Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 23/07/2024 | TRST, RNO, CRL | Ghost in the Machine

Some background reading on cybersecurity and hacking, topical in the wake of Crowdstrike-related chaos from last week. Companies covered TRST, RNO and CRL. The FTSE 100 rose +0.5% to 8,216 last week. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -4% and -2% respectively. For contrast, the Russell 2000 small cap index jumped +7%, encouraged by helpful inflation […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 09/07/2024 | MOON, DUKE, EQLS| Reasons to be cheerful

After a difficult 3 years for London-listed smaller companies, Bruce looks at a couple of reasons to feel positive about the future. Companies covered: MOON, DUKE, EQLS. The FTSE 100 was up less than +0.5% last week to 8,194. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +3% and 1.6% respectively. China remains in the doldrums with […]

Elephants can gallop

The latest haul of 5 strikes shares includes Halma and RS, proof perhaps that big companies can gallop, or at least trot. Richard also doffs his cap to Bloomsbury Publishing and works out how profitable Next 15 really is. We’re in a low period for annual report publishing as the large number of companies that […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Leftfield ideas for a strange market, Defence funds

With global stock markets in bullish form and the all-important US benchmark, the S&P 500, threatening to crash past the psychologically important 5500 level, our monthly fund’s report spins through some left-field ideas for bears and bulls from the world of ETFs and investment trusts. We look at everything from strategies that benefit from sudden […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 25/06/2024 | WISE, YOU, IGP | Approvals rising

A look at mortgage approvals data trends, and how the Election may impact the UK housing market. Companies covered WISE, YOU and IGP. The FTSE 100 rose +1.7% last week to 8,274. The Nasdaq100 and the S&P500 were both up +0.6%. The US 10Y Govt bond yield fell back to 4.25% and yield curves remain […]

PETS hits a home run

The standout share from Richard’s latest 5 Strikes haul is Pets at Home, a dominant pet care business in the UK with a strong financial track record. Fifteen companies have passed the Minimum Quality Filter since my last update, but the finances of only three score less than three strikes, according to the 5 strikes […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Colefax

Obscure small-cap Colefax has repurchased 75% of its share count since 1999. Maynard Paton weighs up the fabric designer’s impressive buyback record and cash-rich financials versus its modest growth history and awkward corporate governance. The email I received was intriguing: “The numbers speak for themselves. The company has repurchased 75% of shares outstanding since 1999, […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 11/06/2024 | BGEO, RFX, AGFX | Things we lost in the fire (sale)

A look at the decline of the London Stock Exchange, versus the remarkable performance of the LSEG share price. Companies covered: BGEO, RFX, AGFX The FTSE 100 fell -0.8% in the last 5 days to 8,203. The Nasdaq100 was up +2.5% and the S&P500 +1.3%. The Nasdaq is the second-best performing major index +13 YTD, […]

The Trader: The Power of Breakouts in Bull Markets

Michael breaks down the breakout including why and how to play this trading pattern. For those who have followed my articles then it’ll come as no surprise that I love trading breakouts. Why? Simply put: trading breakouts is a powerful strategy for capturing significant price movements in stocks. When a stock’s price moves above a […]

The devil is in the data

Richard’s 5 Strikes systems discover four more potential long-term investments, but he doesn’t investigate any of them. Instead, he’s drawn to B-Corp aspirant and gaggle of consultancies Next 15. It has only two strikes to tarnish its name. Since the last 5 Strikes update, my 5 Strikes system has discovered four more candidates for long-term […]

Monthly Fund Focus: What the future holds for UK & UK Funds, a look at SEIT and the price of Gold.

