Alpesh Patel OBE analyses 29 high-conviction holdings from four elite hedge fund managers, combining institutional stock picks with weekly MACD momentum signals. From standout buy setups to “Daddy Bear” warnings, he highlights where smart money and technicals align – and where investors should stay cautious.
Full stock-by-stock analysis, MACD breakdowns, price targets, and risk flags available exclusively to Alpesh Patel Special Edition subscribers.
THE FOUR FUNDS — WHY THEY MATTER
Most investors track what Warren Buffett owns. That is fine. But there are four hedge fund managers whose track records over the last decade put them in a different category entirely — and right now, they collectively hold 29 stocks at a minimum 5% allocation each. These are not casual positions. When a hedge fund allocates 5% or more of its entire book to a single stock, that is a high-conviction bet from people who have spent their careers being paid to be right.
The four managers are Elliott Investment Management (+354% since March 2020, Sharpe 6.44, $22.6bn AUM); Kopernik Global Investors (+569% since 2016, Sharpe 7.04); Marshfield Associates (+553% since 2016, Sharpe 9.20 — one of the highest Sharpe ratios of any fund on earth); and Abrams Bison Investments (+474% since 2016, Sharpe 6.02). Combined, these managers have outperformed virtually every index and active fund over their track records.
What I have done is take every one of their 29 holdings and run them through a weekly MACD screen. Because knowing what the best funds own is only half the answer. The other half is knowing whether momentum is currently behind those positions or against them. In May 2026, the answer varies enormously across the 29 stocks — and that difference matters.
| Knowing what smart money owns tells you WHERE to look. The MACD tells you WHEN to look seriously. Both matter. Neither alone is enough. |
MAY 2026 — FOUR THINGS DRIVING EVERY STOCK ON THIS LIST
Before getting to individual stocks, four macro forces are cutting across virtually every holding in this screen. Understanding these is not optional context — it is the lens through which every MACD reading and analyst rating below needs to be read.
The first is the China tariff — now at 145% on some Chinese goods and generally confusing on others. This is an active earnings event, not a background risk. Several holdings have direct exposure through supply chains or revenue, and at least one company’s entire 2026 guidance has been functionally invalidated by the gap between what they modelled and what actually happened.
The second is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — now law. It systematically reduces Medicaid reimbursements and Medicare Advantage payment rates. Three of the 29 holdings are directly in the line of fire. One has since delivered an earnings beat that suggests partial recovery; the others remain in uncertainty.
The third is the US–Iran conflict that began on 28 February 2026. Beyond the obvious energy price impact, the conflict is suppressing global debt issuance — which directly affects one of the highest-quality businesses in the entire screen, despite that company just delivering record quarterly results.
The fourth is what these three forces have done collectively to market technicals. Despite strong fundamentals in many of these businesses, 14 of the 29 stocks are currently in weekly MACD bear territory. That is not a reason to panic. It is a reason to be patient.
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THE STANDOUT OF THE MONTH
One stock in this screen delivered the most spectacular earnings beat of the May 2026 reporting season — a 46% beat against consensus estimates, on revenue nearly $1.6bn above expectations, growing at 18% year on year. The weekly MACD reading is the most bullish of all 29 stocks. The business was also awarded an exclusive strategic designation by one of the world’s largest technology companies in March 2026.
It sits at the intersection of two structural growth trends that are still in early innings. Analyst targets from major banks range from $200 to $271. It passes on quality metrics, momentum, and value simultaneously — which, in May 2026, is rare.
| 🔒 AVAILABLE TO ALPESH PATEL SPECIAL EDITION SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Full company name and ticker | Complete MACD analysis with exact readings | Price targets from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley | Key risks — including the one yellow flag that warrants monitoring | 12-month bull, base, and bear case scenarios Upgrade at sharescope.co.uk/alpeshpatel to unlock the full analysis |
THE CONFIRMED BUY SETUPS — MACD AND FUNDAMENTALS ALIGNED
Three stocks in this screen currently meet both the fundamental quality criteria and the technical momentum test simultaneously. One is an energy company that has just received fresh Buy ratings from two major investment banks following a highly positive investor day. One is a semiconductor equipment business whose significant legal overhang was removed in February 2026. The third is the standout covered above.
These are the names where the hedge fund conviction, the analyst community, and the weekly MACD are all pointing in the same direction. That combination does not happen often. When it does, it is worth paying attention.
| 🔒 AVAILABLE TO ALPESH PATEL SPECIAL EDITION SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
All three confirmed buy setups with full ticker, price, and MACD readings | Snowflake quality ratings and fair value discounts | Analyst changes with exact dates and price targets | What to watch — the specific risk that could change the thesis for each Upgrade at sharescope.co.uk/alpeshpatel to unlock the full analysis |
QUALITY IN BEAR TERRITORY — THE PATIENCE TEST
Some of the best businesses in this entire screen are currently in weekly MACD bear territory. That is not a sell signal for long-term holders. It is a ‘do not add new money yet’ signal. The distinction matters, because two of these are among the highest-quality businesses trading in the US market — businesses with operating margins above 60%, five-year returns on invested capital above 40%, and analyst consensus that is almost unanimously bullish.
