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Bruce Packard

Financial Analyst, former management consultant, equity research analyst Bruce Packard started his career at Credit Suisse followed by various banks and stockbroking firms before quitting The City to work in financial PR, Litigation finance and finally financial education. In 2008 he predicted the nationalisation of the UK banking industry.

I’m a self-invested, low frequency, buy and hold investor focused on quality. As well as writing for ShareScope I like to capture my financial analysis and non-conformist thoughts on my own blog brucepackard.com. I also own a craft beer bar in Berlin for fun and play beach volleyball (unlikely to turn professional though).

Latest Articles

  • Weekly Commentary 18/10/21: The Eagle has Crash Landed 18th October 2021 by Bruce Packard - With the FTSE 100 reaching 7235 last week, the index finally seems to have broken out of the trading range that it has occupied since May. The index’s all time high is 7,903 reached in 2018. ITM, the hydrogen company… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 11/10/21: Wish you were here 11th October 2021 by Bruce Packard - Another volatile week, with the FTSE 100 falling to 6,950 but recovering to 7,080 on Friday. The AIM index is up +24% in the last 12 months, but more recently has given back performance relative to the FTSE 100 +18%… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 04/10/21: Distance and Perspective 4th October 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 had a volatile week, rallying, selling off then recovering to 7,040 last Friday. The Nasdaq100 was down -4% and S&P500 -3.3% last week. US 10y Govt bond yield continued to trend upwards to 1.55% versus a low… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 27/09/21: New tech, old laws 27th September 2021 by Bruce Packard - Markets lurched downwards at the start of last week, with the FTSE 100 falling to 6,906 before recovering to 7,067. Nasdaq and the S&P also recovered during the week to 15,316 and 4,449 both moving less than half a percent.… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 20/09/21: Entities multiplied beyond necessity? 20th September 2021 by Bruce Packard - UK and US markets remain quiet, with the FTSE 100 at 7,013, struggling to keep its nose just above 7,000 last week. There continue to be spikes and drops in some commodities; earlier this year it was Rhodium hitting $25,000… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 13/09/21: I contain multiples 13th September 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 was down -1.4% this week to 7,048. The Nasdaq and S&P500 also fell, but less than -1% each. The FTSE China 50 was up +1% last week, the Mumbai and Russian stock exchanges remain the best performing… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 06/09/21: The Decline in r 6th September 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 was up less than half a percent last week to 7,164, towards the top of the trading range that it has occupied since early May. The Nasdaq 100 was up +1.1% ahead of the S&P500 +0.6%. The… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 31/08/21: Lower profits, improving performance? 31st August 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 was up half a percent last week to 7,124. The Nasdaq 100 had a better week +1.2% and the China 50 rebounded +4.5%, though that index is still down -14% in the last 3 months. The US… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 23/08/21: Freezing and burning cash in a digital age 23rd August 2021 by Bruce Packard - Celebrating the KLF’s anniversary of burning a million pounds on 23rd August 1994.  The FTSE 100 fell 2.5% last week and remains at the level it was in early May, at 7,048. The China 50 Index was down even more… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 16/08/21: The S&P494 16th August 2021 by Bruce Packard - FAMANG share price over past 10 years. Source: SharePad multigraph Bruce looks at how stock market indices can be skewed by a few large winners.  The same goes for portfolio returns.  Stocks covered this week are BOTB’s profit warning, plus… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 09/08/21: What $16 trillion of negative yields are signalling 9th August 2021 by Bruce Packard - Last week the FTSE 100 was up +1.1% to 7,111, Nasdaq was up 1.5% to 15,181, outperforming the S&P 500, up +0.8% to 4,429. Both the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong and the FTSE China 50 Index were up… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 02/08/21: Credit and Contagion 2nd August 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 bobbled about just above 7,000 last week. Nasdaq 100 was down less than half a percent, as strong results from Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple all beat analyst forecasts on the top line. This was offset somewhat by… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 26/07/21: Red flags from China 26th July 2021 by Bruce Packard - Markets sold off at the beginning of last week, with the FTSE 100 falling to 6,849 before recovering to above 7000 at the end of the week. We saw similar sell offs in the Europe and the US markets, including… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 19/07/21: $7trillion price of stability 19th July 2021 by Bruce Packard - The Bank of England released its twice yearly Financial Stability Report last week. The report says that UK bank balance sheets are in much better shape than the 2007-8 crisis and they expect impairments in 2021 to be lower than… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 12/07/21: Beware the prudent man rule 12th July 2021 by Bruce Packard - Just as I thought the FTSE 100 was breaking out of its trading range 7000-7200 markets dipped at the end of last week to leave the FTSE at 7084. The US 10 year Government bond yield fell to 1.33%, down… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 05/07/21: Management Departures 5th July 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 at 7,145 appears to be breaking out of the trading range that it has occupied since the beginning of May. The S&P +15% since the start of the year, is still ahead of the Nasdaq +13% although… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 28/06/21: A year of two halves? 