Bruce considers whether profit warnings in the insurance and adtech signal that too much capital has been chasing too few opportunities. Sophisticated data models are no replacement for management turning cautious at the top of the cycle. Stocks covered SDI, RBGP and HOTC profit warning. The FTSE 100 recovered +1.6% last week to 7,276. Markets […]
Following the profit warnings from Fevertree and Creightons, Bruce questions the conventional wisdom that companies with strong brands do well in an inflationary environment. Companies covered CKN, CRL, and TM17. The FTSE 100 was down -1.6% last week to 7,082. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -2.95% and -2.8% respectively. The 2yr – 10yr yield […]
Bruce looks at the BoE twice-yearly Financial Stability Report and wonders if the regulator is too sanguine about the risks of stagflation. Companies covered PRV, the industrial filtration company, and forex/payments companies EQLS and AGFX. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,162, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 were up +2.0% and +4.5% respectively. That stock […]
Bruce sees more trouble on the horizon for the retail sector, fearing heavy discounting of unsold inventory later this year. Stocks covered SHOE, WISE and a post-mortem on DDDD. The FTSE 100 was down -0.6% last week to 7,160. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 fell -1.66% and -0.27% respectively. The US 10Y Government bond fell back […]
Bruce looks at Dan McCrum’s book on Wirecard and suggests that there are still a couple of details that don’t make sense about the fraud. Plus upbeat releases from STEM, K3C and REC. The FTSE 100 recovered +1.2% to 7,101 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up 0.9% and flat over the last 5 […]
Bruce reminisces about the demise of Pali, a firm he worked at in 2008 and looks at a couple of computer games companies (DEVO and FDEV) plus BOTB that reported last week. Markets had a difficult week with the FTSE 100 was down -3% to 7,114. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 both fell -9% as the […]
Bruce looks at the spread of expressions like ‘platform’ and ‘flywheel’ from software companies to other sectors, including life sciences. Companies covered ORPH, MRK and AO. The FTSE 100 was down -1.5% in the last 5 days to 7,418. That’s better than the Nasdaq100 -4.8% and S&P500 down -3.8% over the same time frame. Brent […]
Bruce looks at the performance of the UK economy muddling through WWI and the Spanish flu pandemic, an era when global trade flows and productivity also went into retreat. Stocks cover SFOR, IPX and OMG. The FTSE 100 rose +1.3% to 7592, in a short week due to the Platinum Jubilee. The price of oil […]
Bruce looks at how the market has de-rated on a price to sales metric since Q4 last year. But there are still 111 AIM shares trading on more than 10x revenue. Companies this week KNOS, MORE and RTN. The FTSE 100 rose +2.5% to 7569 last week. The S&P500 +4% and the Nasdaq100 +3.4% both […]
Bruce ponders the ingredients required to precipitate a systemic crisis, and why memories are so short in financial services. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7413 over the last 5 days. US markets had a more difficult week with the S&P500 -0.75% and Nasdaq100 -0.60%. The S&P500 is approaching bear market territory down […]
With the BoE now suggesting inflation peaks at 10% later this year, Bruce goes back to 1982 when Dexys Midnight Runners were topping the charts to compare household indebtedness then v now. Stocks covered WATR, CCT and TET. The FTSE 100 fell -1.3% to 7286 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -7% and the S&P500 […]
Bruce looks at how successful formulas, if copied without thought, can become lazy thinking. He looks at a profit warnings from last week LUCE and RCH. Plus a couple of acquisitive “roll-ups” which the auditors delayed signing off the results: SFOR and LTG. The FTSE was down -0.9% at to 7,443 last week. The US […]
Bruce discusses the concept of “edge” – now that we all have access to the same information, how can anyone enjoy an advantage? Companies covered this week ZOO, SWG, SMV. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,516 over the last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -2% and -2.4% over the same time period. […]
