Even as equity markets have rebounded, some early warning indicators are showing consumer sentiment has deteriorated. Companies covered: THG, CCC and BGO. Brent Crude (BR$SP) has risen to $104 per barrel and is now up +47% since 26th February, when hostilities began in Iran. Natural Gas prices have been diverging between the USA and Europe, […]
As volatility returns, Value investing is beginning to reassert itself over Growth. Bruce Packard examines the shift, covering MWE, CLX and STX. The FTSE 100 rose +2.3% to 10,610 over the last 5 trading days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up even more strongly, +5.0% and +4.2% respectively. The Vix has fallen below 20. So […]
Bruce Packard highlights why, despite a darkening near-term outlook, investors may still have reasons to stay optimistic for the long term, as he examines developments across Burford (BUR), YouGov (YOU) and Treatt (TET). The FTSE 100 was up +2.3% in the last 5 days, and is now 10,195, helped by oil companies, miners and pharma […]
AIM has fallen through key moving average support levels, suggesting it may be time to trim portfolios and cut low conviction or losing positions. Companies covered NESF, TCAP and CBG. The FTSE 100 was flat over the last 5 days, currently 10,388 – but with some significant daily swings. The peak at the end of […]
Bruce returns with a looks at some of AIM’s top performers (EEE, MTL, YU.) since the market peaked in Sept 2021. Plus results from SRT and CRW. The FTSE 100 fell -1% but remained above 10,000 over the last 5 trading days. The Nasdaq100 was up +1%, while the FTSE China 50 fell -4.6%. Brent […]
Stepping in for Bruce this week, Jamie Ward looks at effect of Claude AI on SaaS businesses and wonders whether the banking industry can give insights as to the likely path forward for these businesses. He then reviews RELX (REL), the Schroders (SDR) takeover and Renishaw (RSW). The week before last, Anthropic (maker of the […]
Bruce takes a look at Cathie Wood’s research on previous tech bubbles and what peak Capex to GDP tells us about the current AI spending boom. Companies covered SLP, SFOR, NFG and LUCE. The FTSE 100, though rose +1.2% to 10,329 over the last 5 trading days. Nasdaq was flat and the S&P500 up less […]
Bruce takes a look at the causes of volatility in the natural gas price, and what this might signal for equity markets. Companies covered CKN, EYE, CTG. The FTSE 100 was down less than 0.5% over the last 5 trading days, but remains above the 10,000 level. Nasdaq was off less than -1%, while the […]
Bruce looks back at how his and others 2025 investment ideas performed, and offers some more ideas for 2026. Only one stock covered, NXT, the retailer often considered a “bellwether” for the UK economy. The FTSE 100 was +1.3% since the start of the new year to 10,064. Babcock, Rolls Royce and BAE Systems were […]
Bruce Packard reviews a year where gold has outshone global equity markets, with a muted Santa Rally doing little to close the gap. He examines the forces behind the surge and assesses a mix of consumer, mining and leisure stocks. Companies covered WINE, JLP, BOWL, XPF. The FTSE 100 was up +2% to 9,879 with […]
A look at how an Annual Review could help improve your investment process (for instance, avoid catching falling knives!) Companies covered TRST, PEEL and APN. The “Santa Rally” has not yet appeared, with the FTSE 100 down -0.6% to 9,642 over the last 5 trading days. The Nasdaq100 and the S&P500 were up +1% and […]
Bruce takes a look at how liquidity trends in international government bond markets might be spilling over to equities markets. Companies covered: JMAT, CML, SAA and SFOR The FTSE 100 ended flat over the last 5 trading days, and is now up +17% YTD. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 also recovered strongly at the start of […]
Bruce Packard reviews how past Mello London presenters have performed, revealing funds outpacing most small-cap companies. He also analyses updates from Diageo (DGE), Ceres Power (CWR) and Solid State (SOLI) – exploring what their latest moves say about the wider market mood. The FTSE 100 was up +1.6% to 9,870 over the last 5 trading […]
Bruce looks at what divergent performance between energy commodities and precious metals signal about industrial demand and Central Bank liquidity. Companies covered CAPD, CLBS and BVXP. The FTSE 100 was rose +2.4% over the last trading days to 9,656. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +2.7% and +2.1% respectively. The CSI 300 Index (Shanghai) was […]
There could be a bubble in more speculative areas in the US, but with the UK having suffered billions of fund manager outflows, perhaps UK stocks could now prove a safe haven. Companies covered DIA, IHC and TSTL.