Our monthly funds roundup looks at why prospects for the UK economy and funds investing in our local markets might be looking up, the general election notwithstanding. We also repeat the bull case for gold and look at a model that suggests that gold could push closer to $2750 an ounce in an optimistic scenario. […]

Hargreaves Lansdown’s bid talk highlights value in unloved companies

Phil looks at the recent bid interest in Hargreaves Lansdown and suggests that more bids for unloved companies could be on the way. From loved to laggard Many investors like to own shares in companies that are doing well and where the share price is heading upwards. This is perfectly understandable as this situation provides […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 28/05/2024 | KLR, FUTR, AVAP | Natural Gas and Hot Air Rising

With the recent +67% spike in Natural Gas prices, Bruce wonders if Central Banks might have declared victory over inflation too soon. Companies covered: KLR, FUTR and AVAP. The FTSE 100 was down -1.2% to 8,317 in the last 5 days. The Prime Minister called an election and there will be lots of hot air […]

The Trader: How to increase your strike rate by staggering your stops

In this article, Michael Taylor looks at a way to increase your trading strike rate by varying stop losses. What if there was an easy way to increase your strike rate? Managing risk is paramount in the volatile world of trading. You’ll have heard of Mark Minervini talk about ‘batting average’. This is your strike […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Victoria

Poor record-keeping at a small subsidiary prompted an adverse audit at Victoria last year. Maynard Paton looks at other areas of the carpet manufacturer’s accounts in which the auditor identified ‘material errors’. Oh dear. Today I am writing about Victoria, a £228 million carpet manufacturer that last year attracted attention following an adverse audit. When […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary | 14/05/2024 | AGFX, JDW, ULTP | Professional button pushers

Nvidia’s share price has risen by 8x in the last 18 months, yet it is not obvious which businesses their GPUs will disrupt.  Stocks covered AGFX, JDW and ULTP. The FTSE 100 rose +2.5% to 8,420 and continues to hit all-time highs. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.5% and +1.8% respectively. Oil was down […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 30/04/2024 | JET2, FTC, DARK | Accountability sinks

This week Bruce looks at long-term multi-bagger Jet2, up around 120x from its 2008 low, and Filtronic, which has announced a contract win with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Plus another bid from US Private Equity, this time for cybersecurity firm Darktrace. The FTSE 100 rose +1.9% to 8,175 last week. The US markets performed even better, […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Hipgnosi, Private Equity and ArkInvest lands in UK

Our regular monthly funds column looks at the bidding battle at music royalties fund Hipgnosis, the new ETF platform from Cathie Woods Ark Invest for UK investors, a new rare earth equities tracker, and the potential for a rebound in the listed private equity funds space. Plus, a think tank takes aim at ISAs. Hipgnosis […]

Nichols: As sweet as grape, blackberry and raspberry again

If ever there was a company that demonstrated complexity can be bad for business, it’s Nichols. When diversified, profitability crumbles. When it sticks to marketing soft drinks it prospers. Guess what it is doing now?  The one thing you will not read much about in this article is Vimto. Vimto is a soft drink and […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 23/04/2024 | DOCS, AML | A Clairvoyant’s View of the Economy

This week Jamie returns to a topic mentioned late last year; the use of Google Trends to get a sense of how sections of the economy are performing. He then discusses what, if any, investment ideas can be narrowed down. He then reviews the travails of two ex-private equity businesses with similar names. One he […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 16/04/2024 | SDY, NXR | As Safe as Houses

This week Jamie talks about the economics of the UK housing market and why he thinks that the house builders’ apparent cheapness is an illusion. He then discusses what he believes are better ways to invest in housing construction and rounds off by reviewing the trading updates of two companies, whose fortune is somewhat determined […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Yü Group

Yü Group has delivered wonderful multi-bagger returns during the last few years. Maynard Paton recaps the energy supplier’s entrepreneurial leadership and remarkable recovery following an accounting bombshell. Everybody loves shares that keep on rising. SharePad lists 37 names that have consistently delivered 15% or more annualised returns during the last one, three and five years: […]

Homing in on quality

Richard tightens up his “Minimum Quality” filter so that SharePad is doing more of the heavy lifting. In a not-very-scientific test, 18 out of 21 good-quality businesses were identified by it. Last month I shared a list of all the companies that passed my semi-automated sifting of the entire stockmarket over the course of the […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 09/04/2024 | ARR, FDEV, FUTR | Rising from the Ashes

