Category: Weekly Commentary

With two more bids coming in for small-cap stocks, Bruce looks at the average premiums being offered by buyers. Companies covered: AML, ULTP and HEIQ.   The FTSE 100 was up +1.3% to 7,426 last week. Meanwhile, there was a very strong rally in the US markets with Nasdaq100 +6.4% and the S&P500 up +5.9%. […]

As two more bids come in for small-cap listed companies, and another Private Equity IPO disappoints, Bruce looks at the trends that are shrinking public stock markets. Companies covered: CABP, OMG, IPF.   The FTSE 100 was down -1.5% to 7,291 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -2.6% and the S&P500 was down -2.5%. US […]

Bruce looks at UK fund manager outflows, both at an industry level and manager-specific level. Companies covered: STJ, HL., BPM, LIO, TMG. The FTSE 100 was down -3.2% last week to 7,384. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were also both down -2.9% and -2.4% respectively, with the FTSE China 50 off even more steeply at -4.7% over […]

Bruce looks at what we can learn from Oscar Wilde and a half-bearded psychology professor on flawed narratives that capture people’s imagination. Companies covered: IPX, SDG, YOU, OXIG and MRK.    The FTSE 100 was up +1.35% to 7,596. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than +0.5% in the last five days. In Japan, […]

Attempts to widen direct equity ownership in the UK stock market are gathering pace, even as the high dividend yields on fund managers are signalling problems with that business model. Stocks covered BOO, PEEL, MTRO. The FTSE 100 was up +0.3% to 7,536 last week. The Nasdaq100 rose +1.8% and the S&P500 was up +0.5%. […]

Bruce uses Sharepad to look at recent movements in the US long bond yields USTSY10 and the bondholder total return TLT ETF. Companies covered, PZC, YU, SCE and GTC.   The FTSE 100 fell -1.8% in the last 5 trading days to 7613. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were flat and down -0.75% respectively. The FTSE […]

Bruce suggests that government bonds and mortgages have been beneficiaries of Basel banking regulations over the last few decades. The effects of rising interest rates won’t be limited to the UK housing market. Companies covered HL., CODE and 4BB. The FTSE 100 was down -0.3% to 7,630 over the last five trading days. The Nasdaq […]

Bruce suggests that rather than ARM’s successful IPO, the likely catalyst for more companies coming to market will be retail flows into funds. Companies covered ELIX, FEVR and FDEV. The FTSE 100 was up +2.6% last week to 7,688 helped by mining stocks and financials. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both down less than -0.5%. […]

Bruce reviews a recent book Chaos Kings, on investors who benefit from financial crises and volatility. Companies covered BUR, STVG, WINK and CVSG. The FTSE 100 was up 0.5% to 7,494 last week and was the best-performing major indices other than the Mumbai S&P BSE +2.1% over that time period. Nasdaq100 and S&P were down […]

If the price of trophy assets like football clubs are wildly above intrinsic value, perhaps there’s a way for less wealthy investors to benefit from the same theme? Companies covered SDRY, BNZL and PBEE. The FTSE 100 was up +2.4% at 7,511 last week. The index is exactly flat on 5 years, though what 5 […]

Bruce looks at UK retail equity fund flows, and their implications for future expected returns.  Companies covered CMCX, EYE, TRCS. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to close at 7,338 over the bank holiday weekend. The Nasdaq100 was up +1.7%, while the FTSE China 50 was up very strongly +5.1% as their Ministry of Finance cut […]

Bruce suggests that the nature of cross border capital flows might present an opportunity in front of our eyes, in FTSE and AIM stocks. Companies covered LGEN, JUST and TRMR. Last week I suggested that with the VIX below 16, some complacency might be creeping back into markets. Right on cue, the FTSE 100 fell […]

The VIX index is currently below 16, signalling some complacency may be creeping back into markets, so Bruce looks at the deterioration in near term liquidity measures.  Stocks covered: SDI, D4T4 and JIM.   The FTSE 100 was down -0.6% to 7,509, while the Nasdaq100 fell -1.6% and the S&P500 was down -0.3%. The price […]

Bruce uses Sharepad to look at H1 mortgage approvals data going back to the mid-1990s, and house prices back to the 1950s. Companies covered: GRG, TW. and DEVO. All three of the FTSE 100, S&P500 and FTSE China50 were down -2.2% in the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 was even worse down -3%. The US […]

Bruce makes some broad observations about how economists’ models drive Central Bank behaviour and interest rate expectations.  Companies covered: LLOY, TSTL, RBGP The FTSE 100 was flat in the last five days at 7,688. Nasdaq100 was up +2% and the S&P500 was +0.75%. The FTSE China 50 Index was up +3.9% as the renminbi rose […]