Bruce questions whether the value of intangible assets on Netflix’s balance sheet are of the same character as Disney’s intangible assets. Plus a mix of UK stocks that reported last week CBOX, SOLI and CAPD. The FTSE 100 was down -0.2% to 7,563 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -3.5% as Netflix was the latest […]
Bruce digs out an obscure 1957 paper on growth investing, that Warren Buffett refers to when answering a shareholder question at his AGM and applies the thinking to the ARKK Innovation ETF. Plus PZC, MRK and AGFX trading updates last week. The FTSE 100 closed ahead of the Easter weekend at just above 7,600, that’s […]
This week Bruce takes a look at Elon Musk’s Twitter activism and what the London Stock Exchange might learn from Musk’s other activities. Companies covered computer game publisher DEVO, online identity company IGP and management consultancies AFM and ELIX. The FTSE 100 was 7,619 +1.1% last week. The UK index of blue chips has been […]
Bruce looks at how pound-cost-averaging can help when the investing environment is particularly uncertain or the relationship between asset classes breaks down. Companies covered BUR, TND and EQLS. The FTSE 100 was up +0.8% last week to 7535. The Russian stock market was up +28%, after it re-opened following it being closed for a month, […]
Bruce suggests that strong equity markets may be reflecting asset class rotation out of government bonds, rather than optimism about the situation in Ukraine. Companies covered this week SPSY, FNTL, JDG The FTSE was up less than 1% to 7,492 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +2.4% and 1.3% respectively. US Government bonds […]
Based on conversations with a first hand source, Bruce believes the narrative about Ukraine may be too optimistic. But would be very happy to be proved wrong in the next week or two if a cease fire is signed AND upheld. Companies covered Fonix Mobile PLC, TP ICAP Group PLC and Litigation Capital Management. The […]
Bruce remains in risk averse mode, keeping an open mind and updating beliefs to see how the conflict in Ukraine might resolve. He looks at Clarkson, which should benefit from high commodity prices, and also Bango and Funding Circle. The FTSE 100 was up +2.7% to 7,178, having had a very volatile week. The S&P […]
Bruce looks at the root causes of the conflict in Ukraine, and outlines two scenarios that the Bank of Georgia research team (who know a thing or two about Russian invasions) have discussed. Plus 3 companies reporting last week. “All civil wars are dynastic wars, my lord King; all overseas wars are trade wars…Troy commanded […]
Bruce looks at UK banks’ FY Dec 2021 results and draws out some themes on revenue, profitability, “one off items”, competition, interest rates and price / book valuation. The FTSE 100 sold off sharply last week down -4% on Thursday last week. US markets were more sanguine with the S&P500 down -1.4% and the Nasdaq100 […]
Bruce remembers a former colleague, who preferred face to face interactions and was rarely at his desk during the afternoon (clue: he wasn’t in the metaverse either). Plus comments on Standard Chartered, HeiQ and Franchise Brand’s bid for Filta. The FTSE was down -1.5% to 7,543 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -0.6% and the […]
Bruce suggests that while long term “expensive quality” investments have become increasingly popular as discount rates have fallen, a natural hedge for such a portfolio is bank shares, which could now benefit as rates rise with inflation. The FTSE 100 was up +2% to 7,617 last week. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 were flat. The real […]
While he is away skiing, Bruce asked ex-fund manager (with 16 years experience) and private Investor Jamie Ward to manage his weekly commentary this week. Jamie looks at the best things about being a private investor compared to being in the Square Mile as well as results from three companies that at some points in […]
There’s considerable institutional pressure on financial analysts to be positive, but often the most valuable information is negative: what to avoid. Bruce looks at a couple of case studies that reported last week. The FTSE 100 was flat last week, at 7,497. Matt Moulding’s THG fell to 134p, down -10% in the week and now […]