This week Jamie talks about the remuneration of investment companies, reveals one of his personal investment trust holdings and explains his rationale. He then reviews the current state of Frontier Developments, which has gone from micro-cap to super-star mid-cap and back again in the past few years. Finally, he provides a brief review of the […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 02/04/2024 | ZOO, KETL, TMG | Challenging Goliath

A look at a possible reason for the outperformance of large-cap US technology stocks, and what might reverse the trend in favour of smaller companies. Stocks covered: ZOO, KETL, TMG. The FTSE 100 was up +0.9% last week to 7,952. Nasdaq100 was down -0.3% while the S&P500 was up by a similar amount. China resumed […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Gold ETFs & Funds, private equity and a Georgia update

The gold price has been perking up in recent weeks – is now the time to be looking at the wide array of gold-based funds, especially in this era of monetary inflation powered by big government? This month David also looks at whether the private equity market is improving, plus he shines the spotlight again […]

Show me the MONY

Richard unearths five good-quality businesses that have recently published annual reports. Top of the list are InterContinental Hotels (IHG), and MoneySupermarket (MONY)… Joyfully, I am away on holiday but my holiday is mistimed in one respect. The post-Christmas lull in annual report publishing has come to an end. A large number of companies with financial […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 26/03/2024 | CEY, CBG, ANP | A couple of important break-outs

A look at two charts that suggest reasons for growing optimism, even as the UK performance has lagged other markets. Companies covered CEY, CBG and ANP. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% last week to 7,869. The Nasdaq100 was also strong up +3% and the S&P500 up +2.3%. China and Japan enjoyed contrasting fortunes last […]

How do YOU ShareScope?

In the latest in the series, we have a very experienced investor who you can find on YouTube and the-social-media-channel-formerly-known-as-Twitter – Ramin Nakisa AKA PensionCraft sharing a bit about his investing history and how he uses ShareScope. As we all know, there is a lot of functionality in ShareScope and there are many different ways […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Rockwood Strategic

Rockwood Strategic is buying underperforming small-caps, revitalising their boards and pushing for takeovers. Maynard Paton reviews the investment trust’s ‘activist approach, portfolio performance and current holdings. Rockwood Strategic could be the ideal choice for anyone wishing to capitalise on the sorry state of UK small-caps. A check of your own portfolio may support Rockwood’s belief […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/03/2024 | HAT, CAPD, BGEO | As good as gold?

A look at the performance of gold, and some dividend yield paying shares which should also benefit from the rising gold price.  Companies covered: HAT, CAPD and BGEO.    The FTSE 100 was up +1% to 7,749 last week. Meanwhile, Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -1.2% and -0.2% respectively. The FTSE China 50 has now […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 12/03/2024 | BKS, FCH, NEXN | A good thing that the world doesn’t run on chocolate

A look at how commodity prices have performed since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Companies covered: BKS, FCH and NEXN. The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 7,629, as were the S&P500 and the FTSE China 50. The Nasdaq100 was down -1.5%. Bitcoin rose +9% to within touching distance of $70K and gold was up […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 05/03/2024 | ENSI, ADF, RMV | AIM cross-over approaching?

A trend following signal for AIM is close to turning positive, so we could see confidence return in smaller UK stocks.  Companies covered: ENSI, ADF and RMV. The FTSE 100 was down -0.4% to 7,659 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +2.0 and +1.0% respectively. In the US the bull market continues, with […]

Monthly Fund Focus: 52-Week Discount List, Junior Miners ETF, Japanese Funds, D9

This month we track down the listed investment funds which are still trading near their 52-week discount peaks and take a closer look at the worst offender in this category – the Digital 9 Infrastructure trust which is on the receiving end of yet more bad news. Not all big discount funds are worth the […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Property Franchise

Property Franchise has consistently exhibited attractive financials and will soon combine with rival Belvoir. Maynard Paton delves into the small-cap’s balance sheet, acquisitive history, franchising KPIs and merger prospects. Today I am studying Property Franchise, an estate-agency franchising business that appeared on my radar after I reviewed fellow estate-agency franchisor Belvoir last year. To recap, […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 27/02/2024 | BARC, HL., LOK, ARC | Where are all the shareholders’ yachts?

