you trade is a necessary criterion. This article will introduce new traders […]
Weekly Commentary: 03/08/20 – Lessons
Lessons In the spirit of reflection in a year of uncertainty and extremes, Jeremy analyses some past weekly notes and takes another look at one he wants to dig his heels in on and say “I am sure I am right”. Read more
Prudent 15: Ecofin Global Utilities and Infrastructure Trust (EGL)
I do not think it is unfair to say that over the last decade we have seen a powerful shift in sentiment towards utility stocks, arguably in a very negative direction. For much of the last few decades, private investors could not get enough of these boring stocks. They paid out a generous dividend, seem […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Fever-Tree Drinks
They say mums always know best. Mine has bought Fever-Tree tonic waters for some years now and I recently asked whether she remained a customer. This was her response. “While we don’t buy many commercial drinks for home consumption these days I would still definitely buy Fever-Tree, generally the original tonic water. I went into […]
Weekly Commentary: 27/07/20 – The Relative Value Trade
The Relative Value Trade With a huge injection of liquidity last week the valuation differential between large US tech stocks and UK small companies is becoming extreme. Jeremy takes a look at the relative merits of LoopUp vs Zoom and Beeks Financial Cloud vs RobinHood. Read more
Making a new discoverIE
I discovered discoverIE using a simple and fruitful method of finding new investment ideas: a list of shares sorted in SharePad by previous annual report date. Having squinted for a few minutes at financial charts showing profitability, cashflow and debt (more on that later), I thought the company looked promising: Sorting a list in SharePad […]
Weekly Commentary: 20/07/20 – Clearing up the debris
Clearing up the debris The pace of structural change is faster, perhaps, than ever before and there are an increasing number of quoted companies dedicated to managing this change. A new entrant into the insolvency funding market, RBG Holdings, could well be set to benefit despite a number of red flags. Read more
Prudent 15: International Public Partnerships
The safe bet on infrastructure: INPP (International Public Partnerships) Over the next couple of articles, we’ll be adding two new funds to our Prudent 15 list, both in the broad infrastructure and utilities space. My next article will be on a fund that invests very broadly in the shares of other infrastructure and utility companies […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Headlam
Let me start by thanking you for clicking on an article with Headlam in the title. Rest assured, not everyone will want to read about this rather dull business that has suffered badly during the pandemic. But for us contrarians, now may be the time to consider such stocks — unloved names that the market […]
Weekly Commentary: 13/07/20 – Flight to Quality
Flight to Quality As the bubble spreads from large tech to healthcare and motor companies in anticipation of a flight to quality Jeremy takes a look at Judges Scientific and SDI Group. Read more
Volex: Reassuringly above average
If you’ve read my recent articles you will know I have been ranking shares using basic financial statistics. I found Bioventix by ranking five criteria. The objective was to find profitable companies mostly financed by equity rather than debt, with high quality assets and low valuations. The more profitable, the more conservatively financed, and the […]
Weekly Commentary: 06/07/20 – Inflation
Inflation The growth bubble continues, but eyeing inflationary storm clouds gathering over the horizon Jeremy takes a look at Melrose Industries as a potential hedge against inflationary threats. Read more
Dynamic 35: Witan Investment Trust
Witan – a long term buy and hold globalist fund with a value bias Investing should really be about simplicity. Take global investing. Nearly every investor should have some exposure to a globally diversified mix of developed world stock markets. How big that exposure depends on your risk tolerance and your own appetite for global […]
Weekly Commentary: 29/06/20 – Director Dealing
Director Dealing As markets tread water after extreme volatility Jeremy finds that directors have a 77% win rate on their purchasing during the volatility. A trawl of those still underwater may indicate some treasures that are overlooked. Read more
The Trader: Examining Retail Trading Behaviour
One of the many oft-repeated quotes around traders is that 90% of traders lose money. However, this depends on how one classifies a ‘trader’. Many people – and I can believe that it is 90%+ of people – lose money when they enter trading. But often newcomers aren’t coming into the market prepared. There’s a […]
A cheap profitable share with a strong balance sheet
Today I have added two more criteria to turn the list of cheap shares with strong balance sheets I made in my last article into a list of cheap profitable shares with strong balance sheets! The profitability criteria are free cash conversion and return on capital employed. This table shows the individual and aggregated rankings […]
Weekly Commentary: 22/06/20 – High Conviction from here on
High Conviction from here on With the seamless transition from bear market to bubble Jeremy suspects that now is a time to make sure we have conviction in our holdings. Tatton Asset management is his highest conviction holding. Read more