Bruce looks at Terry Smith’s investor letter, admires his simple process. SharePad is also great research tool for assessing funds like Fundsmith, not just individual companies. Plus 3 companies that reported last week. The FTSE 100 was 7,521, down -0.3% last week. The US markets have sold off much harder last week, with the S&P500 […]
Bruce looks at risk management, and how to react to the discomfort of your positions being underwater. Plus 3 stocks that updated on progress last week: Equals, Franchise Brands and Frenkel Topping. The FTSE 100 was up +1% to 7554, driven by banks and oil companies which have enjoyed a strong start to 2022 (BP […]
Bruce looks at how 3 ideas he crowded sourced from readers did in 2021, and asks for suggestions for 2022. Plus 4 companies that have been busy with corporate activity (acquisitions, approaches, disposals). The FTSE 100 was up +1% in the first week of 2022 at 7,450. Markets in the US were less positive […]
Bruce assess his performance for 2021, and notes that he would have been better off doing nothing. He also looks at the skewed return distribution of returns of AIM shares, plus 2 companies that reported positive news last week. The FTSE 100 reached 7,400 on Christmas Eve, up +14% this year, versus the AIM All […]
Bruce looks at long run UK equity index returns over the decades. Index returns have been unexciting recently, but the top performing UK companies have still achieved 35-45% CAGR in the last 10 years. You just need to know what to look for. The FTSE 100 was 7,280 down less than -0.2% versus last week. […]
The FTSE 100 was up +2.7% to 7,321, recovering last week as early news out of South Africa suggested that fewer patients with the new variant were on ventilators. Both the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +2.8%. The US 10y Govt bond yield rose from 1.35% to 1.52% (ie Government bonds sold off as financial […]
The FTSE 100 was resilient, recovering to 7,157 on Friday up +1.6% for the week. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 were both down less than 0.5%. Interestingly though bond yields have reacted more cautiously to reports of the new variant, with US treasuries now yielding 1.43% a 24bp point fall versus the last week of November […]
Markets sold off sharply towards the end of last week, with the FTSE down almost 3% to 7,106. IAG (the old British Airways) and Rolls Royce were both off c. 10% last Friday. Novacyt was up +27% last week, after the company said its genesig® COVID-19 Real-Time PCR tests have been approved in the UK […]
The FTSE 100 fell in the second half of last week, but at 7,202 still remains around the top of its previous May-Oct trading range. The Nasdaq was up +1.75% and the S&P +0.5%. Brent Crude fell back below $80 per barrel, suggesting that tensions between the EU and Belorussia are not having a wider […]
The FTSE 100 rose +0.8% towards 7,400 before dipping back slightly on Friday to 7,353. That was a better week compared to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500, down -2% and -1% respectively. However, the FTSE outperformance has mostly been driven by a weak pound, which fell to 1.34 to the dollar, as currency markets reacted […]
The FTSE 100 hit a high for 2021 at 7,314. The S&P500 also continued to trend upwards, hitting a new high of 4,680 and now up +25% since the start of the year. In contrast, the FTSE China 50 Index is down -16% since the start of the year. The US bond yield was at […]
The FTSE 100 was flat last week, drifting around 7,226. Nasdaq and the S&P500 did better, up +2.8% and +1.1% respectively, following strong results from Google and Microsoft. Apple and Amazon signalled that disruption and costs from supplying customers with physical products were rising. Facebook became Meta. Name changes should not affect share prices, but […]
With the FTSE 100 reaching 7235 last week, the index finally seems to have broken out of the trading range that it has occupied since May. The index’s all time high is 7,903 reached in 2018. ITM, the hydrogen company raised £250m through an over-subscribed placing at a 16% discount. There’s still plenty to worry […]
Another volatile week, with the FTSE 100 falling to 6,950 but recovering to 7,080 on Friday. The AIM index is up +24% in the last 12 months, but more recently has given back performance relative to the FTSE 100 +18% because that index has a higher weighting towards bank and oil sectors. Paul Hall, from […]
