The Naked Trader: 6 things I’ve learned from Private Investors in the last 5 years

I’ve just launched a new edition of my book “Naked Trader” – edition 6. It’s been five years since the last edition and I thought I would answer a question many have asked: “What have you learned over the last 5 years from talking to investors?”. Here are 6 things I’ve learned. 1. I learned […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 10/12/2024 | BAR, EAH, VNET | The Capex Surge

A look at the capex boom from Artificial Intelligence and data centres, and who the winner(s) might be. Companies covered: W7L’s bid for BAR, EAH and VNET.   The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 8,328. The Nasdaq100 was much stronger +3.3%, while the S&P was up around +1% over the last 5 trading days. […]

Probably the most profitable manufacturer in the UK

Gram for gram Bioventix must be one of the most profitable manufacturers in the UK. Richard also looks at Dotdigital. It too has an unblemished financial history. Since my last update in mid-November, six companies have passed my minimum quality filter, and four of them have achieved less than three strikes. These companies have achieved […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Global Equity Indices, ETF for all seasons, Scottish Mortgage

Global stock market indices are widely used benchmarks and also form the core of a huge and growing range of exchange-traded funds. But what are the differences between these various indices? Taking that idea of global equities in one fund, Wisdom Tree has just issued what I think is a cracking one-fund solution, an ETF […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 26/11/2024 | NESF, TAM, TRU, MTEC | Natural Gas on the rise again

A look at whether rising Natural Gas prices might threaten the market rally, and whether renewables might help offset the pain. Companies mentioned NESF, TAM, TRU and MTEC. The FTSE 100 was up +2.3% last week to 8,294, helped by a weak pound. The pound has fallen -6% from 1.34 against the dollar to 1.26 […]

The Trader: Jaguar’s Rebrand and Games Workshop

You’ve probably seen Jaguar’s new rebrand, which looks similar to a cosmetic or a fashion ad, without any mention of cars, and some vague slogans which mean little to anyone. Marketers worldwide have crowed about how “Jaguar has destroyed its brand” and that this is financial suicide. Maybe. But they missed the point. Jaguar barely […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 12/11/2024 | ZTF, TCAP, SFOR, AQX | Public stockmarkets and Private Equity

A look at how different asset classes have responded to the US election result, and whether there might be some inconsistent thinking therein.  Companies covered: ZTF, TCAP and SFOR, plus a brief look at the AQX bid approach.   The FTSE 100 was down around -0.5% last week to 8,125. In the US, the Nasdaq100 […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Wynnstay | WYN

Wynnstay has paid an increased dividend every year since 2004 yet its shares trade nearly 40% below net tangible assets. Maynard Paton weighs up whether the agricultural supplier is a value bargain or a value trap. I am back again looking for ‘value bargains’ and revisiting a screen that identifies companies trading at less than […]

Volution|FAN: Making money from clean air

Richard presents the latest companies to make it through his 5 Strikes process. Volution, a manufacturer of extractor fans and more sophisticated ventilation systems achieved only one strike, making it a prime candidate for research. Since my last update, five companies have published annual reports and passed my minimum quality filter. Having briefly scrutinised their […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Trusts Sector, CLO Funds, Charteris Funds, Equal Weight ETFs

In this month’s Funds Focus, David Stevenson looks at a recent report on the consolidation of investment trusts which has some quite revealing headline numbers. Plus he casts his eye over CLO & Charteris Funds and Equal Weight ETFs. We also ask whether it’s time to switch out of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track […]

Are Crest Nicholson shares way too cheap or a big value trap?

After rival house builder Bellway decided not to buy Crest Nicholson, Phil asks whether the shares have been treated too harshly by the market or if investors should stay clear of them. Source: Crest Nicholson It’s been a rough few years for house-building companies. COVID-19 badly disrupted their businesses while government subsidies and low borrowing […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 29/10/2024 | GBG, CER, PCIP | Moving the long end of the curve

A look at the movements at the long end of the government bond yield curve, and the implications for equity investors. Companies covered GBG, CER and PCIP. The FTSE 100 was down -1% last week to 8,223. The Nasdaq100 was flat, while the S&P500 was down -1%. The price of palladium was up +9% last […]

“M” is for marmite, and market leader

Investing in UK market-leading companies is a marmite proposition. They must have done something good but, if they are already so big, how can they keep taking market share? Richard examines market leaders Dunelm, and Inchcape (again!) In this week’s update, only two companies published annual reports, passed my minimum quality filter and the 5 […]

Is it worth investing in quality factor ETFs?

