Category: Jeremy Grime

Weekly Commentary: 11/05/20 – The 50-year view

The 50-year view As equity markets squeeze up Jeremy suggests equities may have further to go on the back of credit markets. A screen of resilient dividend payers finds 3 strong fund managers to be some of the best performers in the current money printing environment. City of London Investment Group is the recovery situation […]

Weekly Commentary: 24/02/20 – Barbell Portfolio

Barbell Portfolio The tax advantages of technology companies and private equity combined with quantitative easing are shrinking stock markets. Until this changes the shrinkage will continue. In this environment a Barbell portfolio is likely to outperform. Jeremy suggests Alpha FX and Non Standard Finance as two companies at polar opposites of the valuation spectrum. Read […]

Weekly Commentary: 20/01/20 – Culture in payments

Culture in Payments There were no spare seats when I arrived at Panmure Gordon’s offices last week for the Non-Standard Finance investor day titled “Culture driven Performance”. The presentation was riddled with keywords such as “Integrity”, “Clarity”, “Respect”, “Trust”, “Empathy” etc. I particularly liked John Van Kuffeler’s description of the loan correspondence he has from […]

Weekly Commentary: 13/01/20 – Culture

Culture Luck plays a part in investing but there is also a theory that you make your luck. Both K3Capital and Dart Group are cyclical businesses which performed strongly in the second half of last year. It could be that they got lucky with the cycle going in their favour or Thomas Cook going bust, […]

Weekly Commentary: 06/01/20 – The Roaring 20’s

The Roaring 20’s Nothing quite starts a new decade as reassuringly as Greggs Vegan Steak Bake causing late night queuing in Newcastle. With Pizza Hut’s vegan pepperoni pizza, Costa’s vegan ham and cheese toastie, KFC’s vegan chicken burger and M&S’ vegan chicken Kiev and Macdonald’s veggie dippers this could be a good decade to be […]

Weekly Commentary: 30/12/19 – Change Alley

Change Alley Suggesting that Scrooge’s drive and self-discipline was something we should aspire to didn’t go down well with my millennial children. I rationalised the barrage of criticism as the product of low rates, plentiful debt and cheap money making the concept of being economical unpopular. Scrooge’s world was one of narrow dark alleyways -similar […]

Weekly Commentary: 14/10/19 – Forex

Forex There are reasons to be gloomy just now. As I walked past Westminster last week the protester carrying an anti-Brexit placard looked forlorn as the extinction rebellion protesters drowned out his signage. Over in Hong Kong the protests are about something else altogether. While in Japan typhoons are disrupting the rugby. It is getting […]

Weekly Commentary: 30/09/19

Liquidity Crunch Across the table in the rather tired looking meeting room, the grey haired but immaculately presented fund manager bit his bottom lip as he prepared to disclose something – telling me he was uncomfortable about what he was about to utter. This was probably the important part of the meeting. He is a […]

Weekly Commentary: 23/09/19

Navigating Change Conservatively Sometimes it can be useful to stand back and take stock so we don’t get those market eyes that can’t see the wood for the trees. It seems with the abandoning of the WeWork IPO the bubble may be drawing to a close. We have had such bubbles before. In the 1680’s […]

Weekly Commentary: 16/09/19

Inefficient Markets I find myself increasingly bullish. Or maybe I have recently had a holiday and by the end of the week all bullishness will have gone.  Seemingly macro fears have led to risk aversion. The FTSE 100 is 7.7% down from its peak in May 18, while the FTSE Small Cap index is 18% […]

Weekly Commentary: 09/09/19

Business Models I found myself wondering whether models become outdated over time. In this age of diversity, governance reporting, and gender indexes I question whether our parliament using whips may be a little outdated. When I was at university, business models were those of manufacturers, distributors and retailers. We didn’t have “Bricks and Clicks”, “Freemium […]

Weekly Commentary: 02/09/19

It’s a bi-polar world Printing money hoping that will engineer inflation has in the past resulted in inflation, but it hasn’t worked. As central banks increase their balance sheets the hope was that banks use the reserves to create money to increase their lending, but that only happens when banks wish to lend and borrowers […]