With inflation peaking in the UK (at least for now), Bruce looks at some larger cap stocks that have broken through their 200-day moving averages on the upside.  Companies covered: ONT, DARK, HL., AJB  The FTSE 100 enjoyed a strong week up 3.4% to 7,658 as last week the UK’s inflation data was better than […]

While the dividend yield on the FTSE and AIM indices is not high relative to history, it does seem remarkable that >8% yields are available on companies in so many different sectors.  Stocks covered KOO, SUP and SMV. The FTSE 100 fell -3.5% in the last 5 days, with the Nasdaq 100 up +0.7% and […]

Bruce looks at the idea of tail risk hedging but thinks that the strategy might be too difficult for private investors to implement. Instead, companies significant cash could be an interesting theme for H2. Companies covered WISE, TBLD and DPP. The FTSE 100 rose +1.4% last week to 7556, while the Nasdaq10 and S&P 500 […]

Bruce suggests that unemployment, rather than interest rates, will be the driver of banks’ bad debts. Companies covered MANO, and profit warnings from SOM and HOTC, plus Teddy Sagi’s bid for BOTB.  After an entertaining weekend in Russia, one observation from a military friend who was in the Donbass, now in Libya, is that a […]

Bruce looks at recent trends in the IPO market and questions whether attracting new listings at any price really is good news for investors in London’s equity capital markets.  Companies covered W7L, FDEV and VNET. The FTSE 100 was up +0.5% to 7,618 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +3.8% […]

Bruce looks at the divergent performance of the Nasdaq100 +22% since its October lows, versus AIM which is flat over the same time period. Companies covered OMG, GHH, OCN and ADB. The FTSE 100 fell -0.3% to 7,573 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both flat over the last 5 trading days. A week […]

Bruce looks at 3 companies on low teens PERs that reported last week: BOWL, BMY and DOCS.  But he wonders if copper is suggesting negative macroeconomic news that is not yet priced in. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7646 last week. In the last 5 days, the Nasdaq100 was very strong, up +4.4% and […]

Bruce looks at trends in core inflation, plus observes first-hand that the UK economy has been stronger than many predicted. Companies covered AJB, ETP and HEAD. The FTSE 100 was down -1.7% in the last 5 days to 7,627. The Nasdaq100 was up +2.5% and the S&P 500 was flat. The price of gold was […]

Bruce uses Sharepad to graph UK house prices and mortgage approvals data back to the 1980s. Companies covered BLV, SHOE and OTB. The FTSE 100 was flat in the last 5 days, at 7,774. The Nasdaq100 was up strongly +3.4%, as was the KBW US regional banks index (KRE) up +7.7% while the S&P500 was […]

Bruce uses Sharepad to analyse the performance of MANU shares, listed on the NYSE. The football team presents some interesting challenges for valuing debt-funded intangible assets. Plus SDI’s profit warning, and CGEO’s Q1 results. The Bank of England raised interest rates to 4.5% last week, as the FTSE 100 rose +0.7% to 7,754. Since last […]

Bruce looks at Prof Altman’s credit analysis, going back 4 decades, suggesting US corporate default rates might rise above average, so understanding Sharepad’s Altman Z score could prove valuable. Stocks covered HEIQ, SDRY, LLOY, HL. and KITW. The FTSE 100 fell -1.2% to 7,737 in the last 5 days. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 were […]

UK banks BARC and NWG reported Q1 results, with contrasting trends in customer deposits. Also covered: bid approaches for MGP, NUM and SMV, plus a look at AOM. Last week the FTSE 100 was down -1.3% to 7,812. The Nasdaq100 was up +1.3% while the S&P 500 was broadly flat in the last 5 days. […]

Bruce looks at the influence double-digit inflation is having on bank deposits. Companies covered MONY, KMK and THRU. The FTSE 100 was up +0.4% to 7,907 over the last 5 days, while the Nasdaq 100 fell -0.6% and the S&P500 was flat. The Natural Gas contract (NG-MT) was up +31% in the last 5 days […]

Bruce shares some thoughts on averaging down when a share price falls versus supporting a company that needs to raise capital. Companies covered AGFX, JTC, SIS, and SDRY. The FTSE 100 was up +2.0% in the last five days to 7,902. The Nasdaq100 was up +0.1% and S&P500 +0.8% over the same time period. The […]

We have seen a disconnect between the performance of Nasdaq 100 (+19% YTD) versus US regional banks (-28% YTD). Companies covered: two large acquisitions by RAT, FRAN plus G4M’s profit warning. The FTSE 100 was up +2% over the last 5 trading days to 7,788. The S&P500 was flat, while the Nasdaq100 was down -1% […]

