Category: Bruce Packard

Weekly Market Commentary | 14/05/2024 | AGFX, JDW, ULTP | Professional button pushers

Nvidia’s share price has risen by 8x in the last 18 months, yet it is not obvious which businesses their GPUs will disrupt.  Stocks covered AGFX, JDW and ULTP. The FTSE 100 rose +2.5% to 8,420 and continues to hit all-time highs. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.5% and +1.8% respectively. Oil was down […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 30/04/2024 | JET2, FTC, DARK | Accountability sinks

This week Bruce looks at long-term multi-bagger Jet2, up around 120x from its 2008 low, and Filtronic, which has announced a contract win with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Plus another bid from US Private Equity, this time for cybersecurity firm Darktrace. The FTSE 100 rose +1.9% to 8,175 last week. The US markets performed even better, […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 02/04/2024 | ZOO, KETL, TMG | Challenging Goliath

A look at a possible reason for the outperformance of large-cap US technology stocks, and what might reverse the trend in favour of smaller companies. Stocks covered: ZOO, KETL, TMG. The FTSE 100 was up +0.9% last week to 7,952. Nasdaq100 was down -0.3% while the S&P500 was up by a similar amount. China resumed […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 26/03/2024 | CEY, CBG, ANP | A couple of important break-outs

A look at two charts that suggest reasons for growing optimism, even as the UK performance has lagged other markets. Companies covered CEY, CBG and ANP. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% last week to 7,869. The Nasdaq100 was also strong up +3% and the S&P500 up +2.3%. China and Japan enjoyed contrasting fortunes last […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/03/2024 | HAT, CAPD, BGEO | As good as gold?

A look at the performance of gold, and some dividend yield paying shares which should also benefit from the rising gold price.  Companies covered: HAT, CAPD and BGEO.    The FTSE 100 was up +1% to 7,749 last week. Meanwhile, Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -1.2% and -0.2% respectively. The FTSE China 50 has now […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 12/03/2024 | BKS, FCH, NEXN | A good thing that the world doesn’t run on chocolate

A look at how commodity prices have performed since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Companies covered: BKS, FCH and NEXN. The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 7,629, as were the S&P500 and the FTSE China 50. The Nasdaq100 was down -1.5%. Bitcoin rose +9% to within touching distance of $70K and gold was up […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 05/03/2024 | ENSI, ADF, RMV | AIM cross-over approaching?

A trend following signal for AIM is close to turning positive, so we could see confidence return in smaller UK stocks.  Companies covered: ENSI, ADF and RMV. The FTSE 100 was down -0.4% to 7,659 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +2.0 and +1.0% respectively. In the US the bull market continues, with […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 27/02/2024 | BARC, HL., LOK, ARC | Where are all the shareholders’ yachts?

Bruce looks at an old equity research note from 1993 and ponders if in some sectors customers receive a better deal than shareholders. Companies covered BARC, HL., LOK, ARC The FTSE 100 fell -0.6% last week to 7,683. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +0.5% and +1.7% respectively. The excitement was provided by Nvidia results, […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 30/01/2024 | FEVR, ELCO, FNX, BOKU | Gogi’s barometer

Bruce remembers a metaphor from the founder of the Georgian Stock Exchange and wonders how it might apply to Chinese financial markets. Companies covered: FEVR, ELCO, FNX, BOKU. The FTSE 100 was up +2.2% to 7653 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.4% and 1.1%. Brent Crude was up +4% in the last 5 […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 23/01/2024 | DPP, NXQ, CRPR | Following the fund flows

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While active fund managers are seeing redemptions, platforms like AJB and IHP have been reporting healthy quarterly inflows.  Other stocks covered DPP, NXQ, CRPR. The FTSE 100 fell -1.7% last week to 7,466. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose +2.9% and 1.25% respectively. US markets are enjoying a reasonably strong start to the year, and are […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 16/01/2024 | JUP, ASHM, IPX, POLR, PMI | Terry Smith and other historians

Terry Smith has published his annual performance update letter, plus a look at companies in the listed active fund manager sector. Companies covered JUP, ASHM, IPX, POLR, PMI.   The FTSE 100 fell -1% to 7613 last week. The Nasdaq100 was up +3.2% and the S&P was up +1.8% in the last five trading days. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 09/01/2024 | JD., CMCX | How the yield curve got it wrong

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Bruce looks at why the inverted yield curve seems to have sent a false signal about a recession.  Companies covered: JD. and CMCX.   The FTSE 100 fell -0.9% to 7,658 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -3.5% and the S&P500 was down -1.8%. The FTSE China 50 was the worst performing index, down -4.7% […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 03/01/2024 | AVAP | What’s in store for 2024?