As gold has continued to perform well, Bruce looks at shares in consumer brands that have historically done well in inflationary times. Company results covered: RPI, GDWN and FUTR. The FTSE 100 was down less than -0.5% to 9,275 over the last 5 trading days. In the US, both the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both […]
Bruce takes a look back to the 1980’s, for inspiration on how to fix London’s broken IPO market. Companies covered: NFG’s disclosure around its Mach49 acquisition, and transport software group TRCS. The FTSE 100 fell -1% to 9,162 over the last 5 trading days, driven by banks (NatWest down -8%, Lloyds -5%) as a think […]
With Natural Gas down -20% YTD, renewable energy sources could be replacing demand for fossil fuels, reducing the risk of 1970’s style stagflation. Companies covered PLUS, MHA and ZTF. The FTSE 100 bounced around over the last 5 trading days, but finished flat versus the previous week at 9,172. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up […]
A look at the valuations achieved by US-listed dog walking apps, Wag and Rover. Companies covered STVG, GRG, CBG and OCN. The FTSE 100 continues to hold it’s level above 9,000, but was up less than +0.5% over the last 5 days and currently sits at 9,165. The Nasdaq100 was down -0.7% and S&P500 -0.9%. […]
How confident can we be that the tech companies spending hundreds of billions of capex on LLM will generate adequate returns? Companies covered MANO and AOM. The FTSE 100 was up around +0.5% over the last 5 trading days. In comparison, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up just under +1%. Platinum (PT$) is now the […]
A look at how scanning headlines is no substitute for assessing closely the investment case of individual stocks. Companies covered PEEL, CPI, OHGR The FTSE 100 was down less than half a percent to 8,792 over the last 5 trading days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up around +1% over the same timeframe. The […]
A look at the number of companies leaving AIM, and whether brokers’ hope of a recovery in IPOs will help investors. Companies covered SDI, CBG and BEG. The FTSE 100 was up less than half a percent to 8,717 over the last 5 days. The index is now flat versus the start of April, just […]
A look at what has gone wrong at AGFX, including management’s voluntary disclosure around liquidity risk versus the reality of zero-zero margins. Other companies covered MERC and ELIX. The FTSE 100 was up +1% to 8,422 in the last 5 days. US markets rallied much more strongly, with the Nasdaq100 up +9% and the S&P500 […]
A look at why bull markets climb a “wall of worry”, but crashes are fast and brutal. Companies covered VLX, BOOM and CNC. It’s been a wild couple of weeks! Here’s a Sharescope chart of how the major indices have performed since 2nd April. Apologies for the amount of red in the chart… The […]
A look at Larry Fink’s letter to BlackRock shareholders. The US asset manager has $11.6 trillion of AuM, and saw $281bn of inflows in Q4 alone. Companies covered AVON, BWY, VTY and FRAN. The FTSE 100 was flat over the last 5 days, at 8680. US indices had a difficult week, with the Nasdaq100 […]
Indicators in the government bond, corporate credit and commodity markets, suggest little contagion from the sell-off in US equities. Companies covered: JUST, SOM and SRC. – The FTSE 100 was up +2.5% in the last 5 days, to 8,710. Nasdaq100 is now down -5.7% YTD and the Nasdaq Composite is the worst-performing major index, down […]
A look at Buffett’s rudimentary textual analysis of management discussion of mistakes and errors. Companies covered: QTX, IPF, WATR. The FTSE 100 was up +2% in the last 5 days to 8,832, helped by a blistering rally in Aerospace and Defence stocks, Rolls Royce +28% and BAE Systems +18%. Over the same time, the Nasdaq100 […]
A look at some of Cathie Wood’s “Big Ideas” and ARKK ETF portfolio. Companies covered PRV, PZC and BATS. The FTSE 100 ended the week around 8,735, up +0.4%. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.2% and +0.5%, respectively. The best-performing index YTD has been the FTSE China 50, +15% followed by the German DAX […]
A look at Rory Sutherland’s idea of “slow intelligence”, and if it makes sense to make processes less efficient. Companies covered: RNWH, BBSN, FEVR. We’ve seen significant volatility over the last couple of weeks, first with Nvidia’s reaction to DeepSeek’s AI model then Donald Trump’s tariff announcements. After all that, the FTSE 100 ended […]