Weekly Commentary: 27/08/19

The Great British Corporate Sale One of the things the City of London excels at is selling its own to overseas acquirors. Back in the day Messrs Wasserstein and Perella sold themselves to Dresdner Bank to create Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein which didn’t seem to end very well. Warburg sold themselves to Dillon Read until the […]

Weekly Commentary: 19/08/19

Agricultural Investing The nerves were tested last week. Back in Q4 last year the 17% fall in the FTSE 100 was one of those typical draw-downs that happen towards the top of a bull market. It is necessary to have sucked in all the “buy the dip” money before the market can reset finally when […]

Weekly Commentary: 12/08/19

The Narrative of Growth I suspect I am not alone in being trained as a value investor in the 1980’s. That was an era when straws were made of plastic, burgers were made of meat and bonds paid an income. No longer. Today in an era when bonds don’t pay income the trophies go to […]

Weekly Commentary: 05/08/19

In need of boredom Equity investors need to be an optimistic bunch – since equity markets outperform over the long run. Academics Dimson Marsh and Staunton titled their study of 20th century market returns “Triumph of the Optimists”. But sometimes it’s hard. Like last Wednesday when Intu reported a decline in NAV/share to 252p and […]

Weekly Commentary: 29/07/19

Testing times I find this one of the most uncomfortable investing era’s I can recall. The outperformance of growth stocks continues while markets grind higher over a sultry summer. I have always had a secret hankering after the ugly duckling that turns into a swan and so have a natural bias to value. Which has […]

Weekly Commentary: 22/07/19

The Greening of Fund Management It is still useful to contemplate the state of the world over a good lunch as I did last week enjoying a long and slow sunny afternoon with a fund manager friend. We reflected that undoubtedly the investors buying into Beyond Meat, the $10.7bn plant burger company would be the […]

Weekly Commentary: 15/07/19

Where are the Customers’ Yachts? The book “Where are the Customers’ Yachts?” by Fred Schwed was written 75 years ago but as we watch the continuing headlines over Woodford it seems as relevant today as then. It has some very useful investing lessons for us. Three of my favourite lines in the book are as […]

Weekly Commentary: 08/07/19

The Bubble has burst Sometimes we spend so long waiting for something to happen we don’t realise it has started. But I think it has already started. No one rings a bell at market changing points. There are the 1987 and 1929 crashes that are obvious but the top of the technology bubble in 200 […]

Weekly Commentary: 01/07/19

Disruption in the Courts Early for lunch on the 24th floor of Tower 42 in the City I gazed over the tower blocks of the city. When I started work the City buildings stopped at Liverpool Street Station. The area to the north of the station building was rough land inhabited by a flock of […]

Weekly Commentary: 24/06/19

Structural Change in the City It always amazes me how debt can lead to innovation. Humans find ingenious solutions. The Bank of England was founded in 1694 because the 9-year war against France was expensive. Usefully that enabled us to continue to increase the debt which brought about the South Sea Bubble and subsequent crash […]

Weekly commentary: 17/06/19

It’s “avoid the warnings” time Last week saw a few profit warnings. Somero, Ted Baker, Quiz, Pendragon warnings were based on revenue disappointments but I suspect cost pressures are building too at the moment. The trend of increasing warnings appears to be a growth trend with Q1 showing the highest number of warnings in this […]

Weekly Commentary: 10/06/19

Companies with Culture The noise around Woodford’s humiliation last week was deafening. And it was a bad week for Hargreaves Lansdown (-14%). I don’t recall such a lot of noise around a fund manager since the demise of New Star in 2008 having paid a special dividend to shareholders and gearing up into a bear […]

Weekly Commentary: 03/06/19

The “End of Global Trade” Week Last week the talk moved from politics to trade wars. Consensus seems to be that the trade war between the US and China is set to continue for a while. With the UK political situation causing uncertainty which slows management decision making processes there is reason to worry that […]

Weekly commentary: 28/05/19

Time to own value? Unicorns The Unicorns stable door has been left wide open. Beyond Meat, a US loss making protein meat brand, listed in New York in early May rising 163% on its first day of trading valuing it at 27X last year’s revenues. This followed the loss-making Pinterest rising 28% on its first […]