28th June 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 is up +10% since the start of the year, currently at 7,120. The best performing stock in the FTSE 100 in H1 was Royal Mail +72%, followed by Entain +61% and Ashtead +57%. The worst was Fresnillo… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 21/06/21: Diamond hands vs 10x Future 21st June 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 finished the week flat, ending at 7,130. Both Nasdaq and the S&P500 also moved less than 1%; it was almost as if the sun was shining and traders were watching football matches. There were more significant moves… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 14/06/21: Innovation vs disruption 14th June 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE remains range bound, up less than +1% to 7,125 last week, still below its 2021 high of 7,130 reached in early May. The S&P500 was flat at 4,239 and Nasdaq was up +1.4% to 13,960. Though companies are… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 07/06/21: Expectations Gap 7th June 2021 by Bruce Packard - Last week Brent crude was up +4% to $71 per barrel which helped BP +6% and Shell +4% lead the FTSE 100. Since the 7th May high the index has kept a narrow range between 7,130 and 6,950, currently 7,060.… ...more
  • A year of two halves? 6th June 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 is up +10% since the start of the year, currently at 7,120. The best performing stock in the FTSE 100 in H1 was Royal Mail +72%, followed by Entain +61% and Ashtead +57%. The worst was Fresnillo… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 31/05/21: Operating leverage 31st May 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE was quiet remaining just above 7,000 through the week. Looking at the five best performing stocks since the start of the year (Ashstead +53%, Entain +47%, Evraz +38%, Glencore +38%, Lloyds +37%) and the worst five (Tesco -24%,… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 24/05/21: China Prices 24th May 2021 by Bruce Packard - This week I look at Cerillion, the telco billing Group; Sanderson Design Group, the wallpaper and interior design company (previously known as Walker Greenbank); SigmaRoc, which is acquiring concrete quarries, and Games Workshop which needs no introduction to most readers. ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 17/05/21: Aaaaaaaaaaaark 17th May 2021 by Bruce Packard - Markets sold off last week, with the FTSE 100 down -2.3%, S&P 500 -2.8% and Nasdaq 100 -4.5%. The best performing index was Brazil’s Bovespa, which was still up less than 1%. Despite the sell-off being attributed to inflation, the… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 10/05/21: The Beautiful Game 10th May 2021 by Bruce Packard - It’s good to have management with experience of boom and bust cycles, so Bruce looks at two companies run by Chairmen over 80 years old. With the FA Cup and Champions League Final later this month he starts with some… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 03/05/21 Paradigm shift 3rd May 2021 by Bruce Packard - Bruce looks at tech stocks reporting Q1 results in the US, Google vs Facebook, and the resurgence of Microsoft. Plus a mix of UK companies reporting this week, including Tristel, Water Intelligence, HeiQ and Sylvania. ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 26/04/21: A strawberry picker’s market? 26th April 2021 by Bruce Packard - Markets have been very strong recently, so it’s important not to get carried away. Bruce looks at stocks with accrued income, % revenue recognition, acquisition and fair value accounting adjustments. ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 19/04/21: Bittersweet distractors 19th April 2021 by Bruce Packard - Bruce wonders if value vs momentum factors is really the best way to think about companies on the stock market. He also looks at the Novacyt profit warning, The Mission, and two high performance stocks: Volex and Impax. ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 12/04/21: Equity. James Equity. 12th April 2021 by Bruce Packard - We are most of the way through result season for companies with December year ends. Bruce discusses how companies with patchy track records can border on evasive in their RNS disclosure, without quite crossing the line to unacceptable. Often the… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 29/03/21: 12-month rebound 29th March 2021 by Bruce Packard - There have been at least 15 ten baggers since the March low in the UK. Bruce looks at 4 stocks that now have a fair wind behind them, that should be geared into further recovery. ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 22/03/21: Ports and platforms 22nd March 2021 by Bruce Packard - Bruce compares a couple of Direct Carrier Billing (DCB), mobile payment platforms: Boku v Bango. He wonders if platform economics has become too popular, with the benefits well recognised but not downside. Also Ocean Wilsons, the Brazilian (Salvador, Bahia) port… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 15/03/21: Fungible vs flammable 15th March 2021 by Bruce Packard - Bruce looks at the fungible vs non fungible assets, using examples from recent events in the art markets. Stocks covered this week are Kape, Somero and Tremor. ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 08/03/21: Baillie Gifford vs Albert Bridge 8th March 2021 by Bruce Packard - With Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust down 9% last week, Bruce looks at the debate between Lawrence “usually a mistake to sell” Burns of Baillie Gifford and Andrew “take profits” Dickson of Albert Bridge Capital. Companies covered Renishaw, Solid State, K3… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 01/03/21: What has been will be again 1st March 2021 by Bruce Packard - Nasdaq sold off last week, down 7% since the middle of February, though still up since the start of the year. Tesla fell to $680, versus a peak of $896 earlier in February. US 10y yields hit 1.49% last week… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 22/02/21 – All Aboard for Mu Mu Land 22nd February 2021 by Bruce Packard - At midnight, on 1st January this year, the K.L.F. released their back catalogue of music (hits such as 3AM Eternal, Justified and Ancient, Last Train to Trancentral) on Spotify and uploaded their old videos to YouTube. This was their first… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 15/02/21 – Getting high on junk bonds 15th February 2021 by Bruce Packard - Last week Bloomberg reported that junk bond yields in the US fell below 4% the lowest level ever recorded and down from 11.5% peak yield in March last year. This is the opposite direction to the yield on the “risk… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 08/02/21 – The signs are here 8th February 2021 by Bruce Packard - Moonpig IPO’ed last week at 350p, valuing the company at £1.2bn, and the shares rose +24% to 430p the following day. Meanwhile the FT reported that Elon Musk is expecting SpaceX to be valued at $60bn in a funding round… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 01/02/21 – Bored Markets Hypothesis 1st February 2021 by Bruce Packard - Some of the speculative exuberance has spilled over the punch bowl at the cryptocurrency party into a number of glass half empty equities. GameStonk, err I mean GameStop, rose from below $20 a share earlier this month to over $500… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 25/01/21 – Expectation v surprise 25th January 2021 by Bruce Packard - I was initially unimpressed by the UK’s mass vaccination rollout. However it is important to keep updating your beliefs when data is better than you had been expecting and not miss the inflection point. From below 150K per week in… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 18/01/21 – Reincarnation as the bond market 18th January 2021 by Bruce Packard - In the early days of a new Democrat presidency, the President’s campaign manager observed that: “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or a 0.400 baseball hitter. But… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 11/01/21 – Gatekeepers 11th January 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 started the year strongly +6% during the week to 6857. Both the S&P 500 +1.3% to 3804 Nasdaq +1.4% to 13068 were more subdued, though largely unaffected by events in Washington. 10 years ago when I was… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 04/01/21 – Wait and Hope 4th January 2021 by Bruce Packard - “Until the day when God shall deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is summed up in these two words... wait and hope.” – The Count of Monte Cristo The FTSE 100 finished the year at 6460,… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 29/12/20 – Amateurs 29th December 2020 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 closed around 6,487 to 24 December down -15% from the start of the year. From a peak of 7670 in mid-January the index fell by -35% to a low of 4998 at the end of March before… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 21/12/20 – Bidding up Codemasters 21st December 2020 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE stayed level around 6580, while Nasdaq hit a new high of 12752. Bitcoin rose through $20,000 for the first time. I have a dim memory of a party in South London, around 2006-2007, when someone began trying to… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 14/12/20 – Taxes steering behaviour? 