A look at a couple of stocks that are off 80-90% from their highs, but which may have formed a bottom with a +20% bounce last week. ONT and FDEV, plus taking a look at IKA. The FTSE 100 bounced +3.6% last week to 8,524. That’s ahead of the Nasdaq100 up +2.8% and the S&P500 […]
A review of investing ideas for 2025, including AVAP and AT. plus financials WISE and FCH. Also covered TMG’s disposal of its US operations. The FTSE 100 didn’t see much of a “Santa Rally”, down -1% since the start of December. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.9% and down -1.5%, despite enjoying a very […]
A look at how the Nasdaq’s 2021 vintage of IPOs has compared to the same vintage on AIM. Companies covered: FTC, IPX, GDWN. The FTSE 100 fell -2% to 8081 last week. The S&P500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs, but then sold off -2% following a “hawkish rate cut” from the Fed. That is, the […]
A look at the capex boom from Artificial Intelligence and data centres, and who the winner(s) might be. Companies covered: W7L’s bid for BAR, EAH and VNET. The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 8,328. The Nasdaq100 was much stronger +3.3%, while the S&P was up around +1% over the last 5 trading days. […]
A look at whether rising Natural Gas prices might threaten the market rally, and whether renewables might help offset the pain. Companies mentioned NESF, TAM, TRU and MTEC. The FTSE 100 was up +2.3% last week to 8,294, helped by a weak pound. The pound has fallen -6% from 1.34 against the dollar to 1.26 […]
A look at how different asset classes have responded to the US election result, and whether there might be some inconsistent thinking therein. Companies covered: ZTF, TCAP and SFOR, plus a brief look at the AQX bid approach. The FTSE 100 was down around -0.5% last week to 8,125. In the US, the Nasdaq100 […]
A look at the movements at the long end of the government bond yield curve, and the implications for equity investors. Companies covered GBG, CER and PCIP. The FTSE 100 was down -1% last week to 8,223. The Nasdaq100 was flat, while the S&P500 was down -1%. The price of palladium was up +9% last […]
A look at what might be causing the divergence in performance between the FTSE Small Cap (SMX) index -8%, which has outperformed FTSE AIM (AXX) -44% since Sept 2021. Companies covered CAV, WYN and TET. The FTSE 100 was down -0.75% to 8,244 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up just over +1%. […]
A look at stimulus coming from the People’s Bank of China and deficit spending by Western governments, both of which seem expansionary. Companies covered: IPO, OMG and ABDP. The FTSE 100 was flat last week, bouncing around 8,270. In the USA, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than +1%. China on the other […]
Bruce looks at the reversal in the copper price, and what this might signal about global growth and interest rate expectations. Companies covered WOSG, HVO and FEVR. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 8,273. US markets were much stronger, with the Nasdaq100 up +6.% and the S&P500 up +4%. That seems to be driven by […]
A look at UK retail fund flow data, from the Investment Association, which represents UK Fund Management Firms. Companies covered CLX, AQX and ESYS. The FTSE 100 was up +0.5% to 8,369 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -0.7% and the S&P500 was flat. Both of these US indices are up +25% YTD, whereas AIM […]
A look at Nvidia, which is forecast to grow sales by 11x since 2020, compared to Cisco Systems valuation in the previous technology bubble. Companies covered BUR, CGEO and GHH. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 8,294 last week. The Nasdaq 100 has recovered strongly from its wobble earlier in August, and was up +5.4% […]
A difficult start to August seems to be driven by the Japanese carry-trade unwinding. Companies covered: DATA, LTG, CRPR. Markets sold off heavily on Monday. The FTSE 100 fell -3.6% in the last 5 days to 7,974. Meanwhile, the futures market suggested that US markets would start the week badly. The FT contained an article […]
Some background reading on cybersecurity and hacking, topical in the wake of Crowdstrike-related chaos from last week. Companies covered TRST, RNO and CRL. The FTSE 100 rose +0.5% to 8,216 last week. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -4% and -2% respectively. For contrast, the Russell 2000 small cap index jumped +7%, encouraged by helpful inflation […]
After a difficult 3 years for London-listed smaller companies, Bruce looks at a couple of reasons to feel positive about the future. Companies covered: MOON, DUKE, EQLS. The FTSE 100 was up less than +0.5% last week to 8,194. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +3% and 1.6% respectively. China remains in the doldrums with […]
