Financial Analyst, former management consultant, equity research analyst Bruce Packard started his career at Credit Suisse followed by various banks and stockbroking firms before quitting The City to work in financial PR, Litigation finance and finally financial education. In 2008 he predicted the nationalisation of the UK banking industry.
I’m a self-invested, low frequency, buy and hold investor focused on quality. As well as writing for ShareScope I like to capture my financial analysis and non-conformist thoughts on my own blog brucepackard.com. I also used to own a craft beer bar in Berlin and for fun play beach volleyball (unlikely to turn professional though).
Bruce suggests that political leaders need a risk manager, to prevent them from increasing risk as a position moves against them. Companies covered MOON, and computer games companies FDEV and KWS. The FTSE 100 was down -3.1% last week to 7,012. US markets were also weak, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 both down -3.0%.
Bruce suggests that the rate of change of investors’ expectations is more important than expectations themselves. Companies covered SRC, and expensive but becoming more reasonably priced FEVR and ITM. The FTSE 100 was down -1% to 7280 last week. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 sold off more steeply down -5.25% and -4.1% respectively. The UK 10Y Govt
With the pound falling by -14% so far this year against the dollar, Bruce looks at two companies that help SME businesses manage currency risk: AFX and EQLS. Plus payments company PCIP. The FTSE was up +1.3% at 7373 last week, with power and commodity companies leading the way Centrica, Glencore, Antofagasta and Anglo American
Looking at the sectors that have been worst hit by the cost of living crisis, Bruce suggests a sector filter could be used to ‘read across’ where problems are yet to emerge. Companies covered BMS, CBOX and BGO. The FTSE 100 was down -3.5% last week to 7,210. The S&P500 was down -2.2% and the Nasdaq 100
Central Bankers are having their annual shindig in Jackson Hole, so Bruce looks at the long-term history of interest rates and questions how much policy rates control activity and inflation. Companies covered SMV, KBT and SPE. The FTSE 100 was down -0.7% last week. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 were also down less than -1% over
Looking at the returns from investing in football clubs, Bruce suggests the key is to identify well managed teams that have developed an effective way of operating. Stocks covered DARK, and profit warnings from TET and GHH. The FTSE 100 was up +0.9% last week to 7,571. The S&P500 was down -0.5%, and the Nasdaq100
Bruce discusses how long term compounders capitalise on trust. When applied shrewdly, this can be very rewarding. Companies covered HAT, TCAP and OCN The FTSE 100 was up less than 1% last week to 7,492. The Nasdaq 100 was up +0.7%, while the S&P500 was stronger up +1.5%. The US 10Y government bond yield continued
Bruce suggests that if you’re looking for uncorrelated investment returns, you are better to invest your own money, rather than give it to a poker-playing long-short hedge fund manager. Stocks covered BGO, KWS and DUKE. The FTSE 100 was flat last week at 7,438. The Nasdaq100 continued to show good momentum +2.9%, but the
Bruce suggests that government debt to GDP ratios should include unfunded pension liabilities, and some of the issues from the Eurozone crisis a decade ago remain unresolved. Companies covered JDG, GAW and BOKU. The FTSE 100 finished the week at 7,423 up +2.0%. The Nasdaq 100 was up +4.5% and the S&P500 +4.3% with July
Bruce considers whether profit warnings in the insurance and adtech signal that too much capital has been chasing too few opportunities. Sophisticated data models are no replacement for management turning cautious at the top of the cycle. Stocks covered SDI, RBGP and HOTC profit warning. The FTSE 100 recovered +1.6% last week to 7,276. Markets
Following the profit warnings from Fevertree and Creightons, Bruce questions the conventional wisdom that companies with strong brands do well in an inflationary environment. Companies covered CKN, CRL, and TM17. The FTSE 100 was down -1.6% last week to 7,082. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 were down -2.95% and -2.8% respectively. The 2yr – 10yr yield
Bruce looks at the BoE twice-yearly Financial Stability Report and wonders if the regulator is too sanguine about the risks of stagflation. Companies covered PRV, the industrial filtration company, and forex/payments companies EQLS and AGFX. The FTSE 100 was flat at 7,162, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 were up +2.0% and +4.5% respectively. That stock