Bruce reviews 2023 performance and the outlook for this year. Plus a detailed write-up of aircraft leasing business AVAP.   Last year the Nasdaq 100 was the best-performing major index, up +54%, followed by Japan’s Nikkei. Not something that many people would have predicted. The S&P500 also did well +24% last year, followed by the […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/12/2023 | AJB, HL., CHRT, MSI | Central Banks turn dovish

With Central Banks turning dovish, Bruce looks for the 16 / 64 day moving average crossover to call the turn to a more bullish market in 2024. Stocks covered investment platforms AJB, HL. plus defence stocks CHRT and MSI. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to 7617 last week. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 12/12/2023 | CML, SOLI, SDI | Instability from property?

Bruce looks at the prospects for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and wonders if this will become a source of market instability in 2024. Companies covered CML, SOLI, and SDI. The FTSE 100 was flat last week, hovering around the 7,500 mark. In the US, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than half a […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 5/12/2023 | MPE, LTHM, MIND | The Singapore Comparison

Bruce ponders why some companies that operate in the same sector enjoy such radically different fortunes. Companies covered MPE, LTHM, and MIND. The FTSE 100 rose +0.6% to 7,506 last week. The Nasdaq100 was flat, while the S&P500 rose +0.8%. The price of gold rose +2% to $2,035, which seems to have been driven by […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 7/11/23 | AML, ULTP, HEIQ | The bids keep coming

With two more bids coming in for small-cap stocks, Bruce looks at the average premiums being offered by buyers. Companies covered: AML, ULTP and HEIQ.   The FTSE 100 was up +1.3% to 7,426 last week. Meanwhile, there was a very strong rally in the US markets with Nasdaq100 +6.4% and the S&P500 up +5.9%. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 31/10/23 | CABP, OMG, IPF | CAB crash

As two more bids come in for small-cap listed companies, and another Private Equity IPO disappoints, Bruce looks at the trends that are shrinking public stock markets. Companies covered: CABP, OMG, IPF.   The FTSE 100 was down -1.5% to 7,291 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -2.6% and the S&P500 was down -2.5%. US […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 24/10/23 | STJ, HL., BPM, LIO, TMG | Forced selling creating an opportunity?

Bruce looks at UK fund manager outflows, both at an industry level and manager-specific level. Companies covered: STJ, HL., BPM, LIO, TMG. The FTSE 100 was down -3.2% last week to 7,384. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were also both down -2.9% and -2.4% respectively, with the FTSE China 50 off even more steeply at -4.7% over […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 17/10/23 | IPX, SDG, YOU, OXIG, MRK | Misbelief and markets

Bruce looks at what we can learn from Oscar Wilde and a half-bearded psychology professor on flawed narratives that capture people’s imagination. Companies covered: IPX, SDG, YOU, OXIG and MRK.    The FTSE 100 was up +1.35% to 7,596. Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both up less than +0.5% in the last five days. In Japan, […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 10/10/23 | BOO, PEEL, MTRO | Widening direct equity ownership

Attempts to widen direct equity ownership in the UK stock market are gathering pace, even as the high dividend yields on fund managers are signalling problems with that business model. Stocks covered BOO, PEEL, MTRO. The FTSE 100 was up +0.3% to 7,536 last week. The Nasdaq100 rose +1.8% and the S&P500 was up +0.5%. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 03/10/23 | PZC, YU, SCE, GTC | Solving Greenspan’s conundrum

Bruce uses Sharepad to look at recent movements in the US long bond yields USTSY10 and the bondholder total return TLT ETF. Companies covered, PZC, YU, SCE and GTC.   The FTSE 100 fell -1.8% in the last 5 trading days to 7613. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were flat and down -0.75% respectively. The FTSE […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 26/09/23 | HL., CODE, 4BB | Not just the UK housing market

Bruce suggests that government bonds and mortgages have been beneficiaries of Basel banking regulations over the last few decades. The effects of rising interest rates won’t be limited to the UK housing market. Companies covered HL., CODE and 4BB. The FTSE 100 was down -0.3% to 7,630 over the last five trading days. The Nasdaq […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 19/09/23 | ELIX, FEVR, FDEV | Investing against the flows

Bruce suggests that rather than ARM’s successful IPO, the likely catalyst for more companies coming to market will be retail flows into funds. Companies covered ELIX, FEVR and FDEV. The FTSE 100 was up +2.6% last week to 7,688 helped by mining stocks and financials. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both down less than -0.5%. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 12/09/23 | BUR, STVG, WINK, CVSG | Chaos Kings

Bruce reviews a recent book Chaos Kings, on investors who benefit from financial crises and volatility. Companies covered BUR, STVG, WINK and CVSG. The FTSE 100 was up 0.5% to 7,494 last week and was the best-performing major indices other than the Mumbai S&P BSE +2.1% over that time period. Nasdaq100 and S&P were down […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 05/09/23 | SDRY, BNZL, PBEE | Emotional dividends