A look at mortgage approvals data trends, and how the Election may impact the UK housing market. Companies covered WISE, YOU and IGP. The FTSE 100 rose +1.7% last week to 8,274. The Nasdaq100 and the S&P500 were both up +0.6%. The US 10Y Govt bond yield fell back to 4.25% and yield curves remain […]
A look at the decline of the London Stock Exchange, versus the remarkable performance of the LSEG share price. Companies covered: BGEO, RFX, AGFX The FTSE 100 fell -0.8% in the last 5 days to 8,203. The Nasdaq100 was up +2.5% and the S&P500 +1.3%. The Nasdaq is the second-best performing major index +13 YTD, […]
With the recent +67% spike in Natural Gas prices, Bruce wonders if Central Banks might have declared victory over inflation too soon. Companies covered: KLR, FUTR and AVAP. The FTSE 100 was down -1.2% to 8,317 in the last 5 days. The Prime Minister called an election and there will be lots of hot air […]
Nvidia’s share price has risen by 8x in the last 18 months, yet it is not obvious which businesses their GPUs will disrupt. Stocks covered AGFX, JDW and ULTP. The FTSE 100 rose +2.5% to 8,420 and continues to hit all-time highs. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.5% and +1.8% respectively. Oil was down […]
This week Bruce looks at long-term multi-bagger Jet2, up around 120x from its 2008 low, and Filtronic, which has announced a contract win with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Plus another bid from US Private Equity, this time for cybersecurity firm Darktrace. The FTSE 100 rose +1.9% to 8,175 last week. The US markets performed even better, […]
This week Jamie returns to a topic mentioned late last year; the use of Google Trends to get a sense of how sections of the economy are performing. He then discusses what, if any, investment ideas can be narrowed down. He then reviews the travails of two ex-private equity businesses with similar names. One he […]
This week Jamie talks about the economics of the UK housing market and why he thinks that the house builders’ apparent cheapness is an illusion. He then discusses what he believes are better ways to invest in housing construction and rounds off by reviewing the trading updates of two companies, whose fortune is somewhat determined […]
This week Jamie talks about the remuneration of investment companies, reveals one of his personal investment trust holdings and explains his rationale. He then reviews the current state of Frontier Developments, which has gone from micro-cap to super-star mid-cap and back again in the past few years. Finally, he provides a brief review of the […]
A look at a possible reason for the outperformance of large-cap US technology stocks, and what might reverse the trend in favour of smaller companies. Stocks covered: ZOO, KETL, TMG. The FTSE 100 was up +0.9% last week to 7,952. Nasdaq100 was down -0.3% while the S&P500 was up by a similar amount. China resumed […]
A look at two charts that suggest reasons for growing optimism, even as the UK performance has lagged other markets. Companies covered CEY, CBG and ANP. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% last week to 7,869. The Nasdaq100 was also strong up +3% and the S&P500 up +2.3%. China and Japan enjoyed contrasting fortunes last […]
A look at the performance of gold, and some dividend yield paying shares which should also benefit from the rising gold price. Companies covered: HAT, CAPD and BGEO. The FTSE 100 was up +1% to 7,749 last week. Meanwhile, Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -1.2% and -0.2% respectively. The FTSE China 50 has now […]
A look at how commodity prices have performed since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Companies covered: BKS, FCH and NEXN. The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 7,629, as were the S&P500 and the FTSE China 50. The Nasdaq100 was down -1.5%. Bitcoin rose +9% to within touching distance of $70K and gold was up […]
A trend following signal for AIM is close to turning positive, so we could see confidence return in smaller UK stocks. Companies covered: ENSI, ADF and RMV. The FTSE 100 was down -0.4% to 7,659 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +2.0 and +1.0% respectively. In the US the bull market continues, with […]
Bruce looks at an old equity research note from 1993 and ponders if in some sectors customers receive a better deal than shareholders. Companies covered BARC, HL., LOK, ARC The FTSE 100 fell -0.6% last week to 7,683. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +0.5% and +1.7% respectively. The excitement was provided by Nvidia results, […]