Bruce looks at an old equity research note from 1993 and ponders if in some sectors customers receive a better deal than shareholders. Companies covered BARC, HL., LOK, ARC The FTSE 100 fell -0.6% last week to 7,683. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +0.5% and +1.7% respectively. The excitement was provided by Nvidia results, […]

Is it time to ditch ROCE as a measure of company performance?

Phil looks at the issues with one of the most important ratios in investing and argues the case for a cleaner and more realistic alternative. Return on investment or return on capital employed (ROCE) as it is commonly referred to is seen as one of the best measures of a company’s financial performance. It is […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 20/02/2024 | GNS, ANIC | Yo Adrian, I did it

This week, Jamie discusses a solution to using return on capital employed when the capital employed part of the equation is missing. He does so through the lens of ARM Holdings, which became the third-largest UK company by market capitalisation last week. You have to feel somewhat for whoever compiled and proofread the trading update […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 13/02/2024 | RSW, DCC, BDEV | Rent vs. Own

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This week, Jamie talks about two types of equity investment those which should be held with the intention of an indefinite horizon and those that are expected to be sold. He then compares three companies, two of which he thinks should be long term holds and the other one only to be traded. The commentary […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 06/02/2024 | SDY, SDRY | Where there’s muck there’s brass

Jamie Ward takes over this week’s Weekly Market Commentary. Companies covered: SDY & SDRY. After a prolonged period of unpredictable economic data, most of the big releases last week were either in line with expectations or slightly better. Most of it wasn’t good in an absolute sense but taken as a snapshot, last week’s figures […]

Eight Common Investing Mistakes Made by Private Investors

“Investing success is two-thirds avoiding mistakes, one-third doing something right.”- Ken Fisher Private investing offers the opportunity for individuals to take control of their finances and even achieve financial freedom. However, without proper knowledge and preparation, private investors can unknowingly make mistakes that hinder their portfolio investment returns. Of course, because we are human, it […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 30/01/2024 | FEVR, ELCO, FNX, BOKU | Gogi’s barometer

Bruce remembers a metaphor from the founder of the Georgian Stock Exchange and wonders how it might apply to Chinese financial markets. Companies covered: FEVR, ELCO, FNX, BOKU. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% to 7653 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.4% and 1.1%. Brent Crude was up +4% in the last 5 […]

Monthly Fund Focus: Asset Class Idea, UK PLC Review, Leveraged Shares and Tech

In this month’s focus on funds, we take a quick look at asset class returns in 2023 courtesy of some wonderful heatmaps, we eavesdrop on a recent bank event at the state of UK PLC, and we examine an under-owned asset class that could be the verge of big things – local currency emerging markets […]

Small-Cap Spotlight Report: Sosandar (LSE: SOS)

Fashion website Sosandar plans to open shops to bolster its sales and margins. Maynard Paton weighs up management’s bold financial ambition against the wider sector’s haphazard progress. Fashion website Sosandar provides a fascinating dilemma for small-cap growth investors. Bulls will highlight the online retailer’s very rapid expansion and bold ambition to raise profits to £10 […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 23/01/2024 | DPP, NXQ, CRPR | Following the fund flows

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While active fund managers are seeing redemptions, platforms like AJB and IHP have been reporting healthy quarterly inflows.  Other stocks covered DPP, NXQ, CRPR. The FTSE 100 fell -1.7% last week to 7,466. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.9% and 1.25% respectively. US markets are enjoying a reasonably strong start to the year, and are […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 16/01/2024 | JUP, ASHM, IPX, POLR, PMI | Terry Smith and other historians