If the price of trophy assets like football clubs are wildly above intrinsic value, perhaps there’s a way for less wealthy investors to benefit from the same theme? Companies covered SDRY, BNZL and PBEE. The FTSE 100 was up +2.4% at 7,511 last week. The index is exactly flat on 5 years, though what 5 […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 29/08/23 | CMCX, EYE, TRCS | Join the sinful to regain innocence

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Bruce looks at UK retail equity fund flows, and their implications for future expected returns.  Companies covered CMCX, EYE, TRCS. The FTSE 100 rose +1% to close at 7,338 over the bank holiday weekend. The Nasdaq100 was up +1.7%, while the FTSE China 50 was up very strongly +5.1% as their Ministry of Finance cut […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 22/08/23 | LGEN, JUST, TRMR | An opportunity in plain sight?

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Bruce suggests that the nature of cross border capital flows might present an opportunity in front of our eyes, in FTSE and AIM stocks. Companies covered LGEN, JUST and TRMR. Last week I suggested that with the VIX below 16, some complacency might be creeping back into markets. Right on cue, the FTSE 100 fell […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 15/08/23 | SDI, D4T4, JIM | Cross border imbalances creating instability

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The VIX index is currently below 16, signalling some complacency may be creeping back into markets, so Bruce looks at the deterioration in near term liquidity measures.  Stocks covered: SDI, D4T4 and JIM.   The FTSE 100 was down -0.6% to 7,509, while the Nasdaq100 fell -1.6% and the S&P500 was down -0.3%. The price […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 08/08/23 | GRG, TW., DEVO| The Outlook for Approvals

Bruce uses Sharepad to look at H1 mortgage approvals data going back to the mid-1990s, and house prices back to the 1950s. Companies covered: GRG, TW. and DEVO. All three of the FTSE 100, S&P500 and FTSE China50 were down -2.2% in the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 was even worse down -3%. The US […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 01/08/23 | LLOY, TSTL, RBGP | An Engine, Not a Camera

Bruce makes some broad observations about how economists’ models drive Central Bank behaviour and interest rate expectations.  Companies covered: LLOY, TSTL, RBGP The FTSE 100 was flat in the last five days at 7,688. Nasdaq100 was up +2% and the S&P500 was +0.75%. The FTSE China 50 Index was up +3.9% as the renminbi rose […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 25/07/23 | ONT, DARK, HL., AJB | Base effects

With inflation peaking in the UK (at least for now), Bruce looks at some larger cap stocks that have broken through their 200-day moving averages on the upside.  Companies covered: ONT, DARK, HL., AJB  The FTSE 100 enjoyed a strong week up 3.4% to 7,658 as last week the UK’s inflation data was better than […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 11/07/23 | KOO, SUP, SMV | Bank deposits and dividend yields

While the dividend yield on the FTSE and AIM indices is not high relative to history, it does seem remarkable that >8% yields are available on companies in so many different sectors.  Stocks covered KOO, SUP and SMV. The FTSE 100 fell -3.5% in the last 5 days, with the Nasdaq 100 up +0.7% and […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 4/07/23 | WISE, TBLD, DPP | Safe haven investing

Bruce looks at the idea of tail risk hedging but thinks that the strategy might be too difficult for private investors to implement. Instead, companies significant cash could be an interesting theme for H2. Companies covered WISE, TBLD and DPP. The FTSE 100 rose +1.4% last week to 7556, while the Nasdaq10 and S&P 500 […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 27/06/23 | MANO, SOM, HOTC, BOTB | And Quiet Flows the Don

Bruce suggests that unemployment, rather than interest rates, will be the driver of banks’ bad debts. Companies covered MANO, and profit warnings from SOM and HOTC, plus Teddy Sagi’s bid for BOTB.  After an entertaining weekend in Russia, one observation from a military friend who was in the Donbass, now in Libya, is that a […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 20/06/23 | W7L, FDEV, VNET | Stale blows the London IPOs

Bruce looks at recent trends in the IPO market and questions whether attracting new listings at any price really is good news for investors in London’s equity capital markets.  Companies covered W7L, FDEV and VNET. The FTSE 100 was up +0.5% to 7,618 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +3.8% […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 13/06/23 | OMG, GHH, OCN, ADB | A bifurcating bull market

Bruce looks at the divergent performance of the Nasdaq100 +22% since its October lows, versus AIM which is flat over the same time period. Companies covered OMG, GHH, OCN and ADB. The FTSE 100 fell -0.3% to 7,573 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were both flat over the last 5 trading days. A week […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 06/06/23 | BOWL, BMY, DOCS | Copper’s super contango

Bruce looks at 3 companies on low teens PERs that reported last week: BOWL, BMY and DOCS.  But he wonders if copper is suggesting negative macroeconomic news that is not yet priced in. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7646 last week. In the last 5 days, the Nasdaq100 was very strong, up +4.4% and […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 23/05/23 | BLV, SHOE, OTB | Does the house always win?