The FTSE 100 had a volatile week, rallying, selling off then recovering to 7,040 last Friday. The Nasdaq100 was down -4% and S&P500 -3.3% last week. US 10y Govt bond yield continued to trend upwards to 1.55% versus a low of 1.19% at the start of August. The UK 10y bond yield is up even […]
Markets lurched downwards at the start of last week, with the FTSE 100 falling to 6,906 before recovering to 7,067. Nasdaq and the S&P also recovered during the week to 15,316 and 4,449 both moving less than half a percent. The FTSE China 50 was down 3.6%, and down 18% since the start of the […]
UK and US markets remain quiet, with the FTSE 100 at 7,013, struggling to keep its nose just above 7,000 last week. There continue to be spikes and drops in some commodities; earlier this year it was Rhodium hitting $25,000 an ounce, now Uranium is up +48% in the last 3 months, while Iron Ore […]
The FTSE 100 was down -1.4% this week to 7,048. The Nasdaq and S&P500 also fell, but less than -1% each. The FTSE China 50 was up +1% last week, the Mumbai and Russian stock exchanges remain the best performing YTD, both up +25% since the start of the year. Oxford Nanopore, the maker of […]
The FTSE 100 was up less than half a percent last week to 7,164, towards the top of the trading range that it has occupied since early May. The Nasdaq 100 was up +1.1% ahead of the S&P500 +0.6%. The China 50 was one of the best performing major indices up +2.8% to 18,291 as […]
The FTSE 100 was up half a percent last week to 7,124. The Nasdaq 100 had a better week +1.2% and the China 50 rebounded +4.5%, though that index is still down -14% in the last 3 months. The US 10-year bond yield finished last week at 1.35%, recovering from a low of 1.19% in […]
The FTSE 100 fell 2.5% last week and remains at the level it was in early May, at 7,048. The China 50 Index was down even more sharply 7.6% to 16,959. Alibaba fell 15% last week, and Tencent was also down 11%. The damage is being done by new data privacy laws that Beijing will […]
Bruce looks at how stock market indices can be skewed by a few large winners. The same goes for portfolio returns. Stocks covered this week are BOTB’s profit warning, plus H1 results from Clarkson, Ocean Wilsons and Georgia Capital. The FTSE was up +1.0% to 7,193 last week, outperforming the S&P500 which was up 0.5% […]
Last week the FTSE 100 was up +1.1% to 7,111, Nasdaq was up 1.5% to 15,181, outperforming the S&P 500, up +0.8% to 4,429. Both the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong and the FTSE China 50 Index were up less than 1% last week. The US 10Y bond yield continued to fall to 1.19% […]
The FTSE 100 bobbled about just above 7,000 last week. Nasdaq 100 was down less than half a percent, as strong results from Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple all beat analyst forecasts on the top line. This was offset somewhat by Amazon, which reported sales growth slowing as lockdown measures eased. Maybe Jeff Bezos has timed […]
Markets sold off at the beginning of last week, with the FTSE 100 falling to 6,849 before recovering to above 7000 at the end of the week. We saw similar sell offs in the Europe and the US markets, including Nasdaq which was down -2.5% early last week, which seems odd if jitters were caused […]
The Bank of England released its twice yearly Financial Stability Report last week. The report says that UK bank balance sheets are in much better shape than the 2007-8 crisis and they expect impairments in 2021 to be lower than the £22bn credit losses taken last year. The “guardrails” against shareholder dividends have now been […]
Just as I thought the FTSE 100 was breaking out of its trading range 7000-7200 markets dipped at the end of last week to leave the FTSE at 7084. The US 10 year Government bond yield fell to 1.33%, down from a peak of 1.74% at the end of March, suggesting that bond markets have […]
The FTSE 100 at 7,145 appears to be breaking out of the trading range that it has occupied since the beginning of May. The S&P +15% since the start of the year, is still ahead of the Nasdaq +13% although last week the latter was closing the gap, reporting a positive +1.5% gain. Amazon is […]
The FTSE 100 is up +10% since the start of the year, currently at 7,120. The best performing stock in the FTSE 100 in H1 was Royal Mail +72%, followed by Entain +61% and Ashtead +57%. The worst was Fresnillo -29%, the Mexican based silver miner. This was followed by food retailers: Tesco -24%, Just […]
