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Bruce Packard

Financial Analyst, former management consultant, equity research analyst Bruce Packard started his career at Credit Suisse followed by various banks and stockbroking firms before quitting The City to work in financial PR, Litigation finance and finally financial education. In 2008 he predicted the nationalisation of the UK banking industry.

I’m a self-invested, low frequency, buy and hold investor focused on quality. As well as writing for ShareScope I like to capture my financial analysis and non-conformist thoughts on my own blog I also own a craft beer bar in Berlin for fun and play beach volleyball (unlikely to turn professional though).

Latest Articles

  • Weekly Commentary 10/05/21: The Beautiful Game 10th May 2021 by Bruce Packard - It’s good to have management with experience of boom and bust cycles, so Bruce looks at two companies run by Chairmen over 80 years old. With the FA Cup and Champions League Final later this month he starts with some… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 03/05/21 Paradigm shift 3rd May 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 was flat this week, struggling to hold its level above 7,000. Nasdaq 100 also was flat at 13,970 with Facebook (+11% over the last 5 days) the best performing stock in the index after reporting Q1 results.… ...more
  • A strawberry picker’s market? 26th April 2021 by Bruce Packard - In this kind of market, it's tough sticking with your process, picking stocks on fundamentals. The US 10y bond yield, having peaked at around 1.75% earlier this month has fallen back to 1.57%, suggesting that some risk aversion is coming… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 19/04/21 Bittersweet distractors 19th April 2021 by Bruce Packard - Bruce wonders if value vs momentum factors is really the best way to think about companies on the stock market. He also looks at the Novacyt profit warning, The Mission, and two high performance stocks: Volex and Impax. ...more
  • Weekly Commentary 12/04/21: Equity. James Equity. 12th April 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE SmallCap index +12.4% is the best performing index so far this year, ahead of the S&P500 +9% and Nasdaq +7%. Surprisingly both the French CAC40 and Germany’s DAX are +11%, despite the well-publicised problems with the vaccine rollout… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 29/03/21 12 month rebound 29th March 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE at 6700 +4% from the start of the year seems to be holding up better than the likes of Nasdaq 12,800 and S&P500 3890, perhaps due to the amount of resource stocks in the index. The price of… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 22/03/21 Ports and platforms 22nd March 2021 by Bruce Packard - Last week James Anderson of Baillie Gifford announced that he is to step down from running the Scottish Mortgage IT. Tom Slater will continue running SMIT and Lawrence Burns, who published the article Why it is usually a mistake to… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 15/03/21 Fungible v flammable 15th March 2021 by Bruce Packard - At $1720 gold is now down 9% since the start of the year, while bitcoin is up 92% to $57K over the same time period. The US treasury yield, which peaked at 1.59% earlier this month, settled at 1.53%. Despite… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 08/03/21 – Baillie Gifford v Albert Bridge 8th March 2021 by Bruce Packard - Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, the Tesla owning £15bn technology fund was down 9% last week. There’s a fun argument going on in the opinion section of the FT, between Lawrence “usually a mistake to sell” Burns of Baillie Gifford and… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 01/03/21 – What has been will be again 1st March 2021 by Bruce Packard - Nasdaq sold off last week, down 7% since the middle of February, though still up since the start of the year. Tesla fell to $680, versus a peak of $896 earlier in February. US 10y yields hit 1.49% last week… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 22/02/21 – All Aboard for Mu Mu Land 22nd February 2021 by Bruce Packard - At midnight, on 1st January this year, the K.L.F. released their back catalogue of music (hits such as 3AM Eternal, Justified and Ancient, Last Train to Trancentral) on Spotify and uploaded their old videos to YouTube. This was their first… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 15/02/21 – Getting high on junk bonds 15th February 2021 by Bruce Packard - Last week Bloomberg reported that junk bond yields in the US fell below 4% the lowest level ever recorded and down from 11.5% peak yield in March last year. This is the opposite direction to the yield on the “risk… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 08/02/21 – The signs are here 8th February 2021 by Bruce Packard - Moonpig IPO’ed last week at 350p, valuing the company at £1.2bn, and the shares rose +24% to 430p the following day. Meanwhile the FT reported that Elon Musk is expecting SpaceX to be valued at $60bn in a funding round… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 01/02/21 – Bored Markets Hypothesis 1st February 2021 by Bruce Packard - Some of the speculative exuberance has spilled over the punch bowl at the cryptocurrency party into a number of glass half empty equities. GameStonk, err I mean GameStop, rose from below $20 a share earlier this month to over $500… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 25/01/21 – Expectation v surprise 25th January 2021 by Bruce Packard - I was initially unimpressed by the UK’s mass vaccination rollout. However it is important to keep updating your beliefs when data is better than you had been expecting and not miss the inflection point. From below 150K per week in… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 18/01/21 – Reincarnation as the bond market 18th January 2021 by Bruce Packard - In the early days of a new Democrat presidency, the President’s campaign manager observed that: “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or a 0.400 baseball hitter. But… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 11/01/21 – Gatekeepers 11th January 2021 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 started the year strongly +6% during the week to 6857. Both the S&P 500 +1.3% to 3804 Nasdaq +1.4% to 13068 were more subdued, though largely unaffected by events in Washington. 