Bruce uses Sharepad to graph UK house prices and mortgage approvals data back to the 1980s. Companies covered BLV, SHOE and OTB. The FTSE 100 was flat in the last 5 days, at 7,774. The Nasdaq100 was up strongly +3.4%, as was the KBW US regional banks index (KRE) up +7.7% while the S&P500 was […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 16/05/23 | MANU, SDI, CGEO | Valuing a Trophy Asset

Bruce uses Sharepad to analyse the performance of MANU shares, listed on the NYSE. The football team presents some interesting challenges for valuing debt-funded intangible assets. Plus SDI’s profit warning, and CGEO’s Q1 results. The Bank of England raised interest rates to 4.5% last week, as the FTSE 100 rose +0.7% to 7,754. Since last […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 09/05/23 | HEIQ, SDRY, LLOY, HL., KITW | Professor Altman’s Average

Bruce looks at Prof Altman’s credit analysis, going back 4 decades, suggesting US corporate default rates might rise above average, so understanding Sharepad’s Altman Z score could prove valuable. Stocks covered HEIQ, SDRY, LLOY, HL. and KITW. The FTSE 100 fell -1.2% to 7,737 in the last 5 days. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 were […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 02/05/23 | BARC, NWG, MGP, NUM, SMV, AOM | A liquidity crunch?

UK banks BARC and NWG reported Q1 results, with contrasting trends in customer deposits. Also covered: bid approaches for MGP, NUM and SMV, plus a look at AOM. Last week the FTSE 100 was down -1.3% to 7,812. The Nasdaq100 was up +1.3% while the S&P 500 was broadly flat in the last 5 days. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 25/04/23 | MONY, KMK, THRU | Inflation and banking deposits

Bruce looks at the influence double-digit inflation is having on bank deposits. Companies covered MONY, KMK and THRU. The FTSE 100 was up +0.4% to 7,907 over the last 5 days, while the Nasdaq 100 fell -0.6% and the S&P500 was flat. The Natural Gas contract (NG-MT) was up +31% in the last 5 days […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 18/04/23 | AGFX, JTC, SIS, SDRY| Some thoughts on averaging down

Bruce shares some thoughts on averaging down when a share price falls versus supporting a company that needs to raise capital. Companies covered AGFX, JTC, SIS, and SDRY. The FTSE 100 was up +2.0% in the last five days to 7,902. The Nasdaq100 was up +0.1% and S&P500 +0.8% over the same time period. The […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 11/04/23 | RAT, FRAN, G4M | Tech disconnecting from banks

We have seen a disconnect between the performance of Nasdaq 100 (+19% YTD) versus US regional banks (-28% YTD). Companies covered: two large acquisitions by RAT, FRAN plus G4M’s profit warning. The FTSE 100 was up +2% over the last 5 trading days to 7,788. The S&P500 was flat, while the Nasdaq100 was down -1% […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 04/04/23 | TM17, TBLD, KWS, AQX, BUR | Platforms for shareholder democracy

Platforms have made it easier for retail shareholders to vote at company AGMs, remuneration committees should take note. Plus a look at the computer games sector: TM17, TBLD, KWS and a couple of financials AQX and BUR. The FTSE 100 rose to 7,685 last week, an increase of +2.9%. The Nasdaq100 and the S&P500 were […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 28/03/23 | KAPE, SDRY, ALPH, EQLS | The End of Alchemy

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The Swiss Central Bank’s balance sheet in 2022 shows signs that Credit Suisse’s problems were well understood, but harder for the authorities to resolve. Companies covered KAPE, SDRY, ALPH and EQLS.  The FTSE rose +1% to 7476 in the last five days, most of which was on Monday morning. The Nasdaq100 was up +2% and […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 21/03/23 | BUR, TCAP | Who is next?