Phil takes a look at the subject of factor investing and whether quality factor exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can deliver better returns than those that track the stock market. Factor investing 101 To some extent, most investing is based around factors. Factors are used to deliver sources of return from portfolios and to explain the performance […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 15/10/2024 | CAV, WYN, TET | Small cap AXX divergence

A look at what might be causing the divergence in performance between the FTSE Small Cap (SMX) index -8%, which has outperformed FTSE AIM (AXX) -44% since Sept 2021. Companies covered CAV, WYN and TET. The FTSE 100 was down -0.75% to 8,244 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up just over +1%. […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Software Circle

Canadian 200-bagger Constellation Software has inspired Software Circle to become a serial acquirer of ‘vertical market’ software businesses. Maynard Paton studies the promising early progress of AIM-traded emulator. Mark Leonard has been described as the “best capital allocator you have never heard of“. According to Forbes, Mr Leonard is now worth $5 billion after he […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Gold, Fair Oaks, Compounding ETF

In this month’s funds overview, we revisit the exciting world of gold and especially gold trackers which provide a regular income via options writing strategies. We also look at a very adventurous way of generating a big regular income, all through a well-established and successful investment trust. We also quickly glance at a new exchange-traded […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 1/10/2024 | IPO, OMG, ABDP | Stimulus from the East, M4 from the West

A look at stimulus coming from the People’s Bank of China and deficit spending by Western governments, both of which seem expansionary. Companies covered:  IPO, OMG and ABDP.  The FTSE 100 was flat last week, bouncing around 8,270. In the USA, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than +1%. China on the other […]

Focus, focus, focus

There is very little 5 Strikes action, so Richard takes the opportunity to slide Inchcape onto the front burner. Over the last eight years, the company has sharpened its focus on motor vehicle distribution. Deciding what to focus on is the basis of good strategy. Since my last article only two shares have published annual […]

Should you consider buying the shares that professional investors hate?

Many investors like to buy shares that are popular or those of companies that are doing well. Phil takes a look at why sometimes buying shares that professional investors are betting against can generate big gains. Finding unpopular shares Most investors make money by buying shares that eventually go up in price. However, it is […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Castings PLC (LSE: CGS)

A liking for ‘value bargains’ prompts Maynard Paton to search again for asset-rich shares with depressed ratings. Screening for low price to books and net cash positions leads to engineer Castings. I always love a traditional ‘value bargain’. Hence this revisit to an old screen that pinpoints companies trading at less than book value. Importantly, […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 17/09/2024 |WOSG, HVO, FEVR| Dr Copper calls it once again

Bruce looks at the reversal in the copper price, and what this might signal about global growth and interest rate expectations.  Companies covered WOSG, HVO and FEVR. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 8,273. US markets were much stronger, with the Nasdaq100 up +6.% and the S&P500 up +4%. That seems to be driven by […]

Is the Permanent Portfolio still a sensible investment strategy?

The conventional wisdom that stocks deliver the best returns for investors is generally true, but only if you can ignore the wild ups and downs that come with them and stay invested. Phil looks at whether a popular and lower-risk approach to investing is worth considering at the moment. Shares deliver the best returns if […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 3/09/2024 | CLX, AQX, ESYS | A look at UK fund flows

A look at UK retail fund flow data, from the Investment Association, which represents UK Fund Management Firms. Companies covered CLX, AQX and ESYS. The FTSE 100 was up +0.5% to 8,369 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -0.7% and the S&P500 was flat. Both of these US indices are up +25% YTD, whereas AIM […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Gold, Nutshell growth, Biotech opportunities

Gold prices are moving steadily higher, yet most investors shun the shiny precious stuff. This month’s funds article looks at gold as an asset class, why professionals dislike it, and why UK investors have done well out of the precious metal. It also examines an innovative new way to invest in gold AND generate an […]

Finding fault

Richard examines fault after fault in businesses until he can find no more. If the faults should not cause permanent damage, the share is an investment candidate. Currently, Kainos is in the spotlight and Iomart and IG enter the pipeline. I am compiling a list of all the companies with a few flaws in their […]

On Durability

This week, Jamie Ward rewatched an old interview with an investor whose style might be considered rogue in today’s professional investment landscape. He believes that the lessons espoused could be useful for private investors who consider whatever wealth they have accumulated to be precious and irreplaceable. He then suggests a few businesses that might form […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 20/08/2024 | BUR, CGEO, GHH | Headed for the ‘Cisco Bay?