The FTSE 100 finished the week flat, ending at 7,130. Both Nasdaq and the S&P500 also moved less than 1%; it was almost as if the sun was shining and traders were watching football matches. There were more significant moves in Govt bond markets, the US 10y bond yield rising to 1.57%, responding sharply to […]
The FTSE remains range bound, up less than +1% to 7,125 last week, still below its 2021 high of 7,130 reached in early May. The S&P500 was flat at 4,239 and Nasdaq was up +1.4% to 13,960. Though companies are talking about input cost inflation, most commodities are also off their recent highs, with the […]
Last week Brent crude was up +4% to $71 per barrel which helped BP +6% and Shell +4% lead the FTSE 100. Since the 7th May high the index has kept a narrow range between 7,130 and 6,950, currently 7,060. In the US, car companies like GM were up +7% (or +52% since 1st Jan) […]
The FTSE 100 is up +10% since the start of the year, currently at 7,120. The best performing stock in the FTSE 100 in H1 was Royal Mail +72%, followed by Entain +61% and Ashtead +57%. The worst was Fresnillo -29%, the Mexican-based silver miner. This was followed by food retailers: Tesco -24%, Just Eat […]
The FTSE was quiet remaining just above 7,000 through the week. Looking at the five best performing stocks since the start of the year (Ashstead +53%, Entain +47%, Evraz +38%, Glencore +38%, Lloyds +37%) and the worst five (Tesco -24%, Just Eat -23%, Fresnillo -19%, London Stock Exchange -18%, Ocado -16%) it’s hard to discern […]
This week I look at Cerillion, the telco billing Group; Sanderson Design Group, the wallpaper and interior design company (previously known as Walker Greenbank); SigmaRoc, which is acquiring concrete quarries, and Games Workshop which needs no introduction to most readers.
Markets sold off last week, with the FTSE 100 down -2.3%, S&P 500 -2.8% and Nasdaq 100 -4.5%. The best performing index was Brazil’s Bovespa, which was still up less than 1%. Despite the sell-off being attributed to inflation, the UK 10Y bond yield at 0.86% and US 10Y bond yield at 1.64% remained steady. […]
It’s good to have management with experience of boom and bust cycles, so Bruce looks at two companies run by Chairmen over 80 years old. With the FA Cup and Champions League Final later this month he starts with some football stories from his time at Seymour Pierce.
Bruce looks at tech stocks reporting Q1 results in the US, Google vs Facebook, and the resurgence of Microsoft. Plus a mix of UK companies reporting this week, including Tristel, Water Intelligence, HeiQ and Sylvania.
Markets have been very strong recently, so it’s important not to get carried away. Bruce looks at stocks with accrued income, % revenue recognition, acquisition and fair value accounting adjustments.
Bruce wonders if value vs momentum factors is really the best way to think about companies on the stock market. He also looks at the Novacyt profit warning, The Mission, and two high performance stocks: Volex and Impax.
We are most of the way through result season for companies with December year ends. Bruce discusses how companies with patchy track records can border on evasive in their RNS disclosure, without quite crossing the line to unacceptable. Often the share price reactions suggests that investors aren’t fooled though.
There have been at least 15 ten baggers since the March low in the UK. Bruce looks at 4 stocks that now have a fair wind behind them, that should be geared into further recovery.
Bruce compares a couple of Direct Carrier Billing (DCB), mobile payment platforms: Boku v Bango. He wonders if platform economics has become too popular, with the benefits well recognised but not downside. Also Ocean Wilsons, the Brazilian (Salvador, Bahia) port business.
Bruce looks at the fungible vs non fungible assets, using examples from recent events in the art markets. Stocks covered this week are Kape, Somero and Tremor.
With Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust down 9% last week, Bruce looks at the debate between Lawrence “usually a mistake to sell” Burns of Baillie Gifford and Andrew “take profits” Dickson of Albert Bridge Capital. Companies covered Renishaw, Solid State, K3 Capital and Franchise Brands.