This week, Jamie discusses a solution to using return on capital employed when the capital employed part of the equation is missing. He does so through the lens of ARM Holdings, which became the third-largest UK company by market capitalisation last week. You have to feel somewhat for whoever compiled and proofread the trading update […]
This week, Jamie talks about two types of equity investment those which should be held with the intention of an indefinite horizon and those that are expected to be sold. He then compares three companies, two of which he thinks should be long term holds and the other one only to be traded. The commentary […]
Jamie Ward takes over this week’s Weekly Market Commentary. Companies covered: SDY & SDRY. After a prolonged period of unpredictable economic data, most of the big releases last week were either in line with expectations or slightly better. Most of it wasn’t good in an absolute sense but taken as a snapshot, last week’s figures […]
Bruce remembers a metaphor from the founder of the Georgian Stock Exchange and wonders how it might apply to Chinese financial markets. Companies covered: FEVR, ELCO, FNX, BOKU. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% to 7653 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.4% and 1.1%. Brent Crude was up +4% in the last 5 […]
While active fund managers are seeing redemptions, platforms like AJB and IHP have been reporting healthy quarterly inflows. Other stocks covered DPP, NXQ, CRPR. The FTSE 100 fell -1.7% last week to 7,466. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.9% and 1.25% respectively. US markets are enjoying a reasonably strong start to the year, and are […]
Terry Smith has published his annual performance update letter, plus a look at companies in the listed active fund manager sector. Companies covered JUP, ASHM, IPX, POLR, PMI. The FTSE 100 fell -1% to 7613 last week. The Nasdaq100 was up +3.2% and the S&P was up +1.8% in the last five trading days. […]
Bruce looks at why the inverted yield curve seems to have sent a false signal about a recession. Companies covered: JD. and CMCX. The FTSE 100 fell -0.9% to 7,658 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -3.5% and the S&P500 was down -1.8%. The FTSE China 50 was the worst performing index, down -4.7% […]
Bruce reviews 2023 performance and the outlook for this year. Plus a detailed write-up of aircraft leasing business AVAP. Last year the Nasdaq 100 was the best-performing major index, up +54%, followed by Japan’s Nikkei. Not something that many people would have predicted. The S&P500 also did well +24% last year, followed by the […]
This week, Jamie Ward briefly talks about the latest update from Dewhurst. He then demonstrates that markets are frequently not efficient by reviewing the performance of a couple of the COVID winners to see if it can inform future investment decisions. Finally, he shows how to use Sharepad to screen for businesses that attempt to […]
With Central Banks turning dovish, Bruce looks for the 16 / 64 day moving average crossover to call the turn to a more bullish market in 2024. Stocks covered investment platforms AJB, HL. plus defence stocks CHRT and MSI. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 7617 last week. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up […]
Bruce looks at the prospects for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and wonders if this will become a source of market instability in 2024. Companies covered CML, SOLI, and SDI. The FTSE 100 was flat last week, hovering around the 7,500 mark. In the US, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than half a […]
Bruce ponders why some companies that operate in the same sector enjoy such radically different fortunes. Companies covered MPE, LTHM, and MIND. The FTSE 100 rose +0.6% to 7,506 last week. The Nasdaq100 was flat, while the S&P500 rose +0.8%. The price of gold rose +2% to $2,035, which seems to have been driven by […]
This week, Jamie Ward talks about why missing out on some great investments might not be a bad thing, especially when thinking of the wider context where you may have invested in something better. He believes that having a process is far more important than whether you did or did not buy a security and […]
This week, Jamie Ward returns to talk about how passive investing is logical but isn’t really investing. He also posits that passive investment cannot exist without active investment but the reverse is not true. Companies covered: DCC, OCN. US inflation data set the tone for markets last week. The previous readings for US core and […]