With the ‘rescue’ of Credit Suisse over the weekend, Bruce ponders what might happen next and which indicators to focus on. Companies covered BUR and TCAP. The FTSE 100 fell -2.5% to 7,358 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +1.4% and 5.8% respectively, indicating that the sell-off in markets has […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 14/03/23 | IPO, FRAN, BGEO / TBCG | We wanted flying cars…

Following the rescue of Silicon Valley Bank, Bruce looks at possible read across to recent IPOs and IP Group. Companies covered IPO, FRAN and Georgian Banks BGEO / TBCG. I suggested last week that the rally was running out of steam. I was not expecting a bank run in Silicon Valley though (SIVB total assets […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 07/03/23 | CAPC, RMV, RCDO | Banking on Equity Returns

With the rally running out of steam, Bruce looks at long-run equity returns. The two banks which compete to publish this data have performed much worse than the average equity. Companies covered SHC, RMV and RCDO. The rally seems to be running out of steam. The FTSE 100 was down -0.2% to 7,917. The Nasdaq […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 28/02/23 | AVAP, SLP, GBG| Letter from Berkshire

Bruce looks at the Berkshire Hathaway 2022 shareholder letter, which Buffett published over the weekend.  Stocks covered AVAP, SLP and GBG. The FTSE 100 remained just below 8,000, and was down less than -1%, recovering from a sell-off early last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 sold off more heavily, down -3.9% and -3.0% respectively. The […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 21/02/23 | KAPE, HL., BGEO | Cross border liquidity

Cross-border liquidity could be driving the market rally, so it’s worth keeping an eye on Central Banks in China and Japan.  Companies covered KAPE, HL. and BGEO.  The FTSE traded above 8,000 last week, up +0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 was up +0.4% while the S&P 500 was down -0.3%. The US 10Y bond yield has […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 14/02/23 | ULVR, RDW, EKF, RNO | AIM’s IPO buy signal

IPO activity on AIM has hit a 20-year low, which Maynard speculates could be a buy signal for shares on the junior market. Plus coverage of ULVR, RDW, EKF and RNO. Another weekly commentary from me while Bruce is away. I had hoped the FTSE 100 would add just 1.2% to surpass the 8,000 milestone […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 07/02/23 | GSK, DARK, SOM, TPX | New FTSE Highs

As the FTSE 100 reaches a new peak, Maynard looks at another blue-chip measure setting record highs. Plus coverage of GSK, DARK, SOM and TPX. Bruce asked me to compile these commentaries while he is away on holiday. Many private investors swear their portfolios perform better when they’re not watching the markets, and a record […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 31/01/23 | SDRY, NFC, SAA, BOTB, CWR | An indiscriminate rally

With equity markets and industrial metals like copper rallying at the start of this year, Bruce looks at some companies geared into the recovery. SDRY, NFC, SAA, BOTB and CWR. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,774 in the last 5 trading days. In the US the S&P was up +2.5% and the Nasdaq 100 […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 24/01/23 | ALPH, EQLS, CAPD | Currency markets and capital controls

Bruce looks at the government’s misguided attempt to defend the pound with capital controls in the 1970s. Companies covered are forex traders ALPH and EQLS, plus CAPD. The FTSE 100 was down 0.9% in the last 5 days to 7,791. The S&P500 was down -0.3% while Nasdaq100 was up +1.39% over the same time period. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 17/01/23 | GAW, TMG, FRAN, QTX | Terry Smith’s Triskaidekaphobia

Bruce looks at Terry Smith’s 13th annual shareholder letter and compares what he’s now saying about his META investment to his commentary a couple of years ago.  Companies covered GAW, TMG, FRAN, QTX The strong start to the year continues, with the FTSE 100 +1.64% to 7,851 in the last 5 days, approaching an all-time […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 10/01/23 | NXT, CNC, HEIQ, FDEV | Weathering the stormy markets

Bruce looks at how the warm weather in Europe has been affecting financial markets.  Companies covered NXT and CNC, plus profit warnings from HEIQ and FDEV. The FTSE 100 has enjoyed a strong early January, up +3.4% to 7,705. OCDO was up +20%, while IAG (the old British Airways) and BT were up +17% and […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 20/12/22 | FCAP, GAW, ZTF | Mortgages v equity investing

Bruce looks at the BoE Financial Stability Report and ponders whether the rising cost of mortgages will cause forced selling in equity markets.  Companies covered FCAP, GAW and ZTF The FTSE 100 was down -1% in the last 5 days to 7,373, with the Nasdaq100 -2.8% and S&P500 -2.1%. The FTSE 100 was also flat […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 13/12/22 | K3C,SOLI, MSI, SDI | Redemption Song

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Bruce thinks that net outflows from professional fund managers could eventually create an opportunity for amateur investors because we’re not forced to sell when markets fall.  Companies covered K3C, SOLI, MSI, and SDI. The FTSE 100 was down -1.6% in the last five days to 7,446. The S&P500 -3.4% and Nasdaq100 -3.6% were even weaker. […]

Weekly Market Commentary | 6/12/22 | C4XD, CRL, PEEL, FCAP | Santa Rally arrives early