Nasdaq sold off last week, down 7% since the middle of February, though still up since the start of the year. Tesla fell to $680, versus a peak of $896 earlier in February. US 10y yields hit 1.49% last week up over 50bp in the last month Financial bubbles don’t pop because speculators suddenly start […]
At midnight, on 1st January this year, the K.L.F. released their back catalogue of music (hits such as 3AM Eternal, Justified and Ancient, Last Train to Trancentral) on Spotify and uploaded their old videos to YouTube. This was their first activity as a band since 1992, when they announced they were leaving the music industry […]
Last week Bloomberg reported that junk bond yields in the US fell below 4% the lowest level ever recorded and down from 11.5% peak yield in March last year. This is the opposite direction to the yield on the “risk free rate” of US 10y bond (hitting 1.18% last week) which has been steadily rising […]
Moonpig IPO’ed last week at 350p, valuing the company at £1.2bn, and the shares rose +24% to 430p the following day. Meanwhile the FT reported that Elon Musk is expecting SpaceX to be valued at $60bn in a funding round later this month. Virgin Galactic is up +163% in the last 3 months. Valuations are […]
Some of the speculative exuberance has spilled over the punch bowl at the cryptocurrency party into a number of glass half empty equities. GameStonk, err I mean GameStop, rose from below $20 a share earlier this month to over $500 per share, as retail traders from the Reddit thread “Wall Street Bets” piled in to […]
I was initially unimpressed by the UK’s mass vaccination rollout. However it is important to keep updating your beliefs when data is better than you had been expecting and not miss the inflection point. From below 150K per week in December, we now have almost 5m vaccinated. My mistake was to extrapolate in a linear […]
In the early days of a new Democrat presidency, the President’s campaign manager observed that: “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or a 0.400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate anybody.” The […]
The FTSE 100 started the year strongly +6% during the week to 6857. Both the S&P 500 +1.3% to 3804 Nasdaq +1.4% to 13068 were more subdued, though largely unaffected by events in Washington. 10 years ago when I was in Tbilisi, I remember a US dignitary explaining to the Georgians that the point of […]
“Until the day when God shall deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is summed up in these two words… wait and hope.” – The Count of Monte Cristo The FTSE 100 finished the year at 6460, down 14% from 7585 this time last year. There were some odd movements in share […]
The FTSE 100 closed around 6,487 to 24 December down -15% from the start of the year. From a peak of 7670 in mid-January the index fell by -35% to a low of 4998 at the end of March before recovering +30%. A reminder of the importance of pound cost averaging, because a -30% drop, […]
The FTSE stayed level around 6580, while Nasdaq hit a new high of 12752. Bitcoin rose through $20,000 for the first time. I have a dim memory of a party in South London, around 2006-2007, when someone began trying to convince me that everyone could create their own electronic currency. After all, he said, money […]
After a strong November and start of December the FTSE 100 was largely unchanged this week at 6566. More broadly, the signs of a cyclical recovery are evident: oil price rose through $50 a barrel and copper and other industrial commodities have also been strong. Airbnb IPO’ed with the shares closing on their first day […]
The best performing FTSE 100 stock last week was Rolls Royce, up 19%. The worst was Unilever down 6.5%, which suggests expectations of a vaccine are inoculating investors against risk. On Nasdaq, the vaccine stock Moderna, was the best performing up 44% in the last 5 days, while Zoom was the second worst performing down […]
FTSE weakened slightly to 6300 in the second half of last week, but the bounce of former “Covid losers” continued with Rolls Royce, Glencore, Shell and BP all up 8% in the last 5 days. Nasdaq continued to rise to 12152 and Tesla’s value exceeded half a trillion dollars. airbnb IPO Last week airbnb filed […]
We are beginning to see companies operating in the “real” economy announce raised guidance. Somero (exceeding previous revenue guidance by +7%), but also Headlam (materially ahead), Acesso (comfortably ahead). Saga share price was also up +57% during the week. The FTSE 100 is currently 6378, which is the same level as early March this year. […]