Platforms have made it easier for retail shareholders to vote at company AGMs, remuneration committees should take note. Plus a look at the computer games sector: TM17, TBLD, KWS and a couple of financials AQX and BUR. The FTSE 100 rose to 7,685 last week, an increase of +2.9%. The Nasdaq100 and the S&P500 were […]

The Swiss Central Bank’s balance sheet in 2022 shows signs that Credit Suisse’s problems were well understood, but harder for the authorities to resolve. Companies covered KAPE, SDRY, ALPH and EQLS.  The FTSE rose +1% to 7476 in the last five days, most of which was on Monday morning. The Nasdaq100 was up +2% and […]

With the ‘rescue’ of Credit Suisse over the weekend, Bruce ponders what might happen next and which indicators to focus on. Companies covered BUR and TCAP. The FTSE 100 fell -2.5% to 7,358 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.4% and 5.8% respectively, indicating that the sell-off in markets has […]

Following the rescue of Silicon Valley Bank, Bruce looks at possible read across to recent IPOs and IP Group. Companies covered IPO, FRAN and Georgian Banks BGEO / TBCG. I suggested last week that the rally was running out of steam. I was not expecting a bank run in Silicon Valley though (SIVB total assets […]

With the rally running out of steam, Bruce looks at long-run equity returns. The two banks which compete to publish this data have performed much worse than the average equity. Companies covered SHC, RMV and RCDO. The rally seems to be running out of steam. The FTSE 100 was down -0.2% to 7,917. The Nasdaq […]

Bruce looks at the Berkshire Hathaway 2022 shareholder letter, which Buffett published over the weekend.  Stocks covered AVAP, SLP and GBG. The FTSE 100 remained just below 8,000, and was down less than -1%, recovering from a sell-off early last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 sold off more heavily, down -3.9% and -3.0% respectively. The […]

Cross-border liquidity could be driving the market rally, so it’s worth keeping an eye on Central Banks in China and Japan.  Companies covered KAPE, HL. and BGEO.  The FTSE traded above 8,000 last week, up +0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 was up +0.4% while the S&P 500 was down -0.3%. The US 10Y bond yield has […]

With equity markets and industrial metals like copper rallying at the start of this year, Bruce looks at some companies geared into the recovery. SDRY, NFC, SAA, BOTB and CWR. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,774 in the last 5 trading days. In the US the S&P was up +2.5% and the Nasdaq 100 […]

Bruce looks at the government’s misguided attempt to defend the pound with capital controls in the 1970s. Companies covered are forex traders ALPH and EQLS, plus CAPD. The FTSE 100 was down 0.9% in the last 5 days to 7,791. The S&P500 was down -0.3% while Nasdaq100 was up +1.39% over the same time period. […]

Bruce looks at Terry Smith’s 13th annual shareholder letter and compares what he’s now saying about his META investment to his commentary a couple of years ago.  Companies covered GAW, TMG, FRAN, QTX The strong start to the year continues, with the FTSE 100 +1.64% to 7,851 in the last 5 days, approaching an all-time […]

Bruce looks at how the warm weather in Europe has been affecting financial markets.  Companies covered NXT and CNC, plus profit warnings from HEIQ and FDEV. The FTSE 100 has enjoyed a strong early January, up +3.4% to 7,705. OCDO was up +20%, while IAG (the old British Airways) and BT were up +17% and […]

Bruce asks the FinTwit community for some share ideas for 2023. Also looks at one retailer, SDRY, which could benefit from the recovery. The Santa Rally failed to materialise with the FTSE 100 was down -1.4% in December (and flat for the whole year). The S&P500 was down -19% in 2022, and down -5.7% last […]

Bruce looks at the BoE Financial Stability Report and ponders whether the rising cost of mortgages will cause forced selling in equity markets.  Companies covered FCAP, GAW and ZTF The FTSE 100 was down -1% in the last 5 days to 7,373, with the Nasdaq100 -2.8% and S&P500 -2.1%. The FTSE 100 was also flat […]

Bruce thinks that net outflows from professional fund managers could eventually create an opportunity for amateur investors because we’re not forced to sell when markets fall.  Companies covered K3C, SOLI, MSI, and SDI. The FTSE 100 was down -1.6% in the last five days to 7,446. The S&P500 -3.4% and Nasdaq100 -3.6% were even weaker. […]

Bruce looks at the bounce in markets over the last 2 months and suggests some ideas that could benefit from a recovery in risk appetite.  C4XD, CRL, PEEL, FCAP We’ve had a strong rally in markets since the lows at the beginning of October, the pound is up +15% against the dollar and AIM is […]

Bruce looks at a key aspect of long-term returns, holding on to your gains in down markets.  Company covered CML. The FTSE 100 is up +1.8% in the last 5 days. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up +1.8% and Nasdaq100 was up +1.2%. China is worth keeping an eye on at the moment, as the […]

