Weekly Market Commentary | 12/03/2024 | BKS, FCH, NEXN | A good thing that the world doesn’t run on chocolate

A look at how commodity prices have performed since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Companies covered: BKS, FCH and NEXN. The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 7,629, as were the S&P500 and the FTSE China 50. The Nasdaq100 was down -1.5%. Bitcoin rose +9% to within touching distance of $70K and gold was up […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 05/03/2024 | ENSI, ADF, RMV | AIM cross-over approaching?

A trend following signal for AIM is close to turning positive, so we could see confidence return in smaller UK stocks.  Companies covered: ENSI, ADF and RMV. The FTSE 100 was down -0.4% to 7,659 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +2.0 and +1.0% respectively. In the US the bull market continues, with […]

Monthly Fund Focus: 52-Week Discount List, Junior Miners ETF, Japanese Funds, D9

This month we track down the listed investment funds which are still trading near their 52-week discount peaks and take a closer look at the worst offender in this category – the Digital 9 Infrastructure trust which is on the receiving end of yet more bad news. Not all big discount funds are worth the […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Property Franchise

Property Franchise has consistently exhibited attractive financials and will soon combine with rival Belvoir. Maynard Paton delves into the small-cap’s balance sheet, acquisitive history, franchising KPIs and merger prospects. Today I am studying Property Franchise, an estate-agency franchising business that appeared on my radar after I reviewed fellow estate-agency franchisor Belvoir last year. To recap, […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 27/02/2024 | BARC, HL., LOK, ARC | Where are all the shareholders’ yachts?

Bruce looks at an old equity research note from 1993 and ponders if in some sectors customers receive a better deal than shareholders. Companies covered BARC, HL., LOK, ARC The FTSE 100 fell -0.6% last week to 7,683. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +0.5% and +1.7% respectively. The excitement was provided by Nvidia results, […]

Is it time to ditch ROCE as a measure of company performance?

Phil looks at the issues with one of the most important ratios in investing and argues the case for a cleaner and more realistic alternative. Return on investment or return on capital employed (ROCE) as it is commonly referred to is seen as one of the best measures of a company’s financial performance. It is […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 20/02/2024 | GNS, ANIC | Yo Adrian, I did it

This week, Jamie discusses a solution to using return on capital employed when the capital employed part of the equation is missing. He does so through the lens of ARM Holdings, which became the third-largest UK company by market capitalisation last week. You have to feel somewhat for whoever compiled and proofread the trading update […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 13/02/2024 | RSW, DCC, BDEV | Rent vs. Own

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This week, Jamie talks about two types of equity investment those which should be held with the intention of an indefinite horizon and those that are expected to be sold. He then compares three companies, two of which he thinks should be long term holds and the other one only to be traded. The commentary […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 06/02/2024 | SDY, SDRY | Where there’s muck there’s brass

Jamie Ward takes over this week’s Weekly Market Commentary. Companies covered: SDY & SDRY. After a prolonged period of unpredictable economic data, most of the big releases last week were either in line with expectations or slightly better. Most of it wasn’t good in an absolute sense but taken as a snapshot, last week’s figures […]

Eight Common Investing Mistakes Made by Private Investors

“Investing success is two-thirds avoiding mistakes, one-third doing something right.”- Ken Fisher Private investing offers the opportunity for individuals to take control of their finances and even achieve financial freedom. However, without proper knowledge and preparation, private investors can unknowingly make mistakes that hinder their portfolio investment returns. Of course, because we are human, it […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 30/01/2024 | FEVR, ELCO, FNX, BOKU | Gogi’s barometer

Bruce remembers a metaphor from the founder of the Georgian Stock Exchange and wonders how it might apply to Chinese financial markets. Companies covered: FEVR, ELCO, FNX, BOKU. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% to 7653 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.4% and 1.1%. Brent Crude was up +4% in the last 5 […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Asset Class Idea, UK PLC Review, Leveraged Shares and Tech

In this month’s focus on funds, we take a quick look at asset class returns in 2023 courtesy of some wonderful heatmaps, we eavesdrop on a recent bank event at the state of UK PLC, and we examine an under-owned asset class that could be the verge of big things – local currency emerging markets […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Sosandar (LSE: SOS)