Banks and other “covid losers” were up strongly at the start of last week as Pfizer announced they believe they have a credible vaccine. US Treasuries 10 year yield jumped up to 0.98% (the red dot on the chart below) from the 0.79% last week. This is a significant move, the yield curve seems to […]
The US Presidential election turned out to be closer than most people expected. Nasdaq up almost +10% over the week to 12078. Tech stocks reacted well to the uncertainty, but so did 10 year US Bond yields, which initially jumped to 0.9% before falling back to 0.78%. I’m not sure if you’d predicted the result, […]
Last week markets sold off into the rising cases of Covid. The FTSE 100 fell 5% last week to 5561. Large UK banks HSBC and NatWest reported encouraging results, although the sector remained unloved. Directors selling Given the strength of the market’s rally over the last 6 months, and then last week’s sell off, I […]
Markets recovered slightly towards the end of the week, with the FTSE 100 at 5888. Nasdaq was at 11662. Last week Netflix reported Q3 results, with “only” 2m net new subscribers in the quarter, v 16m in Q1 and 10m in Q2. The company had previously guided that subscribers would slow in Q3 to 2.5m […]
“Fad companies are companies with good business models or good products. So, why would we be interested in shorting a company that has a good product? Because of the threat it presents to others and their likely response to that threat. For example, Netflix had a terrific idea of renting DVDs through the mail, which […]
Last week the FTSE recovered to just over 6000. The (perhaps inappropriately named) Bond film No Time to Die, was postponed until next year by its Hollywood studio, MGM, which has left cinemas in trouble. Cineworld is on the brink, a victim of an overly leveraged balance sheet but no product to distribute. Up until […]
Last week Andy Haldane at the Bank of England gave an interesting speech on “Economic Anxiety” noting that pessimism can be as contagious as the disease. Haldane is most famous for his “Dog and the Frisbee” speech, which he co-wrote with the famous psychologist Gerd Gigarenzer in 2012. Catching a frisbee is difficult; theoretically it […]
Markets sold off last week as virus case rises rose (FTSE 100 fell to below 5800 before recovering slightly later in the week, Nasdaq down 4% to 10,800). The virus itself seems reasonably predictable, everyone has been expecting cases to rise as summer turns to autumn. What hasn’t been predictable is Government responses around the […]
The FTSE 100 just about held its level above 6000 last week. Last week was Chilean Independence Day. It is a little known footnote in history that Lord Cochrane, who was involved in the great Stock Exchange scam of 1814 (accused of starting rumours of Napoleon’s death via the Admiralty’s semaphore telegraph) helped not one, […]
The oil price fell to a 3 month low in the middle of last week to below $40 a barrel. Oil is in contango (futures price higher than spot price) which suggests that despite production cuts, traders are still worried about demand over the next few months. Ironically Tesla shares were off even more sharply […]
St Leger Day, as in ““Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger Day”, is approaching. I’ve always wondered who St Leger was, and why a saint might have had a horse race named in his honour. Was Saint Leger the patron saint of book making? Well no, it turns out […]
Nasdaq continued to hit new highs, at 11,666 up +30% from the start of the year and up 2.5x in the last 5 years. I can’t think of anyone suggesting in January that all three of I) Gold, II) Govt bonds and III) Nasdaq would be up strongly from the start of the year. Such […]
Rightmove released a survey showing that the UK housing agreed sales picked up strongly to a record £37bn. A day later Persimmon reported half year results to end of June, adding that reported sales since the start of July were up 49% vs the same period last year. This would not have come as a […]
Every crisis presents opportunities. A contrarian strategy of buying bank shares during the point of maximum gloom during a recession has often, but not always, been a good idea. It most definitely failed in 2008 when banks needed to raise capital and had to rely on Government bail outs. But it has worked in previous […]