A look at Nvidia, which is forecast to grow sales by 11x since 2020, compared to Cisco Systems valuation in the previous technology bubble. Companies covered BUR, CGEO and GHH. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 8,294 last week. The Nasdaq 100 has recovered strongly from its wobble earlier in August, and was up +5.4% […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Lindsell Train Investment Trust

The market has become very unhappy with buy-and-hold investor Nick Train. Maynard Paton studies Lindsell Train Investment Trust and reckons Mr Train’s fund-management business could now be valued on a P/E of less than 2. Could now be the time to back Nick Train? The buy-and-hold fund manager was for years feted for selecting blue-chip […]

Summer sizzlers

The latest haul of investment candidates from Richard includes a software company, a timber importer, a one-of-a-kind fantasy gaming and modelling company Games Workshop, a housebuilder and a business so small you may never have heard of it. Just to recap and contextualise, 5 Strikes is a quick way of deciding which shares are the […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 06/08/2024 | DATA, LTG, CRPR | Hitting some turbulence

A difficult start to August seems to be driven by the Japanese carry-trade unwinding. Companies covered: DATA, LTG, CRPR. Markets sold off heavily on Monday. The FTSE 100 fell -3.6% in the last 5 days to 7,974. Meanwhile, the futures market suggested that US markets would start the week badly. The FT contained an article […]

LULU is no lemon!

Richard’s 5 Strikes system puts three very different businesses in the frame: Athleisure brand Lululemon, Gamma Communications – an IT company that supplies communications systems, and MS International, which manufactures naval cannon. Bingo! Well, almost Bingo. In my last article, I promised to order the results of my 5 Strikes system by number of strikes […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Bull market alert, Hedging risk, Biotech Opportunities and UK Smaller caps

With markets, the US ones in particular, in a bullish mood over the summer months, and volatility still well below long-term averages (even after the recent tech sell-off), our monthly look at funds continues its search for ideas that could hedge downside risk, focusing this time on managed futures funds. On a more optimistic note, […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: RWS

RWS has lifted its dividend for 19 consecutive years yet the shares currently offer a 6.5% yield. Maynard Paton studies the translation group’s acquisition history, profit adjustments and management changes. An illustrious dividend history and a worthwhile yield have brought RWS to my attention. The language-translation group presently offers: An unbroken record of dividend increases […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 23/07/2024 | TRST, RNO, CRL | Ghost in the Machine

Some background reading on cybersecurity and hacking, topical in the wake of Crowdstrike-related chaos from last week. Companies covered TRST, RNO and CRL. The FTSE 100 rose +0.5% to 8,216 last week. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -4% and -2% respectively. For contrast, the Russell 2000 small cap index jumped +7%, encouraged by helpful inflation […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 09/07/2024 | MOON, DUKE, EQLS| Reasons to be cheerful

After a difficult 3 years for London-listed smaller companies, Bruce looks at a couple of reasons to feel positive about the future. Companies covered: MOON, DUKE, EQLS. The FTSE 100 was up less than +0.5% last week to 8,194. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +3% and 1.6% respectively. China remains in the doldrums with […]

Elephants can gallop

The latest haul of 5 strikes shares includes Halma and RS, proof perhaps that big companies can gallop, or at least trot. Richard also doffs his cap to Bloomsbury Publishing and works out how profitable Next 15 really is. We’re in a low period for annual report publishing as the large number of companies that […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Leftfield ideas for a strange market, Defence funds

With global stock markets in bullish form and the all-important US benchmark, the S&P 500, threatening to crash past the psychologically important 5500 level, our monthly fund’s report spins through some left-field ideas for bears and bulls from the world of ETFs and investment trusts. We look at everything from strategies that benefit from sudden […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 25/06/2024 | WISE, YOU, IGP | Approvals rising

A look at mortgage approvals data trends, and how the Election may impact the UK housing market. Companies covered WISE, YOU and IGP. The FTSE 100 rose +1.7% last week to 8,274. The Nasdaq100 and the S&P500 were both up +0.6%. The US 10Y Govt bond yield fell back to 4.25% and yield curves remain […]