Fashion website Sosandar plans to open shops to bolster its sales and margins. Maynard Paton weighs up management’s bold financial ambition against the wider sector’s haphazard progress. Fashion website Sosandar provides a fascinating dilemma for small-cap growth investors. Bulls will highlight the online retailer’s very rapid expansion and bold ambition to raise profits to £10 […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 23/01/2024 | DPP, NXQ, CRPR | Following the fund flows

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While active fund managers are seeing redemptions, platforms like AJB and IHP have been reporting healthy quarterly inflows.  Other stocks covered DPP, NXQ, CRPR. The FTSE 100 fell -1.7% last week to 7,466. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.9% and 1.25% respectively. US markets are enjoying a reasonably strong start to the year, and are […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 16/01/2024 | JUP, ASHM, IPX, POLR, PMI | Terry Smith and other historians

Terry Smith has published his annual performance update letter, plus a look at companies in the listed active fund manager sector. Companies covered JUP, ASHM, IPX, POLR, PMI.   The FTSE 100 fell -1% to 7613 last week. The Nasdaq100 was up +3.2% and the S&P was up +1.8% in the last five trading days. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 09/01/2024 | JD., CMCX | How the yield curve got it wrong

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Bruce looks at why the inverted yield curve seems to have sent a false signal about a recession.  Companies covered: JD. and CMCX.   The FTSE 100 fell -0.9% to 7,658 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -3.5% and the S&P500 was down -1.8%. The FTSE China 50 was the worst performing index, down -4.7% […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 03/01/2024 | AVAP | What’s in store for 2024?

Bruce reviews 2023 performance and the outlook for this year. Plus a detailed write-up of aircraft leasing business AVAP.   Last year the Nasdaq 100 was the best-performing major index, up +54%, followed by Japan’s Nikkei. Not something that many people would have predicted. The S&P500 also did well +24% last year, followed by the […]

My SharePad system

Having used the 5 Strikes system for nine months, Richard has decided it is a keeper. Commenting on the latest investment candidates to achieve less than 3 strikes, he explains what he was thinking while he was separating the wheat from the chaff. Happy New Year! At the turn of every year, I review my […]

Christmas Commentary | 29/12/23 | DWHT/DWHA | Google is your friend | Screening for Bargains

This week, Jamie Ward briefly talks about the latest update from Dewhurst. He then demonstrates that markets are frequently not efficient by reviewing the performance of a couple of the COVID winners to see if it can inform future investment decisions. Finally, he shows how to use Sharepad to screen for businesses that attempt to […]

Monthly Funds focus: Wisdom Tree, L&G ETFs, Global X, Baker Steel Resources Trust

2023 was the year of AI and we end the year with a deep dive into the handful of AI-specific exchange-traded funds or ETFs listed on the London exchange. They all provide real diversification benefits but have lagged big well-known individual stocks such as Nvidia and Microsoft. We also have a deep dive into a […]

Riding the Lithium Rollercoaster: Navigating the Peaks and Troughs of the EV Revolution

As a seasoned observer and participant in the lithium market, I’ve navigated through its ebbs and flows with a blend of caution and opportunism. My investment strategy, focused on a basket of pre-commercial lithium juniors, was crafted with a long-term vision, fully aware of the turbulent waters of this sector, warned readers, for which I […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/12/2023 | AJB, HL., CHRT, MSI | Central Banks turn dovish

With Central Banks turning dovish, Bruce looks for the 16 / 64 day moving average crossover to call the turn to a more bullish market in 2024. Stocks covered investment platforms AJB, HL. plus defence stocks CHRT and MSI. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 7617 last week. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Lok’nStore (LSE: LOK)

A search for ‘owner managers’ leads Maynard Paton to the impressive dividend record of Lok’nStore and the ‘extremely stable’ nature of self storage. I love ‘owner managers’ — company bosses with significant shareholdings who want to build wealth for the long haul. Such leaders do seem to act differently to standard chief executives. A hefty […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 12/12/2023 | CML, SOLI, SDI | Instability from property?