Ranking potential bargains
A SharePad customer, Chris, reminded me of the power of ranking recently, when he emailed to say (among other things): “I find that I am playing with spreadsheets to get the data in place rather than actually making decisions. I guess sometimes too much data can be detrimental…” Decisions are hard, and messing around with […]
Weekly Commentary: 15/06/20 – On-line valuations
On-line valuations The silly valuation of the latest US IPO causes Jeremy to ponder some of the UK online valuations and finds the spreadbetters to be under appreciated by UK markets Read more
Prudent 15: The SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust
The SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust The idea of investing in a fund which will help facilitate the transition towards a more sustainable energy mix has spawned a small army of London listed closed end funds and investment trusts. At last count there are over a dozen such funds listed and with all of them […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Frontier Developments
Has the market become too obsessed with ‘pandemic-proof’ shares? I ask because my SharePad screening has brought Frontier Developments to my attention. The shares of this computer-game developer have leapt 66% so far this year as industry sales rally during the lockdown. However, Frontier’s accounting looks rather questionable and the near-£800 million market cap seems […]
Weekly Commentary: 08/06/20 – The Recovery Trade
The Recovery Trade In this strong market the pain trade is to buy. There are reasons this could be right and Jeremy suggests the carpet retailers recovery potential hasn’t yet been reflected. Read more
The Trader: Taking advantage of ShareScope News
In this article, I’ll show how you to set up your news feed in order to get the best out of your subscription. First of all, we need to click “News” at the top of our ShareScope across the main toolbar. This brings up the raw RNS feed that we need to filter and make […]
Weekly Commentary: 01/06/20 – Dash to Trash
Dash to Trash After 14 years of growth out-performance, value is now set to perform in a recovery. Jeremy takes a look at the value available in the high street banks and wonders if the value will out. Read more
Getting to grips with software companies
First, an admission. The software biz is a bit of a mystery to me. There’s a vast ecosystem of enterprise solutions, software that businesses increasingly need to operate, but how do those of us whose technical skills extend little further than Word and Excel decide whether these solutions and the companies that code them are […]
Dynamic 35: Hg Capital
A smarter way of buying into the right kind of private growth businesses It is an unfortunate truth that more and more high growth businesses are choosing to stay private and ignore the public markets. Collectively we investors, institutional and private have done our best to make life difficult for highly rated , fast growing […]
Weekly Commentary: 25/05/20 – Investing in Intangibles
Investing in Intangibles Intangibles take greater precedence today. Both accountants and governments struggle with this while markets are quick to find answers through royalty companies. Trident looks potentially interesting while Duke Royalty may have a good concept but may have strayed into private equity land. Read more
The Trader: Five rules for traders
A combination of market volatility and being locked in during lockdown has led to many turning their eye to getting involved in the stock market. The failure rate for traders is estimated to be around 90%, and many of the spread bet firms report that 70%+ of clients lose (the real figure I believe is […]
Weekly Commentary: 18/05/20 – Investing in Acquirors
Investing in Acquirors Jeremy worries about software valuations and is concerned that returns at Ideagen and Tracsis could turn out to be far less than markets appraise them to be. Read more
The changing shape of QinetiQ
I have picked QinetiQ from my “Cash King” filter because it was one of the more reasonably priced companies that passed all the criteria. It’s debt-adjusted PE ratio is 14. QinetiQ makes Rattler, a supersonic target that simulates air-launched anti-radiation missiles. Source: QinetiQ annual report 2019 The company is a defence technology business, once part […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Hikma Pharmaceuticals
One way to invest during the pandemic is to consider shares that have climbed higher as the market has dropped. Such companies may well be ‘safe havens’ — businesses that are coping well with the lockdown, or perhaps even benefitting from the crisis. I applied the following simple criteria within SharePad to identify potential ‘pandemic-proof’ […]
Dynamic 35: Edinburgh Worldwide
Edinburgh Worldwide – a great long-term home for growth investors Investors in funds such as Scottish Mortgage will have noticed a very peculiar phenomenon over the last few turbulent weeks. On paper many of the growth-oriented businesses sitting in its portfolio stand on huge valuations (very high price to earnings ratios) which means that they […]
Weekly Commentary: 11/05/20 – The 50-year view