While away on an Australian retreat, Bruce asked ex-fund manager and private investor Jamie Ward to manage his weekly commentary for the upcoming weeks. Jamie takes a look into Diego DGE, Beazley BEZ and The Works WRKS. Markets had a poor end to an otherwise rather uneventful week. This resulted in equity markets being down […]
With two more bids coming in for small-cap stocks, Bruce looks at the average premiums being offered by buyers. Companies covered: AML, ULTP and HEIQ. The FTSE 100 was up +1.3% to 7,426 last week. Meanwhile, there was a very strong rally in the US markets with Nasdaq100 +6.4% and the S&P500 up +5.9%. […]
As two more bids come in for small-cap listed companies, and another Private Equity IPO disappoints, Bruce looks at the trends that are shrinking public stock markets. Companies covered: CABP, OMG, IPF. The FTSE 100 was down -1.5% to 7,291 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -2.6% and the S&P500 was down -2.5%. US […]
Bruce looks at UK fund manager outflows, both at an industry level and manager-specific level. Companies covered: STJ, HL., BPM, LIO, TMG. The FTSE 100 was down -3.2% last week to 7,384. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were also both down -2.9% and -2.4% respectively, with the FTSE China 50 off even more steeply at -4.7% over […]
Bruce looks at what we can learn from Oscar Wilde and a half-bearded psychology professor on flawed narratives that capture people’s imagination. Companies covered: IPX, SDG, YOU, OXIG and MRK. The FTSE 100 was up +1.35% to 7,596. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than +0.5% in the last five days. In Japan, […]
Attempts to widen direct equity ownership in the UK stock market are gathering pace, even as the high dividend yields on fund managers are signalling problems with that business model. Stocks covered BOO, PEEL, MTRO. The FTSE 100 was up +0.3% to 7,536 last week. The Nasdaq100 rose +1.8% and the S&P500 was up +0.5%. […]
Bruce uses Sharepad to look at recent movements in the US long bond yields USTSY10 and the bondholder total return TLT ETF. Companies covered, PZC, YU, SCE and GTC. The FTSE 100 fell -1.8% in the last 5 trading days to 7613. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were flat and down -0.75% respectively. The FTSE […]
Bruce suggests that government bonds and mortgages have been beneficiaries of Basel banking regulations over the last few decades. The effects of rising interest rates won’t be limited to the UK housing market. Companies covered HL., CODE and 4BB. The FTSE 100 was down -0.3% to 7,630 over the last five trading days. The Nasdaq […]
Bruce suggests that rather than ARM’s successful IPO, the likely catalyst for more companies coming to market will be retail flows into funds. Companies covered ELIX, FEVR and FDEV. The FTSE 100 was up +2.6% last week to 7,688 helped by mining stocks and financials. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both down less than -0.5%. […]
Bruce reviews a recent book Chaos Kings, on investors who benefit from financial crises and volatility. Companies covered BUR, STVG, WINK and CVSG. The FTSE 100 was up 0.5% to 7,494 last week and was the best-performing major indices other than the Mumbai S&P BSE +2.1% over that time period. Nasdaq100 and S&P were down […]
If the price of trophy assets like football clubs are wildly above intrinsic value, perhaps there’s a way for less wealthy investors to benefit from the same theme? Companies covered SDRY, BNZL and PBEE. The FTSE 100 was up +2.4% at 7,511 last week. The index is exactly flat on 5 years, though what 5 […]
Bruce looks at UK retail equity fund flows, and their implications for future expected returns. Companies covered CMCX, EYE, TRCS. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to close at 7,338 over the bank holiday weekend. The Nasdaq100 was up +1.7%, while the FTSE China 50 was up very strongly +5.1% as their Ministry of Finance cut […]
Bruce suggests that the nature of cross border capital flows might present an opportunity in front of our eyes, in FTSE and AIM stocks. Companies covered LGEN, JUST and TRMR. Last week I suggested that with the VIX below 16, some complacency might be creeping back into markets. Right on cue, the FTSE 100 fell […]
The VIX index is currently below 16, signalling some complacency may be creeping back into markets, so Bruce looks at the deterioration in near term liquidity measures. Stocks covered: SDI, D4T4 and JIM. The FTSE 100 was down -0.6% to 7,509, while the Nasdaq100 fell -1.6% and the S&P500 was down -0.3%. The price […]