Bruce ponders if any large corporates are exposed as social proof in crypto disappear.  Companies covered HVO and BMS   The FTSE has been flat at just below 7,400 for the last 5 days. The S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 are both down around -1%. The China FTSE 50, has enjoyed a +22% bounce from its […]

Bruce questions why globalisation has been so bad for the FTSE All Share index versus the S&P500.  Plus a look at CMC Markets H1 results. The FTSE 100 was down -0.9% in the last 5 days, at just above 7,300 with some of the selling coming as the new Chancellor announced his plans for tax […]

Bruce looks at a couple of stocks that have benefited from the US dollar strength / weak pound.  HLN and BGEO. The FTSE 100 was up +0.65% to 7343 in the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were much stronger, +7.7% and 4.9%. Nasdaq has been strong despite the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX […]

Bruce suggests that company managements who are reluctant to physically meet investors could be facing a more uncertain outlook. Companies covered ABF and AGFX The FTSE 100 was up +1.4% in the last 5 days to 7296, while the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +0.8% and +1.0% respectively. The pound weakened slightly versus to 1.138 […]

Bruce looks at the FT30 index, which Sharepad has going back to 1935. Plus a couple of hydrogen stocks, that are currently too speculative for him:  ATOM and AFC The FTSE 100 has recovered well in the last 5 days up +2.9%. By contrast, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -4.7% and 2.3% respectively in […]

Bruce looks at two financial businesses that recently reported Q3 results, both delivering around 7% RoCE. Yet one trades on 5x sales, and the other 0.7x.  LSEG and TCAP. The FTSE 100 is up +0.7% in the last 5 days. Nasdaq100 is down -3.4% and the S&P500 was down -2.2%. Much of that sell-off came […]

Bruce looks at the history of Brompton’s growth, and the trade-offs required to fund expansion. Plus a look at UK banks margin trends and James Cropper CRPR profit warning. The FTSE 100 rose +0.65% in the last 5 days and managed to consolidate above 7,000. Despite US tech stocks reporting a difficult quarter last week, […]

Bruce comments on Superdry’s auditor resignation and summarises Q3 trends at UK banks. The FTSE 100 rose above 7000 to 7,057. Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were around +3.0% and +4.5% over the last 5 days. Brent crude remains at mid $94 per barrel. The UK 10Y bond yield fell to 3.62% and the US […]

Bruce looks at WISE and AFX, currency traders that are benefiting from the market volatility and rising interest rates.  He compares their investment case to the UK banks reporting this week. Despite all the volatility of the last week, the FTSE 100 was actually flat at 6,937 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and […]

Two very different US financial personalities believe that US interest rates are rising too fast.  No doubt bankers and fund managers are talking their own book, but that doesn’t mean they’re wrong.  Stocks covered AT., BDEV, DARK  The FTSE 100 failed to consolidate above 7,000 and was down -3.8% last week. The Nasdaq100 was down […]

Bruce updates a chart Terry Smith first published in the FT in 2014, looking at Tesco EPS progress versus declining Return on Capital.  Other companies featured IPX, SDRY, GRG and AGFX.   The FTSE 100 recovered to just above 7000 last week and the pound recovered to 1.12 to the dollar. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 […]

Bruce looks at the performance of large cap sectors YTD, and suggests rules of thumb for trying to time the turn in different sectors. Companies covered NFC, ASY, SMV, BGO and BOKU. The FTSE 100 was down -3.3% last week, falling below the 7,000 level. The S&P and Nasdaq100 were both down -1.3%. The UK […]

Bruce suggests that political leaders need a risk manager, to prevent them from increasing risk as a position moves against them.  Companies covered MOON, and computer games companies FDEV and KWS. The FTSE 100 was down -3.1% last week to 7,012. US markets were also weak, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 both down -3.0%. […]

Bruce considers whether profit warnings in the insurance and adtech signal that too much capital has been chasing too few opportunities.  Sophisticated data models are no replacement for management turning cautious at the top of the cycle. Stocks covered SDI, RBGP and HOTC profit warning. The FTSE 100 recovered +1.6% last week to 7,276. Markets […]

Bruce ponders the ingredients required to precipitate a systemic crisis, and why memories are so short in financial services.     The FTSE 100 was flat at 7413 over the last 5 days. US markets had a more difficult week with the S&P500 -0.75% and Nasdaq100 -0.60%. The S&P500 is approaching bear market territory down […]

With the BoE now suggesting inflation peaks at 10% later this year, Bruce goes back to 1982 when Dexys Midnight Runners were topping the charts to compare household indebtedness then v now. Stocks covered WATR, CCT and TET. The FTSE 100 fell -1.3% to 7286 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -7% and the S&P500 […]