Financial Analyst, former management consultant, equity research analyst Bruce Packard started his career at Credit Suisse followed by various banks and stockbroking firms before quitting The City to work in financial PR, Litigation finance and finally financial education. In 2008 he predicted the nationalisation of the UK banking industry.
I’m a self-invested, low frequency, buy and hold investor focused on quality. As well as writing for ShareScope I like to capture my financial analysis and non-conformist thoughts on my own blog brucepackard.com. I also used to own a craft beer bar in Berlin and for fun play beach volleyball (unlikely to turn professional though).
Based on conversations with a first hand source, Bruce believes the narrative about Ukraine may be too optimistic. But would be very happy to be proved wrong in the next week or two if a cease fire is signed AND upheld. Companies covered Fonix Mobile PLC, TP ICAP Group PLC and Litigation Capital Management. The
Bruce remains in risk averse mode, keeping an open mind and updating beliefs to see how the conflict in Ukraine might resolve. He looks at Clarkson, which should benefit from high commodity prices, and also Bango and Funding Circle. The FTSE 100 was up +2.7% to 7,178, having had a very volatile week. The S&P
Bruce looks at the root causes of the conflict in Ukraine, and outlines two scenarios that the Bank of Georgia research team (who know a thing or two about Russian invasions) have discussed. Plus 3 companies reporting last week. “All civil wars are dynastic wars, my lord King; all overseas wars are trade wars…Troy commanded
Bruce looks at UK banks’ FY Dec 2021 results and draws out some themes on revenue, profitability, “one off items”, competition, interest rates and price / book valuation. The FTSE 100 sold off sharply last week down -4% on Thursday last week. US markets were more sanguine with the S&P500 down -1.4% and the Nasdaq100
Bruce remembers a former colleague, who preferred face to face interactions and was rarely at his desk during the afternoon (clue: he wasn’t in the metaverse either). Plus comments on Standard Chartered, HeiQ and Franchise Brand’s bid for Filta. The FTSE was down -1.5% to 7,543 last week. The Nasdaq100 was down -0.6% and the
Bruce suggests that while long term “expensive quality” investments have become increasingly popular as discount rates have fallen, a natural hedge for such a portfolio is bank shares, which could now benefit as rates rise with inflation. The FTSE 100 was up +2% to 7,617 last week. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 were flat. The real
While he is away skiing, Bruce asked ex-fund manager (with 16 years experience) and private Investor Jamie Ward to manage his weekly commentary this week. Jamie looks at the best things about being a private investor compared to being in the Square Mile as well as results from three companies that at some points in
There’s considerable institutional pressure on financial analysts to be positive, but often the most valuable information is negative: what to avoid. Bruce looks at a couple of case studies that reported last week. The FTSE 100 was flat last week, at 7,497. Matt Moulding’s THG fell to 134p, down -10% in the week and now
Bruce looks at Terry Smith’s investor letter, admires his simple process. SharePad is also great research tool for assessing funds like Fundsmith, not just individual companies. Plus 3 companies that reported last week. The FTSE 100 was 7,521, down -0.3% last week. The US markets have sold off much harder last week, with the S&P500
Bruce looks at risk management, and how to react to the discomfort of your positions being underwater. Plus 3 stocks that updated on progress last week: Equals, Franchise Brands and Frenkel Topping. The FTSE 100 was up +1% to 7554, driven by banks and oil companies which have enjoyed a strong start to 2022 (BP
Bruce looks at how 3 ideas he crowded sourced from readers did in 2021, and asks for suggestions for 2022. Plus 4 companies that have been busy with corporate activity (acquisitions, approaches, disposals). The FTSE 100 was up +1% in the first week of 2022 at 7,450. Markets in the US were less positive
Bruce assess his performance for 2021, and notes that he would have been better off doing nothing. He also looks at the skewed return distribution of returns of AIM shares, plus 2 companies that reported positive news last week. The FTSE 100 reached 7,400 on Christmas Eve, up +14% this year, versus the AIM All