Bruce looks at the prospects for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and wonders if this will become a source of market instability in 2024. Companies covered CML, SOLI, and SDI. The FTSE 100 was flat last week, hovering around the 7,500 mark. In the US, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than half a […]

Six new stock ideas

Six shares have passed the first stage of Richard’s 5 Strikes process. Many of them are destined for the “too hard pile”, perhaps the most underrated element in an investor’s toolkit. Here is an update on the latest companies to have published annual reports and passed the 5 Strikes system*. Since the last update four […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 5/12/2023 | MPE, LTHM, MIND | The Singapore Comparison

Bruce ponders why some companies that operate in the same sector enjoy such radically different fortunes. Companies covered MPE, LTHM, and MIND. The FTSE 100 rose +0.6% to 7,506 last week. The Nasdaq100 was flat, while the S&P500 rose +0.8%. The price of gold rose +2% to $2,035, which seems to have been driven by […]

Should private investors follow celebrity fund managers into Rightmove?

There’s no harm in using fund managers as a source for investment ideas but blindly copying them without doing your own research can be a costly mistake. Phil looks at the recent purchase of Rightmove shares by two well-known professional investors to see if private investors should consider buying in as well. Why copying others […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 28/11/2023 | DPLM, SRC, CRH | Trust Your Process

This week, Jamie Ward talks about why missing out on some great investments might not be a bad thing, especially when thinking of the wider context where you may have invested in something better. He believes that having a process is far more important than whether you did or did not buy a security and […]

Tuning out of the day-to-day noise ¦ Markets Post Huge Volume Reversals

In the last update, I looked at the leading markets (NASDAQ & S&P500) and what to expect after the break higher and I also talked about the AI stocks becoming frothy. Can anyone remember AI? So, What Happened? The leading markets melted around 5% higher over the coming weeks and then ran out of steam […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 21/11/2023 | DCC, OCN | Low-Cost Mediocrity

This week, Jamie Ward returns to talk about how passive investing is logical but isn’t really investing. He also posits that passive investment cannot exist without active investment but the reverse is not true. Companies covered: DCC, OCN.  US inflation data set the tone for markets last week. The previous readings for US core and […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Judges Scientific (LSE: JDG)

Judges Scientific has delivered mega-bagger returns for its very early shareholders. Maynard Paton studies the growth and success of the ‘buy and build’ operator. Today’s rough market for small-cap shares could be the exact time to hunt for your next great portfolio winner. Take Judges Scientific, the £540 million group of scientific instrument manufacturers, which […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 14/11/2023 | DGE, BEZ, WRKS | Excessive Ebullience

While away on an Australian retreat, Bruce asked ex-fund manager and private investor Jamie Ward to manage his weekly commentary for the upcoming weeks. Jamie takes a look into Diego DGE, Beazley BEZ and The Works WRKS. Markets had a poor end to an otherwise rather uneventful week. This resulted in equity markets being down […]

15 new stock ideas

It has been a month since Richard revealed the latest shares to pass his 5 Strikes system. The good news, some have passed with flying colours. 5 Strikes* is my main method of discovering new long-term investments, and since we share my discoveries here regularly, some readers will be familiar with it by now. If […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 7/11/23 | AML, ULTP, HEIQ | The bids keep coming

With two more bids coming in for small-cap stocks, Bruce looks at the average premiums being offered by buyers. Companies covered: AML, ULTP and HEIQ.   The FTSE 100 was up +1.3% to 7,426 last week. Meanwhile, there was a very strong rally in the US markets with Nasdaq100 +6.4% and the S&P500 up +5.9%. […]

Private Investing: Choosing your first investments in company shares

For some people, the thought of picking their own shares can be a little bit daunting. Rest assured, it doesn’t have to be. Whilst it is best to do at least a little bit of homework before you part with your hard-earned cash, successful investing does not require a high IQ or lots of specialist […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 31/10/23 | CABP, OMG, IPF | CAB crash

As two more bids come in for small-cap listed companies, and another Private Equity IPO disappoints, Bruce looks at the trends that are shrinking public stock markets. Companies covered: CABP, OMG, IPF.   The FTSE 100 was down -1.5% to 7,291 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -2.6% and the S&P500 was down -2.5%. US […]

