Financial Analyst, former management consultant, equity research analyst Bruce Packard started his career at Credit Suisse followed by various banks and stockbroking firms before quitting The City to work in financial PR, Litigation finance and finally financial education. In 2008 he predicted the nationalisation of the UK banking industry.
I’m a self-invested, low frequency, buy and hold investor focused on quality. As well as writing for ShareScope I like to capture my financial analysis and non-conformist thoughts on my own blog brucepackard.com. I also used to own a craft beer bar in Berlin and for fun play beach volleyball (unlikely to turn professional though).
Following the profit warnings from Fevertree and Creightons, Bruce questions the conventional wisdom that companies with strong brands do well in an inflationary environment. Companies covered CKN, CRL, and TM17. The FTSE 100 was down -1.6% last week to 7,082. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -2.95% and -2.8% respectively. The 2yr – 10yr yield
Bruce looks at the BoE twice-yearly Financial Stability Report and wonders if the regulator is too sanguine about the risks of stagflation. Companies covered PRV, the industrial filtration company, and forex/payments companies EQLS and AGFX. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,162, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 were up +2.0% and +4.5% respectively. That stock
Bruce sees more trouble on the horizon for the retail sector, fearing heavy discounting of unsold inventory later this year. Stocks covered SHOE, WISE and a post-mortem on DDDD. The FTSE 100 was down -0.6% last week to 7,160. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 fell -1.66% and -0.27% respectively. The US 10Y Government bond fell back
Bruce looks at Dan McCrum’s book on Wirecard and suggests that there are still a couple of details that don’t make sense about the fraud. Plus upbeat releases from STEM, K3C and REC. The FTSE 100 recovered +1.2% to 7,101 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were up 0.9% and flat over the last 5
Bruce reminisces about the demise of Pali, a firm he worked at in 2008 and looks at a couple of computer games companies (DEVO and FDEV) plus BOTB that reported last week. Markets had a difficult week with the FTSE 100 was down -3% to 7,114. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 both fell -9% as the
Bruce looks at the spread of expressions like ‘platform’ and ‘flywheel’ from software companies to other sectors, including life sciences. Companies covered ORPH, MRK and AO. The FTSE 100 was down -1.5% in the last 5 days to 7,418. That’s better than the Nasdaq100 -4.8% and S&P500 down -3.8% over the same time frame. Brent
Bruce looks at the performance of the UK economy muddling through WWI and the Spanish flu pandemic, an era when global trade flows and productivity also went into retreat. Stocks cover SFOR, IPX and OMG. The FTSE 100 rose +1.3% to 7592, in a short week due to the Platinum Jubilee. The price of oil
Bruce looks at how the market has de-rated on a price to sales metric since Q4 last year. But there are still 111 AIM shares trading on more than 10x revenue. Companies this week KNOS, MORE and RTN. The FTSE 100 rose +2.5% to 7569 last week. The S&P500 +4% and the Nasdaq100 +3.4% both
Bruce ponders the ingredients required to precipitate a systemic crisis, and why memories are so short in financial services. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7413 over the last 5 days. US markets had a more difficult week with the S&P500 -0.75% and Nasdaq100 -0.60%. The S&P500 is approaching bear market territory down
With the BoE now suggesting inflation peaks at 10% later this year, Bruce goes back to 1982 when Dexys Midnight Runners were topping the charts to compare household indebtedness then v now. Stocks covered WATR, CCT and TET. The FTSE 100 fell -1.3% to 7286 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -7% and the S&P500
Bruce looks at how successful formulas, if copied without thought, can become lazy thinking. He looks at a profit warnings from last week LUCE and RCH. Plus a couple of acquisitive “roll-ups” which the auditors delayed signing off the results: SFOR and LTG. The FTSE was down -0.9% at to 7,443 last week. The US
Bruce discusses the concept of “edge” – now that we all have access to the same information, how can anyone enjoy an advantage? Companies covered this week ZOO, SWG, SMV. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,516 over the last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -2% and -2.4% over the same time period.