10 years ago when I was… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 04/01/21 – Wait and Hope 4th January 2021 by Bruce Packard - “Until the day when God shall deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is summed up in these two words... wait and hope.” – The Count of Monte Cristo The FTSE 100 finished the year at 6460,… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 29/12/20 – Amateurs 29th December 2020 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 closed around 6,487 to 24 December down -15% from the start of the year. From a peak of 7670 in mid-January the index fell by -35% to a low of 4998 at the end of March before… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 21/12/20 – Bidding up Codemasters 21st December 2020 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE stayed level around 6580, while Nasdaq hit a new high of 12752. Bitcoin rose through $20,000 for the first time. I have a dim memory of a party in South London, around 2006-2007, when someone began trying to… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 14/12/20 – Taxes steering behaviour? 14th December 2020 by Bruce Packard - After a strong November and start of December the FTSE 100 was largely unchanged this week at 6566. More broadly, the signs of a cyclical recovery are evident: oil price rose through $50 a barrel and copper and other industrial… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 07/12/20 – Vaccine inoculating risk tolerance 7th December 2020 by Bruce Packard - The best performing FTSE 100 stock last week was Rolls Royce, up 19%. The worst was Unilever down 6.5%, which suggests expectations of a vaccine are inoculating investors against risk. On Nasdaq, the vaccine stock Moderna, was the best performing… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 30/11/20 – The platform bandwagon rolls on 30th November 2020 by Bruce Packard - FTSE weakened slightly to 6300 in the second half of last week, but the bounce of former “Covid losers” continued with Rolls Royce, Glencore, Shell and BP all up 8% in the last 5 days. Nasdaq continued to rise to… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 23/11/20 – Expectations rising 23rd November 2020 by Bruce Packard - We are beginning to see companies operating in the “real” economy announce raised guidance. Somero (exceeding previous revenue guidance by +7%), but also Headlam (materially ahead), Acesso (comfortably ahead). Saga share price was also up +57% during the week. The… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 16/11/20 – Reflation trade 16th November 2020 by Bruce Packard - Banks and other “covid losers” were up strongly at the start of last week as Pfizer announced they believe they have a credible vaccine. US Treasuries 10 year yield jumped up to 0.98% (the red dot on the chart below)… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 09/11/20 – Study silence to learn the music 9th November 2020 by Bruce Packard - The US Presidential election turned out to be closer than most people expected. Nasdaq up almost +10% over the week to 12078. Tech stocks reacted well to the uncertainty, but so did 10 year US Bond yields, which initially jumped… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 02/11/20 – Insiders selling at the top? 2nd November 2020 by Bruce Packard - Last week markets sold off into the rising cases of Covid. The FTSE 100 fell 5% last week to 5561. Large UK banks HSBC and NatWest reported encouraging results, although the sector remained unloved. Directors selling Given the strength of… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 26/10/20 – Paying up for quality? 26th October 2020 by Bruce Packard - Markets recovered slightly towards the end of the week, with the FTSE 100 at 5888. Nasdaq was at 11662. Last week Netflix reported Q3 results, with “only” 2m net new subscribers in the quarter, v 16m in Q1 and 10m… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 19/10/20 – On network effects and fads 19th October 2020 by Bruce Packard - “Fad companies are companies with good business models or good products. So, why would we be interested in shorting a company that has a good product? Because of the threat it presents to others and their likely response to that… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 12/10/20 – On content, distribution and kurtosis 12th October 2020 by Bruce Packard - Last week the FTSE recovered to just over 6000. The (perhaps inappropriately named) Bond film No Time to Die, was postponed until next year by its Hollywood studio, MGM, which has left cinemas in trouble. Cineworld is on the brink,… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 05/10/20 – On uncertainty and confidence 5th October 2020 by Bruce Packard - Last week Andy Haldane at the Bank of England gave an interesting speech on “Economic Anxiety” noting that pessimism can be as contagious as the disease. Haldane is most famous for his “Dog and the Frisbee” speech, which he co-wrote… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 28/09/20 – Beginner’s mind and Buy and Build 28th September 2020 by Bruce Packard - Markets sold off last week as virus case rises rose (FTSE 100 fell to below 5800 before recovering slightly later in the week, Nasdaq down 4% to 10,800). The virus itself seems reasonably predictable, everyone has been expecting cases to… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 21/09/20 – The long journey to exoneration 21st September 2020 by Bruce Packard - The FTSE 100 just about held its level above 6000 last week. Last week was Chilean Independence Day. It is a little known footnote in history that Lord Cochrane, who was involved in the great Stock Exchange scam of 1814… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 14/09/20 – Americans on AIM 14th September 2020 by Bruce Packard - The oil price fell to a 3 month low in the middle of last week to below $40 a barrel. Oil is in contango (futures price higher than spot price) which suggests that despite production cuts, traders are still worried… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 07/09/20 – Come back on St Leger Day 7th September 2020 by Bruce Packard - St Leger Day, as in ““Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger Day”, is approaching. I’ve always wondered who St Leger was, and why a saint might have had a horse race named in his… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 31/08/20 – Let the future ≠ the past 31st August 2020 by Bruce Packard - Nasdaq continued to hit new highs, at 11,666 up +30% from the start of the year and up 2.5x in the last 5 years. I can’t think of anyone suggesting in January that all three of I) Gold, II) Govt… ...more
  • Weekly Commentary: 24/08/20 – Searching for uncorrelated returns 24th August 2020 by Bruce Packard - Rightmove released a survey showing that the UK housing agreed sales picked up strongly to a record £37bn. A day later Persimmon reported half year results to end of June, adding that reported sales since the start of July were… ...more
  • UK banks – in the eye of the storm? 13th August 2020 by Bruce Packard - Every crisis presents opportunities. A contrarian strategy of buying bank shares during the point of maximum gloom during a recession has often, but not always, been a good idea. It most definitely failed in 2008 when banks needed to raise… ...more