14th December 2020 by Bruce Packard - After a strong November and start of December the FTSE 100 was largely unchanged this week at 6566. More broadly, the signs of a cyclical recovery are evident: oil price rose through $50 a barrel and copper and other industrial… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 07/12/20 – Vaccine inoculating risk tolerance 7th December 2020 by Bruce Packard - The best performing FTSE 100 stock last week was Rolls Royce, up 19%. The worst was Unilever down 6.5%, which suggests expectations of a vaccine are inoculating investors against risk. On Nasdaq, the vaccine stock Moderna, was the best performing… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 30/11/20 – The platform bandwagon rolls on 30th November 2020 by Bruce Packard - FTSE weakened slightly to 6300 in the second half of last week, but the bounce of former “Covid losers” continued with Rolls Royce, Glencore, Shell and BP all up 8% in the last 5 days. Nasdaq continued to rise to… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 23/11/20 – Expectations rising 23rd November 2020 by Bruce Packard - We are beginning to see companies operating in the “real” economy announce raised guidance. Somero (exceeding previous revenue guidance by +7%), but also Headlam (materially ahead), Acesso (comfortably ahead). Saga share price was also up +57% during the week. The… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 16/11/20 – Reflation trade 16th November 2020 by Bruce Packard - Banks and other “covid losers” were up strongly at the start of last week as Pfizer announced they believe they have a credible vaccine. US Treasuries 10 year yield jumped up to 0.98% (the red dot on the chart below)… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 09/11/20 – Study silence to learn the music 9th November 2020 by Bruce Packard - The US Presidential election turned out to be closer than most people expected. Nasdaq up almost +10% over the week to 12078. Tech stocks reacted well to the uncertainty, but so did 10 year US Bond yields, which initially jumped… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 02/11/20 – Insiders selling at the top? 2nd November 2020 by Bruce Packard - Last week markets sold off into the rising cases of Covid. The FTSE 100 fell 5% last week to 5561. Large UK banks HSBC and NatWest reported encouraging results, although the sector remained unloved. Directors selling Given the strength of… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 26/10/20 – Paying up for quality? 26th October 2020 by Bruce Packard - Markets recovered slightly towards the end of the week, with the FTSE 100 at 5888. Nasdaq was at 11662. Last week Netflix reported Q3 results, with “only” 2m net new subscribers in the quarter, v 16m in Q1 and 10m… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 19/10/20 – On network effects and fads 19th October 2020 by Bruce Packard - “Fad companies are companies with good business models or good products. So, why would we be interested in shorting a company that has a good product? Because of the threat it presents to others and their likely response to that… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 12/10/20 – On content, distribution and kurtosis 12th October 2020 by Bruce Packard - Last week the FTSE recovered to just over 6000. The (perhaps inappropriately named) Bond film No Time to Die, was postponed until next year by its Hollywood studio, MGM, which has left cinemas in trouble. Cineworld is on the brink,… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 05/10/20 – On uncertainty and confidence 5th October 2020 by Bruce Packard - Last week Andy Haldane at the Bank of England gave an interesting speech on “Economic Anxiety” noting that pessimism can be as contagious as the disease. Haldane is most famous for his “Dog and the Frisbee” speech, which he co-wrote… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 28/09/20 – Beginner’s mind and Buy and Build 28th September 2020 by Bruce Packard - Markets sold off last week as virus case rises rose (FTSE 100 fell to below 5800 before recovering slightly later in the week, Nasdaq down 4% to 10,800). The virus itself seems reasonably predictable, everyone has been expecting cases to… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 21/09/20 – The long journey to exoneration 21st September 2020 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 just about held its level above 6000 last week. Last week was Chilean Independence Day. It is a little known footnote in history that Lord Cochrane, who was involved in the great Stock Exchange scam of 1814… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 14/09/20 – Americans on AIM 14th September 2020 by Bruce Packard - The oil price fell to a 3 month low in the middle of last week to below $40 a barrel. Oil is in contango (futures price higher than spot price) which suggests that despite production cuts, traders are still worried… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 07/09/20 – Come back on St Leger Day 7th September 2020 by Bruce Packard - St Leger Day, as in ““Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger Day”, is approaching. I’ve always wondered who St Leger was, and why a saint might have had a horse race named in his… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 31/08/20 – Let the future ≠ the past 31st August 2020 by Bruce Packard - Nasdaq continued to hit new highs, at 11,666 up +30% from the start of the year and up 2.5x in the last 5 years. I can’t think of anyone suggesting in January that all three of I) Gold, II) Govt… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 24/08/20 – Searching for uncorrelated returns 24th August 2020 by Bruce Packard - Rightmove released a survey showing that the UK housing agreed sales picked up strongly to a record £37bn. A day later Persimmon reported half year results to end of June, adding that reported sales since the start of July were… ...more
  • UK banks – in the eye of the storm? 13th August 2020 by Bruce Packard - Every crisis presents opportunities. A contrarian strategy of buying bank shares during the point of maximum gloom during a recession has often, but not always, been a good idea. It most definitely failed in 2008 when banks needed to raise… ...more