PETS hits a home run

The standout share from Richard’s latest 5 Strikes haul is Pets at Home, a dominant pet care business in the UK with a strong financial track record. Fifteen companies have passed the Minimum Quality Filter since my last update, but the finances of only three score less than three strikes, according to the 5 strikes […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Colefax

Obscure small-cap Colefax has repurchased 75% of its share count since 1999. Maynard Paton weighs up the fabric designer’s impressive buyback record and cash-rich financials versus its modest growth history and awkward corporate governance. The email I received was intriguing: “The numbers speak for themselves. The company has repurchased 75% of shares outstanding since 1999, […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 11/06/2024 | BGEO, RFX, AGFX | Things we lost in the fire (sale)

A look at the decline of the London Stock Exchange, versus the remarkable performance of the LSEG share price. Companies covered: BGEO, RFX, AGFX The FTSE 100 fell -0.8% in the last 5 days to 8,203. The Nasdaq100 was up +2.5% and the S&P500 +1.3%. The Nasdaq is the second-best performing major index +13 YTD, […]

The Trader: The Power of Breakouts in Bull Markets

Michael breaks down the breakout including why and how to play this trading pattern. For those who have followed my articles then it’ll come as no surprise that I love trading breakouts. Why? Simply put: trading breakouts is a powerful strategy for capturing significant price movements in stocks. When a stock’s price moves above a […]

The devil is in the data

Richard’s 5 Strikes systems discover four more potential long-term investments, but he doesn’t investigate any of them. Instead, he’s drawn to B-Corp aspirant and gaggle of consultancies Next 15. It has only two strikes to tarnish its name. Since the last 5 Strikes update, my 5 Strikes system has discovered four more candidates for long-term […]

Monthly Fund Focus: What the future holds for UK & UK Funds, a look at SEIT and the price of Gold.

Our monthly funds roundup looks at why prospects for the UK economy and funds investing in our local markets might be looking up, the general election notwithstanding. We also repeat the bull case for gold and look at a model that suggests that gold could push closer to $2750 an ounce in an optimistic scenario. […]

Hargreaves Lansdown’s bid talk highlights value in unloved companies

Phil looks at the recent bid interest in Hargreaves Lansdown and suggests that more bids for unloved companies could be on the way. From loved to laggard Many investors like to own shares in companies that are doing well and where the share price is heading upwards. This is perfectly understandable as this situation provides […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 28/05/2024 | KLR, FUTR, AVAP | Natural Gas and Hot Air Rising

With the recent +67% spike in Natural Gas prices, Bruce wonders if Central Banks might have declared victory over inflation too soon. Companies covered: KLR, FUTR and AVAP. The FTSE 100 was down -1.2% to 8,317 in the last 5 days. The Prime Minister called an election and there will be lots of hot air […]

The Trader: How to increase your strike rate by staggering your stops

In this article, Michael Taylor looks at a way to increase your trading strike rate by varying stop losses. What if there was an easy way to increase your strike rate? Managing risk is paramount in the volatile world of trading. You’ll have heard of Mark Minervini talk about ‘batting average’. This is your strike […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Victoria

Poor record-keeping at a small subsidiary prompted an adverse audit at Victoria last year. Maynard Paton looks at other areas of the carpet manufacturer’s accounts in which the auditor identified ‘material errors’. Oh dear. Today I am writing about Victoria, a £228 million carpet manufacturer that last year attracted attention following an adverse audit. When […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 14/05/2024 | AGFX, JDW, ULTP | Professional button pushers

Nvidia’s share price has risen by 8x in the last 18 months, yet it is not obvious which businesses their GPUs will disrupt.  Stocks covered AGFX, JDW and ULTP. The FTSE 100 rose +2.5% to 8,420 and continues to hit all-time highs. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.5% and +1.8% respectively. Oil was down […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 30/04/2024 | JET2, FTC, DARK | Accountability sinks

This week Bruce looks at long-term multi-bagger Jet2, up around 120x from its 2008 low, and Filtronic, which has announced a contract win with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Plus another bid from US Private Equity, this time for cybersecurity firm Darktrace. The FTSE 100 rose +1.9% to 8,175 last week. The US markets performed even better, […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Hipgnosi, Private Equity and ArkInvest lands in UK

Our regular monthly funds column looks at the bidding battle at music royalties fund Hipgnosis, the new ETF platform from Cathie Woods Ark Invest for UK investors, a new rare earth equities tracker, and the potential for a rebound in the listed private equity funds space. Plus, a think tank takes aim at ISAs. Hipgnosis […]