Monthly Funds focus: Bond ETFs, US Government Bonds, Quality funds on big discounts

Given the surge in bond yields over the last few weeks, the monthly funds’ article focuses on the opportunities within the bond ETF space, looking first at the universe of cheap UK sterling bond ETFs and then at a wild shot idea, a US Treasury bond ETF that has been an utter dog in recent […]

Hey big spender

The Capex to operating cash flow ratio can tell us a lot about a firm’s priorities. Richard explores the ratios of a number of capital-intensive businesses. For many years I have held shares in Goodwin, a family owned mini-conglomerate of engineering businesses. This gaggle of businesses is capital intensive, which means Goodwin has to invest […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 24/10/23 | STJ, HL., BPM, LIO, TMG | Forced selling creating an opportunity?

Bruce looks at UK fund manager outflows, both at an industry level and manager-specific level. Companies covered: STJ, HL., BPM, LIO, TMG. The FTSE 100 was down -3.2% last week to 7,384. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were also both down -2.9% and -2.4% respectively, with the FTSE China 50 off even more steeply at -4.7% over […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 17/10/23 | IPX, SDG, YOU, OXIG, MRK | Misbelief and markets

Bruce looks at what we can learn from Oscar Wilde and a half-bearded psychology professor on flawed narratives that capture people’s imagination. Companies covered: IPX, SDG, YOU, OXIG and MRK.    The FTSE 100 was up +1.35% to 7,596. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than +0.5% in the last five days. In Japan, […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Fonix Mobile (LSE: FNX)

Significant, acquisition-free expansion is prized by many investors. Maynard Paton studies the organic growth record of pay-by-mobile small-cap Fonix Mobile. Whisper it, but a few UK small-caps are still progressing well and maintaining resilient share prices in this difficult market. Fonix Mobile is a good example. Recent full-year results from this £206 million business showed […]

Private Investing: A brief guide to tax-efficient saving in Isas and Sipps

Tax-efficient savings accounts such as individual savings accounts (Isas) and self-invested personal pensions (SIPPs) are the best option for most savers and investors. Here’s what you need to know. Isas Isas are tax-free savings accounts. This means that you are not liable for tax on any income you receive – such as interest or dividends […]

All the zeros

Since Richard started scoring companies in SharePad last April, twelve companies have scored zero strikes, the best possible score. In this article, he decides which of them to research next. Five-strikes-wise, there is not much to report on. I have awarded four shares that have reported in the last two weeks with less than three […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 10/10/23 | BOO, PEEL, MTRO | Widening direct equity ownership

Attempts to widen direct equity ownership in the UK stock market are gathering pace, even as the high dividend yields on fund managers are signalling problems with that business model. Stocks covered BOO, PEEL, MTRO. The FTSE 100 was up +0.3% to 7,536 last week. The Nasdaq100 rose +1.8% and the S&P500 was up +0.5%. […]

Journeo PLC: Navigating the Road to Transport Innovation

Visiting an old friend in today’s fast-evolving tech landscape, few sectors remain as untouched by innovation as the world of transportation. At the helm of this transformation, one finds Journeo PLC (AIM: JNEO), a trailblazer in information systems and services explicitly curated for transport and local governments. The company’s recent accomplishment — a £2m purchase […]

Are share buybacks good for investors? – a look at the evidence

Phil uses SharePad to examine the impact of share buybacks on shareholder returns. Do they make shareholders better off and should investors focus on growing companies instead? Do share buybacks really make shareholders better off? Should they prefer dividends instead? Opinion is divided on this subject. The great thing about a dividend from an investor’s […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 03/10/23 | PZC, YU, SCE, GTC | Solving Greenspan’s conundrum

Bruce uses Sharepad to look at recent movements in the US long bond yields USTSY10 and the bondholder total return TLT ETF. Companies covered, PZC, YU, SCE and GTC.   The FTSE 100 fell -1.8% in the last 5 trading days to 7613. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were flat and down -0.75% respectively. The FTSE […]

Is SDI cheap?