The 50-year view As equity markets squeeze up Jeremy suggests equities may have further to go on the back of credit markets. A screen of resilient dividend payers finds 3 strong fund managers to be some of the best performers in the current money printing environment. City of London Investment Group is the recovery situation […]
The Trader: How to Avoid Blowing Your Account
The market is moving with extreme volatility in recent weeks. This offers traders many opportunities to prosper and profit, but volatility is a double-edged sword. It can be your best friend one day and your worst enemy the next. Many traders love volatility when the trade is going in their favour, but struggle to deal […]
Weekly Commentary: 04/05/20 – The Small Cap Opportunity
The Small Cap Opportunity With markets squeezing up, pushed by central banks money printing we are at a moment of opportunity for overlooked small cap stocks. Jeremy takes a look at Eddie Stobart Logistics and FBD Holding as two complex and therefore potentially overlooked situations. Read more
In search of the cash kings
While the stock market and the pandemic may have stabilised, I’m still thinking about financially strong firms. We never know when the next shock will happen, and a cash cushion gives us confidence a company will make it through when revenue melts away. I spent the last two articles experimenting with filters to find financially […]
Weekly Commentary: 27/04/20 – To the Future
To the Future With markets trending sideways Jeremy sees inflation ahead and takes at look at the food manufacturers which could be beneficiaries. Devro’s sausage casings could benefit in due course while Greencore could be a recovery stock. Read more
The Trader: Why You Should Be Using R
R is a component in trading that we use to define risk. It is a crucial aspect of trading systems and by thinking in terms of R we can improve our results. In this article I will introduce to you the concept of R and how to use it for your own trading. It is […]
Prudent 15: Ruffer Investment Company
The Ruffer Investment Company – big bets on a global new normal “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” Lenin Generally, I have a very dismissive attitude towards the idea of absolute returns funds. The concept sounds alluring, whereas the delivery tends to be fairly dismal. The key idea […]
Weekly Commentary: 20/04/20 – Depression in a Wall of Money
Depression in a Wall of Money The market is caught between an oncoming depression and a wall of money inflating valuations. In this environment the bar bell approach is more appropriate than ever. Jeremy looks at Genus, Aquis Exchange and Urban Exposure as companies at differing ends of the bar bell. Read more
Filtering for financial fortresses
The conclusion of my last article on finding companies with strong finances contained two caveats. Companies with seasonal cash flows can look like they have strong finances at the end of the financial year, when they report, but be weaker at other times during the financial year. Also, strong finances are not necessarily the result […]
Weekly Commentary: 13/04/20 – With Recovery comes Refinance
With Recovery comes Refinance It is easy to stress over whether we are in a bear rally or the start of a bull market. But we know that companies have stressed balance sheets from disruption. Rather than chase individual opportunities it may be simpler to own the quoted brokers. This could be their time. Read more
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: A Covid-19 Special
Let me start with a confession.This Covid-19 ‘Special’ may not be all that special. I have just applied a new SharePad screen to seek ‘quality bargains’ amid the market chaos — and sadly the results were not that inspiring. The problem is nothing to do with me or my filters or SharePad. Instead, the Covid-19 […]
Weekly Commentary: 06/04/20 – After Value comes Recovery
After Value comes Recovery In a world full of value Jeremy takes a look at what a recovery may look like and picks a couple of cyclical recovery stocks with strong balance sheets that should benefit strongly in recovery. Mission Group and Zotefoams. Read more
Dynamic 35: Augmentum
A big bet on Fintech worth taking at this price – Augmentum OK, I’m not going to beat around the bush. l readily concede that now is not a great time, all things considered, to be talking about investing in a high-risk venture capital fund that invests in equally high risk private European fintech firms, […]
Putting safety first
Funny thing (peculiar, not ha! ha!). Search SharePad news for the phrase “strong balance sheet” and there are dozens of companies every day confirming their finances are strong as they reflect on the prospect of reduced, or in some cases, no revenue for a while. Search SharePad news for the phrase “weak balance sheet” though […]
The Trader: Why the trend is your friend
“It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single man in possession of a good fortune, must be in want of a wife.” Whether or not you agree with Jane Austen’s opening line in Pride and Prejudice, by the end of this article I hope you will agree with my version. “It is a truth […]
Weekly Commentary: 30/03/20 – Value time
Value time With no earnings visibility it is easy to forget there are green shoots over the horizon. This is a time to seek value. A SharePad screen reveals 11 situations, of which 6 look worthy of further research. Read more
Weekly Commentary: 23/03/20 – Irrational or True?