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Bruce looks at the bounce in markets over the last 2 months and suggests some ideas that could benefit from a recovery in risk appetite.  C4XD, CRL, PEEL, FCAP We’ve had a strong rally in markets since the lows at the beginning of October, the pound is up +15% against the dollar and AIM is […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1 | 22/11/22 |HVO, BMS | The Emperor’s New Blockchain

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Bruce ponders if any large corporates are exposed as social proof in crypto disappear.  Companies covered HVO and BMS   The FTSE has been flat at just below 7,400 for the last 5 days. The S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 are both down around -1%. The China FTSE 50, has enjoyed a +22% bounce from its […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 18/11/22 |CMC |Globalisation and index returns

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Bruce questions why globalisation has been so bad for the FTSE All Share index versus the S&P500.  Plus a look at CMC Markets H1 results. The FTSE 100 was down -0.9% in the last 5 days, at just above 7,300 with some of the selling coming as the new Chancellor announced his plans for tax […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1| 15/11/22 |HLN, BGEO| Timing the cycle

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Bruce looks at a couple of stocks that have benefited from the US dollar strength / weak pound.  HLN and BGEO. The FTSE 100 was up +0.65% to 7343 in the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were much stronger, +7.7% and 4.9%. Nasdaq has been strong despite the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 11/11/22 |ABF, AGFX | Questions left unanswered

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Bruce suggests that company managements who are reluctant to physically meet investors could be facing a more uncertain outlook. Companies covered ABF and AGFX The FTSE 100 was up +1.4% in the last 5 days to 7296, while the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up +0.8% and +1.0% respectively. The pound weakened slightly versus to 1.138 […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1 | 8/11/22 |ATOM,AFC | A look at hydrogen

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Bruce looks at the FT30 index, which Sharepad has going back to 1935. Plus a couple of hydrogen stocks, that are currently too speculative for him:  ATOM and AFC The FTSE 100 has recovered well in the last 5 days up +2.9%. By contrast, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -4.7% and 2.3% respectively in […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 4/11/22 |LSEG, TCAP| You can’t eat vindication

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Bruce looks at two financial businesses that recently reported Q3 results, both delivering around 7% RoCE. Yet one trades on 5x sales, and the other 0.7x.  LSEG and TCAP. The FTSE 100 is up +0.7% in the last 5 days. Nasdaq100 is down -3.4% and the S&P500 was down -2.2%. Much of that sell-off came […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1 | 1/11/22 |BGEO, CRPR| Costs for growth

Bruce looks at the history of Brompton’s growth, and the trade-offs required to fund expansion. Plus a look at UK banks margin trends and James Cropper CRPR profit warning. The FTSE 100 rose +0.65% in the last 5 days and managed to consolidate above 7,000. Despite US tech stocks reporting a difficult quarter last week, […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 2 | 28/10/22 |SDRY, BARC, HSBA, LLOY, NWG, STAN| Numbers reflect reality

Bruce comments on Superdry’s auditor resignation and summarises Q3 trends at UK banks. The FTSE 100 rose above 7000 to 7,057. Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were around +3.0% and +4.5% over the last 5 days. Brent crude remains at mid $94 per barrel. The UK 10Y bond yield fell to 3.62% and the US […]

Bi-Weekly Market Commentary Part 1| 25/10/22 |AFX, WISE| Volatility subsides

Bruce looks at WISE and AFX, currency traders that are benefiting from the market volatility and rising interest rates.  He compares their investment case to the UK banks reporting this week. Despite all the volatility of the last week, the FTSE 100 was actually flat at 6,937 over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq100 and […]

Weekly Market Commentary 17/10/22 |AT., BDEV, DARK|Raising rates into a recession

Ashtead

Two very different US financial personalities believe that US interest rates are rising too fast.  No doubt bankers and fund managers are talking their own book, but that doesn’t mean they’re wrong.  Stocks covered AT., BDEV, DARK  The FTSE 100 failed to consolidate above 7,000 and was down -3.8% last week. The Nasdaq100 was down […]

Weekly Market Commentary 10/10/22 |IPX, SDRY, TSCO, AGFX, GRG| Coping with drawdowns

sharepad_alarms

Bruce updates a chart Terry Smith first published in the FT in 2014, looking at Tesco EPS progress versus declining Return on Capital.  Other companies featured IPX, SDRY, GRG and AGFX.   The FTSE 100 recovered to just above 7000 last week and the pound recovered to 1.12 to the dollar. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 […]

Weekly Market Commentary 03/10/22 |NFC, ASY, SMV, BGO & BOKU| A look at large caps

Bruce looks at the performance of large cap sectors YTD, and suggests rules of thumb for trying to time the turn in different sectors. Companies covered NFC, ASY, SMV, BGO and BOKU. The FTSE 100 was down -3.3% last week, falling below the 7,000 level. The S&P and Nasdaq100 were both down -1.3%. The UK […]