Shares in SDI have plummeted. Richard examines the price differential between the company, a manufacturer of scientific equipment, and Judges Scientific, a firm it is often compared to. In the last two weeks, my 5 strikes system* has only surfaced two new investment ideas: SDI and Goodwin. These businesses have good financial track records, but […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 26/09/23 | HL., CODE, 4BB | Not just the UK housing market

Bruce suggests that government bonds and mortgages have been beneficiaries of Basel banking regulations over the last few decades. The effects of rising interest rates won’t be limited to the UK housing market. Companies covered HL., CODE and 4BB. The FTSE 100 was down -0.3% to 7,630 over the last five trading days. The Nasdaq […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: NCC (LSE: NCC)

Many great companies still can’t resist ‘diworsifiying’ in the quest for growth. Maynard Paton studies IT specialist NCC and its costly folly beyond software escrow.   “Instead of buying back shares or raising dividends, profitable companies often prefer to blow the money on foolish acquisitions. The dedicated diworsifier seeks out merchandise that is (1) overpriced, […]

Private Investing: Why the free tools on your broker’s website aren’t good enough

If you already have an Isa or Sipp account, you’ll have access to your broker’s free website. This probably provides you with investment data about funds and shares and will also let you see how your investments are doing. Why subscribe to SharePad when you can get all that for free? Well, it is debatable […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/09/23 | ELIX, FEVR, FDEV | Investing against the flows

Bruce suggests that rather than ARM’s successful IPO, the likely catalyst for more companies coming to market will be retail flows into funds. Companies covered ELIX, FEVR and FDEV. The FTSE 100 was up +2.6% last week to 7,688 helped by mining stocks and financials. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both down less than -0.5%. […]

Four companies with (almost) unblemished financial histories

Richard picks holes in the financial histories of four companies and finds little to trouble him. Remarkably Cake Box, a company that published an annual report riddled with errors two years ago, is one of them. As fishing expeditions go, my daily trips in the last two weeks have been particularly unfruitful. Few companies have […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 12/09/23 | BUR, STVG, WINK, CVSG | Chaos Kings

Bruce reviews a recent book Chaos Kings, on investors who benefit from financial crises and volatility. Companies covered BUR, STVG, WINK and CVSG. The FTSE 100 was up 0.5% to 7,494 last week and was the best-performing major indices other than the Mumbai S&P BSE +2.1% over that time period. Nasdaq100 and S&P were down […]

Private Investing: How you can beat the fund managers

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If you are new to private investing, it’s very easy to think “How can I compete with professional fund managers? Surely, I am better off investing my money in their funds and letting them make the decisions”. This article from esteemed investment writer Phil Oakley shows you how. So, are you better off investing all […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 05/09/23 | SDRY, BNZL, PBEE | Emotional dividends

If the price of trophy assets like football clubs are wildly above intrinsic value, perhaps there’s a way for less wealthy investors to benefit from the same theme? Companies covered SDRY, BNZL and PBEE. The FTSE 100 was up +2.4% at 7,511 last week. The index is exactly flat on 5 years, though what 5 […]

Monthly Funds focus: Cordiant Digital Infrastructure, US equities play

This months’ focus on funds explains why a peak in short-term government bond yields might presage a sudden turnaround in sentiment towards the listed infrastructure fund space. We also look at a stockmarket listed venture capital fund that is full of AI early-stage businesses but is valued at well below its book value by a […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 29/08/23 | CMCX, EYE, TRCS | Join the sinful to regain innocence

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Bruce looks at UK retail equity fund flows, and their implications for future expected returns.  Companies covered CMCX, EYE, TRCS. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to close at 7,338 over the bank holiday weekend. The Nasdaq100 was up +1.7%, while the FTSE China 50 was up very strongly +5.1% as their Ministry of Finance cut […]

Behind the Dip: Unravelling Stock Price Drops and Crafting Winning Strategies

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Alpesh Patel OBE looks at the causes and potential strategies when a stock that has risen significantly experiences a sudden drop. When a stock that has risen significantly experiences a sudden drop, it can cause concern for many investors. This situation is common in the stock market, and it’s crucial to understand the reasons behind […]

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