Irrational or True? We are now in a market of fear and there are signs of inefficiency and irrational behaviour, which is a time of opportunity. Jeremy highlights Plus 500 with conviction. Read more
Prudent 15: BH Global
Kicking off with BH Global (BHGG) You can always read more about my views on funds at my blog www.adventurousinvestor.com. I update this most days, especially useful during these volatile times when new investment opportunities emerge very quickly. I’m not going to bore readers with speculation about viruses and volatility but simply ask them to […]
Getting more out of return on capital
How we measure return on capital depends on what we want to know: whether a company is good at making profit from its operations, or whether it is good at buying other businesses. As I write, the stockmarket is crashing. I have invested in strong businesses that should prosper through thick and thin, but that […]
Weekly Commentary: 16/03/20 – Timing is everything
Timing is everything With the current crisis Jeremy dusts off the recovery stocks folder. Airlines that survive will have huge upside on the back of a lower oil price. The opportunity may be in the likely refinancing issues, and Primary bid is a useful tool to enables retail investors to participate. Jeremy registers his interest […]
The Trader: Exit Strategies
In April 2017, I had a real nightmare. I had been trading full time on the market for four months and had had enormous success buying bubbley story stocks and riding them upwards. I was convinced that I knew what I was doing. I made all the classic mistakes of complacency, which turned into denial […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: AB Dynamics
Recent market ructions have sent many shares tumbling — and perhaps created some buying opportunities. Amid the mayhem, I devised a straightforward screen. I simply looked for decent-sized businesses that were still expected to grow, paid a dividend and were conservatively financed, too I applied the following criteria within SharePad to identify some respectable candidates: […]
Weekly Commentary: 09/03/20 – Purging Excess
Purging Excess Bear markets cleanse excess. Jeremy takes a look at the growth narratives and accounting adjustments that have been adopted and suspects the bear market may continue until these are cleansed. Read more
Going for repeat business
Fundsmith Equity probably needs no introduction. Since its launch in November 2010 the fund has racked up class-leading annualised returns of more than 18%, compared to less than 12% for an index of global equities, by investing in high quality businesses at attractive valuations. You can, of course, make further comparisons, and explore the makeup […]
Dynamic 35: Syncona
The genomics revolution and the appeal of Syncona It’s easy to get carried away with the short to medium term noise coming out of stock markets. The corona virus has sent investors in the developed world heading for the exit. But in truth some sectors of the giant ‘technology’ sector were already beginning to suffer […]
Weekly Commentary: 02/03/20 – Correction or Bear Market?
Correction or Bear Market? The question of whether the sudden market correction is a temporary contagion of fear, or the beginning of a bear market is key now. Fearing the bear, Jeremy finds a lot of attractions in Andrew Sykes. Read more
The Trader: Optimising Your RNS Feed
In this article, I’ll show you how to clean up and manage your RNS feed by adding a filter and removing noise, colour coding your RNSs, and highlighting words and phrases within the stories itself. We’ll also get rid of all stocks without EPIC codes. The RNS feed is an important part of the screen […]
Weekly Commentary: 24/02/20 – Barbell Portfolio
Barbell Portfolio The tax advantages of technology companies and private equity combined with quantitative easing are shrinking stock markets. Until this changes the shrinkage will continue. In this environment a Barbell portfolio is likely to outperform. Jeremy suggests Alpha FX and Non Standard Finance as two companies at polar opposites of the valuation spectrum. Read […]
Taking back control
Richard investigates Dialight, a supplier of industrial LED lighting that flared up ten years ago briefly setting the stock market alight, and subsequently dimmed alarmingly. What are its prospects now it is taking back control of manufacturing? Ten years ago Dialight was a feted, fast growing business in a booming industry, LED lighting, but it […]
Dynamic 35: Scottish Mortgage
I must say I’m very excited to be writing for SharePad and ShareScope. I’ve been an avid user of both for more than 10 years and I know that both products are widely used by smart investors who want to a more in-depth analysis of stocks and funds. Many of you will know me from […]
Weekly Commentary: 17/02/20 – Dinosaurs don’t gallop
Dinosaurs don’t gallop Jim Slater coined the term “elephants don’t gallop” and in this technology enabled era it may be better termed “dinosaurs don’t gallop”. In a hunt for tech enabled small companies Jeremy finds himself enamoured with Plus 500. Read more
XP POWER
Older readers may recall a distant era when electrical devices used to plug straight into the wall. Nowadays, everything electrical seems to need an annoying little box between it and the wall. That box is called a power supply and these are the business of XP Power. But not the annoying ones. XP doesn’t do […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Boohoo
Cash flow movements can often indicate whether or not a business enjoys a powerful operational advantage. A strong business might: Receive customer payments upfront for goods/services it has yet to deliver, and/or; Pay suppliers months after goods/services have been received. However, a weak business might: Receive customer payments months after its goods/services have been delivered, […]
Weekly Commentary: 10/02/20 – Employee Culture
Employee Culture With quality as the watchword a review of staff feedback can tell us much about the culture of a company. A review of all companies on AIM underlines conviction in some highly rated companies while underlining that Applegreen, the petrol forecourt operator is more about financial leverage than staff welfare. Read more
A market of stocks or a stock market?