The bear crosses in these cases are macro-driven, not fundamental. The businesses have not deteriorated. The market has sold off broadly. When the macro pressure lifts — and it will — these will be among the first to recover technically. The question is whether you have identified them before that happens.
| 🔒 AVAILABLE TO ALPESH PATEL SPECIAL EDITION SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
The two payment network giants both currently in bear territory — full MACD and fundamental analysis | The credit ratings company with record Q1 results and a bear cross — and why management says it will reverse | Exact MACD levels, analyst targets, and the specific signals to watch for the recovery | Risk flags — including the one DOJ investigation that makes one of these more complex than the chart alone suggests Upgrade at sharescope.co.uk/alpeshpatel to unlock the full analysis |
THE DADDY BEARS — WHERE NOT TO ADD MONEY RIGHT NOW
A Daddy Bear signal means the weekly MACD is below the signal line and both lines are negative. This is the confirmed bear configuration. Three stocks in this screen are in Daddy Bear territory. One has fallen over 50% from its highs. One is down 28% from its peak with debt that is not covered by operating cash flow. One represents a structural industry headwind that goes beyond the current macro environment.
The correct response to a Daddy Bear is not to buy the dip. It is to review trailing stops and wait for the monthly MACD to cross positive from a genuinely oversold base. That cross is the signal — not the price, and not the narrative.
| 🔒 AVAILABLE TO ALPESH PATEL SPECIAL EDITION SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
All three Daddy Bear stocks identified with full analysis | Why each is in bear territory — and whether it is cyclical or structural | The specific monthly MACD conditions that would change the picture | Risk-ranked summary: which is highest risk, which has most recovery potential Upgrade at sharescope.co.uk/alpeshpatel to unlock the full analysis |
THE TARIFF CASUALTY — ONE STOCK WHOSE GUIDANCE IS NOW WORTHLESS
One consumer appliances company in this screen doubled in share price over the past twelve months. It has strong product innovation, growing international revenues, and scores well on quality metrics. It also built its entire February 2026 earnings guidance on a specific assumption about the China tariff rate. That assumption was wrong by a factor of more than fourteen.
The company has been shifting production to Southeast Asia. Those countries also face their own tariffs. The full margin impact has not yet been communicated to investors. A guidance revision is almost certainly coming. The weekly MACD is already weakening.
| 🔒 AVAILABLE TO ALPESH PATEL SPECIAL EDITION SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Full company name, ticker, and current price | Exact tariff exposure breakdown — what was modelled vs what is real | Production shift analysis — Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia and the residual tariff problem | MACD reading and what to watch before considering any position Upgrade at sharescope.co.uk/alpeshpatel to unlock the full analysis |
ALL 29 STOCKS — MACD SNAPSHOT
Here is where each of the 29 holdings stands on the weekly MACD in May 2026. Tickers and directional signals are shown. Full analysis — including exact MACD readings, price targets, analyst changes, risk flags, and 12-month scenarios — is available to Alpesh Patel Special Edition subscribers.
| # | Company | MACD Signal | Detail |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX | STRONGLY BULLISH ▲ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | Bullish ▲ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| SU | Suncor Energy | Bullish ▲ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| ROST | Ross Stores | Bullish ✓ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| CMI | Cummins | Bullish — rising ▲ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| RRC | Range Resources | Bullish (VGI screen) | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| UNH | UnitedHealth | Recovering ↗ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| MCO | Moody’s | Bear cross ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Softening ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| V | Visa | Bear cross ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| MA | Mastercard | Bear cross ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| AZO | AutoZone | Fresh bear cross ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| ORLY | O’Reilly Auto | Near bear ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| COF | Capital One | Bear cross ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| NYT | New York Times | Borderline → | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| HCA | HCA Healthcare | Bearish divergence ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| PGR | Progressive | DADDY BEAR ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| DPZ | Domino’s Pizza | DADDY BEAR ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| CNC | Centene | DADDY BEAR ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| LUV | Southwest Airlines | Approaching Bear ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| SN | SharkNinja | Weakening ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| NTR | Nutrien | Fading ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| BEN | Franklin Resources | Fragile → | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| EXE | Expand Energy | Bear cross ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| EXPD | Expeditors Intl | Weakening ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| TFX | Teleflex | Attempting recovery ↗ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters | Recovering ↗ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| SA | Seabridge Gold | Declining ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
| NG | NovaGold | Declining ▼ | Full analysis: APSE only 🔒 |
HOW TO USE SHARESCOPE TO TRACK THESE YOURSELF
- On APSE check against my value-growth-income number. You want 7 or higher for quality.
- The MACD is already set up the way I like it on APSE
| The stocks in this article are held at 5%+ by managers with Sharpe ratios most professional funds cannot match. That tells you the quality of the starting universe. The MACD tells you which ones have momentum behind them right now. Use both. |
| Want the Full Analysis?
The Alpesh Patel Special Edition gives you the complete stock-by-stock breakdown — exact MACD readings, analyst price targets, risk flags, and 12-month scenarios for all 29 holdings. Plus monthly articles, the APSE filter layouts pre-loaded in ShareScope, and exclusive access to the full screening methodology. |
Alpesh Patel OBE | @alpeshbp | www.alpeshpatel.com/sharescope
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This article is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell shares or other investments. Do your own research before buying or selling any investment or seek professional financial advice.