Weekly Market Commentary 26/09/22 |MOON, FDEV, KWS| Gambling for Resurrection

Bruce suggests that political leaders need a risk manager, to prevent them from increasing risk as a position moves against them.  Companies covered MOON, and computer games companies FDEV and KWS. The FTSE 100 was down -3.1% last week to 7,012. US markets were also weak, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 both down -3.0%. […]

Weekly Market Commentary 20/09/22 |SRC, FEVER, ITM| The second derivative of expectations

Bruce suggests that the rate of change of investors’ expectations is more important than expectations themselves.  Companies covered SRC, and expensive but becoming more reasonably priced FEVR and ITM. The FTSE 100 was down -1% to 7280 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 sold off more steeply down -5.25% and -4.1% respectively. The UK 10Y Govt […]

Weekly Market Commentary 12/09/22 |AFX, EQLS, PCIP|Interest by the pound

With the pound falling by -14% so far this year against the dollar, Bruce looks at two companies that help SME businesses manage currency risk: AFX and EQLS. Plus payments company PCIP. The FTSE was up +1.3% at 7373 last week, with power and commodity companies leading the way Centrica, Glencore, Antofagasta and Anglo American […]

Weekly Market Commentary 05/09/22 |BMS, CBOX, BGO| Winter is coming

Looking at the sectors that have been worst hit by the cost of living crisis, Bruce suggests a sector filter could be used to ‘read across’ where problems are yet to emerge. Companies covered BMS, CBOX and BGO.  The FTSE 100 was down -3.5% last week to 7,210. The S&P500 was down -2.2% and the Nasdaq 100 […]

Weekly Market Commentary 30/08/22 |SMV, KBT, SPE| Interest rates: the first 5,000 years

Central Bankers are having their annual shindig in Jackson Hole, so Bruce looks at the long-term history of interest rates and questions how much policy rates control activity and inflation. Companies covered SMV, KBT and SPE. The FTSE 100 was down -0.7% last week. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 were also down less than -1% over […]

Weekly Market Commentary 22/08/22 | MANU, DARK, TET, GHH | Just a bus stop in Hounslow

Looking at the returns from investing in football clubs, Bruce suggests the key is to identify well managed teams that have developed an effective way of operating. Stocks covered DARK, and profit warnings from TET and GHH. The FTSE 100 was up +0.9% last week to 7,571. The S&P500 was down -0.5%, and the Nasdaq100 […]

Weekly Market Commentary 15/08/22 | HAT, TCAP, OCM | Trust in long time horizons

Bruce discusses how long term compounders capitalise on trust. When applied shrewdly, this can be very rewarding. Companies covered HAT, TCAP and OCN The FTSE 100 was up less than 1% last week to 7,492. The Nasdaq 100 was up +0.7%, while the S&P500 was stronger up +1.5%. The US 10Y government bond yield continued […]

Weekly Market Commentary 08/08/22|BGO, KWS, DUKE|The orthodoxy of St James’s

Bruce suggests that if you’re looking for uncorrelated investment returns, you are better to invest your own money, rather than give it to a poker-playing long-short hedge fund manager. Stocks covered BGO, KWS and DUKE.    The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 7,438. The Nasdaq100 continued to show good momentum +2.9%, but the […]

Weekly Market Commentary 01/08/22| JDG, GAW, BOKU| Whatever it takes…

Bruce suggests that government debt to GDP ratios should include unfunded pension liabilities, and some of the issues from the Eurozone crisis a decade ago remain unresolved.  Companies covered JDG, GAW and BOKU. The FTSE 100 finished the week at 7,423 up +2.0%. The Nasdaq 100 was up +4.5% and the S&P500 +4.3% with July […]

Weekly Market Commentary 25/07/22| SDI, RBGP, HOTC | The capital cycle

Bruce considers whether profit warnings in the insurance and adtech signal that too much capital has been chasing too few opportunities.  Sophisticated data models are no replacement for management turning cautious at the top of the cycle. Stocks covered SDI, RBGP and HOTC profit warning. The FTSE 100 recovered +1.6% last week to 7,276. Markets […]

Weekly Market Commentary 11/07/22| PRV, EQLS, AGFX| The seeds have been planted

Bruce looks at the BoE twice-yearly Financial Stability Report and wonders if the regulator is too sanguine about the risks of stagflation. Companies covered PRV, the industrial filtration company, and forex/payments companies EQLS and AGFX. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,162, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 were up +2.0% and +4.5% respectively. That stock […]