Terry Smith has published his annual performance update letter, plus a look at companies in the listed active fund manager sector. Companies covered JUP, ASHM, IPX, POLR, PMI.   The FTSE 100 fell -1% to 7613 last week. The Nasdaq100 was up +3.2% and the S&P was up +1.8% in the last five trading days. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 09/01/2024 | JD., CMCX | How the yield curve got it wrong

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Bruce looks at why the inverted yield curve seems to have sent a false signal about a recession.  Companies covered: JD. and CMCX.   The FTSE 100 fell -0.9% to 7,658 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -3.5% and the S&P500 was down -1.8%. The FTSE China 50 was the worst performing index, down -4.7% […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 03/01/2024 | AVAP | What’s in store for 2024?

Bruce reviews 2023 performance and the outlook for this year. Plus a detailed write-up of aircraft leasing business AVAP.   Last year the Nasdaq 100 was the best-performing major index, up +54%, followed by Japan’s Nikkei. Not something that many people would have predicted. The S&P500 also did well +24% last year, followed by the […]

My SharePad system

Having used the 5 Strikes system for nine months, Richard has decided it is a keeper. Commenting on the latest investment candidates to achieve less than 3 strikes, he explains what he was thinking while he was separating the wheat from the chaff. Happy New Year! At the turn of every year, I review my […]

Christmas Commentary | 29/12/23 | DWHT/DWHA | Google is your friend | Screening for Bargains

This week, Jamie Ward briefly talks about the latest update from Dewhurst. He then demonstrates that markets are frequently not efficient by reviewing the performance of a couple of the COVID winners to see if it can inform future investment decisions. Finally, he shows how to use Sharepad to screen for businesses that attempt to […]

Monthly Funds focus: Wisdom Tree, L&G ETFs, Global X, Baker Steel Resources Trust

2023 was the year of AI and we end the year with a deep dive into the handful of AI-specific exchange-traded funds or ETFs listed on the London exchange. They all provide real diversification benefits but have lagged big well-known individual stocks such as Nvidia and Microsoft. We also have a deep dive into a […]

Riding the Lithium Rollercoaster: Navigating the Peaks and Troughs of the EV Revolution

As a seasoned observer and participant in the lithium market, I’ve navigated through its ebbs and flows with a blend of caution and opportunism. My investment strategy, focused on a basket of pre-commercial lithium juniors, was crafted with a long-term vision, fully aware of the turbulent waters of this sector, warned readers, for which I […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/12/2023 | AJB, HL., CHRT, MSI | Central Banks turn dovish

With Central Banks turning dovish, Bruce looks for the 16 / 64 day moving average crossover to call the turn to a more bullish market in 2024. Stocks covered investment platforms AJB, HL. plus defence stocks CHRT and MSI. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 7617 last week. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up […]

Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Lok’nStore (LSE: LOK)

A search for ‘owner managers’ leads Maynard Paton to the impressive dividend record of Lok’nStore and the ‘extremely stable’ nature of self storage. I love ‘owner managers’ — company bosses with significant shareholdings who want to build wealth for the long haul. Such leaders do seem to act differently to standard chief executives. A hefty […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 12/12/2023 | CML, SOLI, SDI | Instability from property?

Bruce looks at the prospects for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and wonders if this will become a source of market instability in 2024. Companies covered CML, SOLI, and SDI. The FTSE 100 was flat last week, hovering around the 7,500 mark. In the US, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than half a […]

Six new stock ideas

Six shares have passed the first stage of Richard’s 5 Strikes process. Many of them are destined for the “too hard pile”, perhaps the most underrated element in an investor’s toolkit. Here is an update on the latest companies to have published annual reports and passed the 5 Strikes system*. Since the last update four […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 5/12/2023 | MPE, LTHM, MIND | The Singapore Comparison

Bruce ponders why some companies that operate in the same sector enjoy such radically different fortunes. Companies covered MPE, LTHM, and MIND. The FTSE 100 rose +0.6% to 7,506 last week. The Nasdaq100 was flat, while the S&P500 rose +0.8%. The price of gold rose +2% to $2,035, which seems to have been driven by […]

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