January was a good month, despite the FTSE 100 closing down nearly 3.5% and the outbreak on coronavirus soon to kill us all. Or is it? Well, it’s been declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organisation. But what seems likely is that the media has whipped up the story in order to […]
When bad news is good news
Richard investigates Vitec, which has reported some bad news in 2019. It could be an opportunity to buy shares in a high quality business at a low valuation. I don’t always follow up on reader suggestions, sometimes people recommend companies so repugnant it’s difficult to believe they have ever read a line of mine. But […]
Weekly Commentary: 03/02/20 – Acquirers in a low interest world
Acquirers in a low interest world In the continuing world of cheap money the buy and build companies have generally performed well. But its important to be wary of company adjusted numbers. Jeremy finds all may not be what it seems at Ideagen. Read more
Taste the Feeling
Taste the Feeling is a Coca-Cola slogan from 2016. I think it’s a very good, because Coca-Cola isn’t just a product. It’s a religion. The fervour seen during the launch of New Coke, launched in 1985, as a response to Pepsi’s taste tests showing consumers preferred a sweeter alternative, showed that it wasn’t about the […]
Weekly Commentary: 27/01/20 – Mind the gap
Mind the Gap It’s been a good few months. The FTSE small cap is up 14% since October, while the FTSE 100 is up around 7%. Suddenly the buy ideas start to disappear with prices adjusting upwards as the arrival of dawn reminds us the party is nearing a close. Which is often a useful […]
Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Greggs
‘Run your winners’ is popular stock-market advice. Great companies often remain great investments for a lot longer than most people expect… … and can deliver life-changing rewards to anyone who refrains from selling out too soon. Where can we find potential winners to run? I thought the best performing shares of 2019 would provide a […]
Death in paradise
The demise of Thomas Cook impacted the whole package tour industry including London listed Online Travel Agent, On The Beach. Whether you trust the accounting regulations or On The Beach’s adjustments makes a big difference to the company’s profitability in 2019. Richard unravels the exceptional items. It’s January, The BBC is screening Death in Paradise, […]
Weekly Commentary: 20/01/20 – Culture in payments
Culture in Payments There were no spare seats when I arrived at Panmure Gordon’s offices last week for the Non-Standard Finance investor day titled “Culture driven Performance”. The presentation was riddled with keywords such as “Integrity”, “Clarity”, “Respect”, “Trust”, “Empathy” etc. I particularly liked John Van Kuffeler’s description of the loan correspondence he has from […]
Why mindset is the most important factor
“Nature versus nurture” has been a debate that has raged for hundreds of years. Sir Francis Galton (pictured above), who was a Victorian era statistician and psychologist (amongst investor, explorer, and other disciplines) coined the phrase in his book Hereditary Genius. He had been influenced by Charles Darwin’s Origin of the Species, and so in […]
Weekly Commentary: 13/01/20 – Culture
Culture Luck plays a part in investing but there is also a theory that you make your luck. Both K3Capital and Dart Group are cyclical businesses which performed strongly in the second half of last year. It could be that they got lucky with the cycle going in their favour or Thomas Cook going bust, […]
Out with the old, in with the new
Richard enters 2020 with a cleaned-up SharePad setup primed to help him find companies developing competitive advantages. He expects it to make him a better long-term investor too. Happy New Year! As a full time writer/investor the festive season is the only set time in the year when I fully shut down. Like an ancient […]