Weekly Market Commentary 04/07/22|SHOE, WISE, DDDD |Containership contango

Bruce sees more trouble on the horizon for the retail sector, fearing heavy discounting of unsold inventory later this year.  Stocks covered SHOE, WISE and a post-mortem on DDDD. The FTSE 100 was down -0.6% last week to 7,160. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 fell -1.66% and -0.27% respectively. The US 10Y Government bond fell back […]

Weekly Market Commentary 27/06/22|STEM, K3C, REC| Wirecard: fraud and flawed

Bruce looks at Dan McCrum’s book on Wirecard and suggests that there are still a couple of details that don’t make sense about the fraud.  Plus upbeat releases from STEM, K3C and REC. The FTSE 100 recovered +1.2% to 7,101 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up 0.9% and flat over the last 5 […]

Weekly Market Commentary 20/06/22|DEVO, FDEV, BOTB| Remembering the days of Pali

Bruce reminisces about the demise of Pali, a firm he worked at in 2008 and looks at a couple of computer games companies (DEVO and FDEV) plus BOTB that reported last week.  Markets had a difficult week with the FTSE 100 was down -3% to 7,114. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 both fell -9% as the […]

Weekly Market Commentary 13/06/22|ORPH, MRK, AO|Life sciences catch the software bug

Bruce looks at the spread of expressions like ‘platform’ and ‘flywheel’ from software companies to other sectors, including life sciences. Companies covered ORPH, MRK and AO. The FTSE 100 was down -1.5% in the last 5 days to 7,418. That’s better than the Nasdaq100 -4.8% and S&P500 down -3.8% over the same time frame. Brent […]

Weekly Market Commentary 30/05/22| AIM, KNOS, RNT, MORE| Analysing the de-rating

Bruce looks at how the market has de-rated on a price to sales metric since Q4 last year. But there are still 111 AIM shares trading on more than 10x revenue.  Companies this week KNOS, MORE and RTN. The FTSE 100 rose +2.5% to 7569 last week. The S&P500 +4% and the Nasdaq100 +3.4% both […]

Weekly Market Commentary 23/05/22| OWIL, EQLS, FUTR, MONY| The value of amnesia

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Bruce ponders the ingredients required to precipitate a systemic crisis, and why memories are so short in financial services.     The FTSE 100 was flat at 7413 over the last 5 days. US markets had a more difficult week with the S&P500 -0.75% and Nasdaq100 -0.60%. The S&P500 is approaching bear market territory down […]

Weekly Market Commentary 16/05/22 |WATR, CCT, TET| Come on Eileen

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With the BoE now suggesting inflation peaks at 10% later this year, Bruce goes back to 1982 when Dexys Midnight Runners were topping the charts to compare household indebtedness then v now. Stocks covered WATR, CCT and TET. The FTSE 100 fell -1.3% to 7286 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -7% and the S&P500 […]

Weekly Market Commentary 09/05/22 |LUCE, RCH, SFOR, LTG| Lazy formulas

Bruce looks at how successful formulas, if copied without thought, can become lazy thinking.  He looks at a profit warnings from last week LUCE and RCH.  Plus a couple of acquisitive “roll-ups” which the auditors delayed signing off the results: SFOR and LTG. The FTSE was down -0.9% at to 7,443 last week. The US […]

Weekly Market Commentary 03/05/22 |ZOO, SWG, SMV| An infinite puzzle with no edge

Bruce discusses the concept of “edge” – now that we all have access to the same information, how can anyone enjoy an advantage? Companies covered this week ZOO, SWG, SMV. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,516 over the last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -2% and -2.4% over the same time period. […]

Weekly Market Commentary 25/04/22 |NFLX, CBOX, SOLI, CAPD| Lion King v Tiger King

Bruce questions whether the value of intangible assets on Netflix’s balance sheet are of the same character as Disney’s intangible assets.  Plus a mix of UK stocks that reported last week CBOX, SOLI and CAPD. The FTSE 100 was down -0.2% to 7,563 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -3.5% as Netflix was the latest […]

Weekly Market Commentary 19/04/22 |ARKK, PZC, MRK, AGFX | Growth Stocks and the St Petersburg Paradox

Bruce digs out an obscure 1957 paper on growth investing, that Warren Buffett refers to when answering a shareholder question at his AGM and applies the thinking to the ARKK Innovation ETF.  Plus PZC, MRK and AGFX trading updates last week. The FTSE 100 closed ahead of the Easter weekend at just above 7,600, that’s […]

Weekly Market Commentary 11/04/22 |DEVO, IGP, AFM, ELIZX | Clubs money can’t buy

This week Bruce takes a look at Elon Musk’s Twitter activism and what the London Stock Exchange might learn from Musk’s other activities. Companies covered computer game publisher DEVO, online identity company IGP and management consultancies AFM and ELIX. The FTSE 100 was 7,619 +1.1% last week. The UK index of blue chips has been […]

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