Bruce uses Sharepad to look at H1 mortgage approvals data going back to the mid-1990s, and house prices back to the 1950s. Companies covered: GRG, TW. and DEVO. All three of the FTSE 100, S&P500 and FTSE China50 were down -2.2% in the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 was even worse down -3%. The US […]
Bruce makes some broad observations about how economists’ models drive Central Bank behaviour and interest rate expectations. Companies covered: LLOY, TSTL, RBGP The FTSE 100 was flat in the last five days at 7,688. Nasdaq100 was up +2% and the S&P500 was +0.75%. The FTSE China 50 Index was up +3.9% as the renminbi rose […]
With inflation peaking in the UK (at least for now), Bruce looks at some larger cap stocks that have broken through their 200-day moving averages on the upside. Companies covered: ONT, DARK, HL., AJB The FTSE 100 enjoyed a strong week up 3.4% to 7,658 as last week the UK’s inflation data was better than […]
Bruce looks at the prospects for the UK Buy-to-Let market in the BoE’s Financial Stability Review, and wonders if rising interest rates are driving higher rents, which could be causing an inflationary feedback loop. Companies covered SHOE, MEGP and ZOO. The FTSE 100 enjoyed a positive week up +1.9% to 7,415, while the Nasdaq100 was […]
While the dividend yield on the FTSE and AIM indices is not high relative to history, it does seem remarkable that >8% yields are available on companies in so many different sectors. Stocks covered KOO, SUP and SMV. The FTSE 100 fell -3.5% in the last 5 days, with the Nasdaq 100 up +0.7% and […]
Bruce looks at the idea of tail risk hedging but thinks that the strategy might be too difficult for private investors to implement. Instead, companies significant cash could be an interesting theme for H2. Companies covered WISE, TBLD and DPP. The FTSE 100 rose +1.4% last week to 7556, while the Nasdaq10 and S&P 500 […]
Bruce suggests that unemployment, rather than interest rates, will be the driver of banks’ bad debts. Companies covered MANO, and profit warnings from SOM and HOTC, plus Teddy Sagi’s bid for BOTB. After an entertaining weekend in Russia, one observation from a military friend who was in the Donbass, now in Libya, is that a […]
Bruce looks at recent trends in the IPO market and questions whether attracting new listings at any price really is good news for investors in London’s equity capital markets. Companies covered W7L, FDEV and VNET. The FTSE 100 was up +0.5% to 7,618 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +3.8% […]
Bruce looks at the divergent performance of the Nasdaq100 +22% since its October lows, versus AIM which is flat over the same time period. Companies covered OMG, GHH, OCN and ADB. The FTSE 100 fell -0.3% to 7,573 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both flat over the last 5 trading days. A week […]
Bruce looks at 3 companies on low teens PERs that reported last week: BOWL, BMY and DOCS. But he wonders if copper is suggesting negative macroeconomic news that is not yet priced in. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7646 last week. In the last 5 days, the Nasdaq100 was very strong, up +4.4% and […]
Bruce looks at trends in core inflation, plus observes first-hand that the UK economy has been stronger than many predicted. Companies covered AJB, ETP and HEAD. The FTSE 100 was down -1.7% in the last 5 days to 7,627. The Nasdaq100 was up +2.5% and the S&P 500 was flat. The price of gold was […]
Bruce uses Sharepad to graph UK house prices and mortgage approvals data back to the 1980s. Companies covered BLV, SHOE and OTB. The FTSE 100 was flat in the last 5 days, at 7,774. The Nasdaq100 was up strongly +3.4%, as was the KBW US regional banks index (KRE) up +7.7% while the S&P500 was […]
Bruce uses Sharepad to analyse the performance of MANU shares, listed on the NYSE. The football team presents some interesting challenges for valuing debt-funded intangible assets. Plus SDI’s profit warning, and CGEO’s Q1 results. The Bank of England raised interest rates to 4.5% last week, as the FTSE 100 rose +0.7% to 7,754. Since last […]
Bruce looks at Prof Altman’s credit analysis, going back 4 decades, suggesting US corporate default rates might rise above average, so understanding Sharepad’s Altman Z score could prove valuable. Stocks covered HEIQ, SDRY, LLOY, HL. and KITW. The FTSE 100 fell -1.2% to 7,737 in the last 5 days. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 were […]