Nichols: As sweet as grape, blackberry and raspberry again

If ever there was a company that demonstrated complexity can be bad for business, it’s Nichols. When diversified, profitability crumbles. When it sticks to marketing soft drinks it prospers. Guess what it is doing now?  The one thing you will not read much about in this article is Vimto. Vimto is a soft drink and […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 23/04/2024 | DOCS, AML | A Clairvoyant’s View of the Economy

This week Jamie returns to a topic mentioned late last year; the use of Google Trends to get a sense of how sections of the economy are performing. He then discusses what, if any, investment ideas can be narrowed down. He then reviews the travails of two ex-private equity businesses with similar names. One he […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 16/04/2024 | SDY, NXR | As Safe as Houses

This week Jamie talks about the economics of the UK housing market and why he thinks that the house builders’ apparent cheapness is an illusion. He then discusses what he believes are better ways to invest in housing construction and rounds off by reviewing the trading updates of two companies, whose fortune is somewhat determined […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Yü Group

Yü Group has delivered wonderful multi-bagger returns during the last few years. Maynard Paton recaps the energy supplier’s entrepreneurial leadership and remarkable recovery following an accounting bombshell. Everybody loves shares that keep on rising. SharePad lists 37 names that have consistently delivered 15% or more annualised returns during the last one, three and five years: […]

Homing in on quality

Richard tightens up his “Minimum Quality” filter so that SharePad is doing more of the heavy lifting. In a not-very-scientific test, 18 out of 21 good-quality businesses were identified by it. Last month I shared a list of all the companies that passed my semi-automated sifting of the entire stockmarket over the course of the […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 09/04/2024 | ARR, FDEV, FUTR | Rising from the Ashes

This week Jamie talks about the remuneration of investment companies, reveals one of his personal investment trust holdings and explains his rationale. He then reviews the current state of Frontier Developments, which has gone from micro-cap to super-star mid-cap and back again in the past few years. Finally, he provides a brief review of the […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 02/04/2024 | ZOO, KETL, TMG | Challenging Goliath

A look at a possible reason for the outperformance of large-cap US technology stocks, and what might reverse the trend in favour of smaller companies. Stocks covered: ZOO, KETL, TMG. The FTSE 100 was up +0.9% last week to 7,952. Nasdaq100 was down -0.3% while the S&P500 was up by a similar amount. China resumed […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Gold ETFs & Funds, private equity and a Georgia update

The gold price has been perking up in recent weeks – is now the time to be looking at the wide array of gold-based funds, especially in this era of monetary inflation powered by big government? This month David also looks at whether the private equity market is improving, plus he shines the spotlight again […]

Show me the MONY

Richard unearths five good-quality businesses that have recently published annual reports. Top of the list are InterContinental Hotels (IHG), and MoneySupermarket (MONY)… Joyfully, I am away on holiday but my holiday is mistimed in one respect. The post-Christmas lull in annual report publishing has come to an end. A large number of companies with financial […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 26/03/2024 | CEY, CBG, ANP | A couple of important break-outs

A look at two charts that suggest reasons for growing optimism, even as the UK performance has lagged other markets. Companies covered CEY, CBG and ANP. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% last week to 7,869. The Nasdaq100 was also strong up +3% and the S&P500 up +2.3%. China and Japan enjoyed contrasting fortunes last […]

How do YOU ShareScope?

In the latest in the series, we have a very experienced investor who you can find on YouTube and the-social-media-channel-formerly-known-as-Twitter – Ramin Nakisa AKA PensionCraft sharing a bit about his investing history and how he uses ShareScope. As we all know, there is a lot of functionality in ShareScope and there are many different ways […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Rockwood Strategic

Rockwood Strategic is buying underperforming small-caps, revitalising their boards and pushing for takeovers. Maynard Paton reviews the investment trust’s ‘activist approach, portfolio performance and current holdings. Rockwood Strategic could be the ideal choice for anyone wishing to capitalise on the sorry state of UK small-caps. A check of your own portfolio may support Rockwood’s belief […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/03/2024 | HAT, CAPD, BGEO | As good as gold?

A look at the performance of gold, and some dividend yield paying shares which should also benefit from the rising gold price.  Companies covered: HAT, CAPD and BGEO.    The FTSE 100 was up +1% to 7,749 last week. Meanwhile, Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -1.2% and -0.2% respectively. The FTSE China 50 has now […]

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